Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 20 is the final mountain stage of this years race. It takes place on Saturday 27th May – one day before the race ends in Milan.
I picked the stage right on Friday – the breakaway won – it’s just a shame the riders I tipped missed out. Well done Mikel Landa.
On to the final mountain stage and a potentially proper Maglia Rosa showdown with 6 riders within 90 seconds of the race lead.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 20 – Stage Profile
The 20th stage of the 2017 Giro is the final mountain stage – “phew” say the riders! Only the second ITT of the race is left after this stage.
Stage 20 is 190kms long from Pordenone to Asiago.
It looks like another of those stages where the break may survive and the GC battle happens behind.
There are three climbs of note in the stage. A category 4 at 37.3kms. The next 60kms feature gradually rising roads with one or two small bumps.The days break should be able to build a decent lead in this part of the course.
Then the racing starts proper. The category 1 Monte Grappa climb will test the riders legs at 24.5kms and around 6%. A similar descent awaits the riders once they peak this brute of a mountain. A short valley section leads to the second category 1 climb of the day. This is the Foza – 14kms at 6%. This might be the last chance for the GC riders to try to make a move and grab some time on their rivals. Oddly, the stage then has a further 15kms on a plateau section. Could there be a small sprint from a breakaway of from the GC battle for the stage win?
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 20 – Favourites
This really has to be a GC battle with 4 riders now in serious contention for the Maglia Rosa and two a little further back.
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) now leads the race by 38 seconds. I would estimate he needs at least another minute on second placed Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) to have any chance of holding onto the lead on stage 21’s ITT. The only chance of that happening is for Movistar to ride at high tempo into the Monte Grappa and continue if possible all the way to the early slopes of the Foza climb. As we saw on stage 19 it is possible to gain a minute on Dumoulin on the final climb. He is joint second favourite for the stage at 7.0 – but the final 15km doesn’t suit him.
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) sits in 3rd place but will also need to gain more time prior to the ITT. Could we see his team and Movistar combine to try to attack Dumoulin once more? Thus far in the Giro he has not been able to beat Quintana on a climb – even with Quintana not at 100%. I cannot see that changing tomorrow unless he has another ‘miracle‘ like last year. Nibali still trails Dumoulin by 5 seconds and will need to gain at least 90-100 seconds on him to stand any chance of beating Tom overall. Nibali is 4th favourite at 10.0 but can he escape before the final flat section – I have my doubts.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) attacked late on the final climb on Friday gaining time on the other three in this section. That was the second stage in a row he was able to gain time in the final kms of the stage. Pinot had a terrible out of character ITT earlier in the Giro but has the recent results to suggest he should gain time on Nibali and Quintana on Sunday. He too must attack on Saturday’s stage and looks the value of this group at 7.50. If he can get away like the last two stages then he has the power to stay clear on the run-in to the finish. He does look the best of this group right now.
Dumoulin’s task is straightforward – do not lose more than a minute to any of these three riders. Then barring a mechanical or accident he dominates the stage 21 ITT and wins the Pink Jersey. Sounds easy but stage 20 is longer at 190kms – can he keep up if the racing is full-bore? The final 15kms will be good for Dumoulin and odds of 17.0 look pretty reasonable to me.
How important might the bonus seconds be? Were Quintana to win the stage a minute in front of Dumoulin – the 10 seconds bonus would give him a little extra buffer for the ITT.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) and Dominico Pozzovivo (AG2R La Mondiale) round out the top 6 at 1:21 and 1:30 respectively. They both lack the ITT prowess to be a serious threat to win the Giro so they may get some freedom to attack on the Foza if they are with the elite front GC group. They might be decent shouts for an EW stage win bet – Zakarin at 15.0 and Pozzovivo at 19.0.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 20 – Outsiders
Obviously, a break will go up the road in front of the GC battle. The most prominent breakaway riders in the Giro were pretty much all present in the break on stage 19. A number of them will be too exhausted to go again or have already fulfilled their aims for the race. It is possible we get a stage like Friday with a break way out in front contesting the stage win. If so the list of possible candidates for the break/win is similar to previous stages.
The other riders in the top 15-20 places will also be looking to secure their overall GC places. Their teams priorities may shift to one of protection rather than attacking.
The three riders in the mix for the Young Riders Jersey might be good choices for the stage win. Adam Yates (Orica-Scott) has a 28 second advantage over Bob Jungels (Quick Step-Floors) and two minutes on Davide Formolo (Canondale-Drapac). Jungels is the superior ITT rider so Yates will be looking to increase the time between them on the final climb on Saturday. The three are far enough down on GC (Yates is 8th at 6:35) that they might be allowed to have their own fight around the GC battle. Yates and Jungels are both at 34.0 so the EW is in play.
Stage favourite is Mikel Landa (Team Sky) at 4.50. Can he really go in the break again though is the big question? The KOTM jersey is secure and he has his stage win so I don’t see the need for him to attack again.
I do feel Astana will be gung-ho to get the stage win. They are the big team that is really missing out on any podium plaudits. They had two men in Friday’s break and they should be prominent again. Luis Leon Sanchez is at 29.0 (but does he have the energy to attack for an umpteenth time?) and Dario Cataldo is at 67.0. They seem the most likely choices.
The wildcard teams, Dimension Data, Bora-Hansgrohe, UAE Emirates and Canondale-Drapac will also want to be up front in the race. They have all consistently placed riders in breaks. The tricky part as a tipster is knowing which ones are fresh after 19 days racing.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 20 – Tips
This stage could go in so many different directions. I’ll bet on a few riders with small stakes. One in the GC battle and three outsiders to win from a break.
WON – Bet on Thibaut Pinot to win stage 20 with a 1.0/10 stake at 7.50 with Bet365.
Back Maxime Monfort to win stage 20 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Jacques Janse Van Rensburg to win stage 20 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.0 with Bet365.
Back Valerio Conte to win stage 20 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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