Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 3 takes place on Sunday and is the third and final stage on the island of Sardinia. Monday is a transfer day as the race moves to Sicily for the 4th stage on Tuesday.
Stage 2 was a complete dud. The TV commentators were surprised nobody attacked from the peloton on the final climb. Most of the sprinters got a fairly easy run on a stage where they probably should all have been dropped. They will be happy once more on Sunday.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 3 – The Profile
Stage 3 is the shortest of the Sardinian stages at 149kms. The riders start in Tortoli and finish in Cagliari on what is essentially a flat stage.
The days racing should culminate with a bunch sprint. Of course stage 1 was expected to end with a big sprint and that never materialised and a lone rider pipped the group.
The profile suggests a classic Grand Tour stage. A group of riders will form a break. It will include riders from the wildcard teams and from teams with no GC challenger. The aim will be to win the TV sprints and the KOTM points on the category 4 climb at Capo Boi (107kms).
This should be a fast stage assuming the headwinds that marred stage 1 are absent. The next stage that has the potential to be a bunch sprint is stage 5 on Wednesday. I would be stunned if the sprint teams mess this finale up. The only danger for the sprinters is the presence of cross-winds on Sunday.
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Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 3 – Favourites
This group is effectively the same as for stage 1.
Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step Floors) really disappointed on stage 1 where many, including me, had him as favourite. His leadout train became disjointed at the 3km point and Gaviria never really got on terms with his rivals. When it came to the sprint for second it looked like he never tried. He was clearly mouthing an expletive when crossing the line. Again, on stage 2 he looked ideally placed but once Andre Greipel passed him Gaviria seemed to pedal soft i.e. give up. Gaviria did finish 4th but his team hoped for much more. Gaviria can be backed as high as 5.0 for stage 3 so the EW just about works.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) finished 3rd on stage 1 trailing in behind Ewan in the sprint for the runner-up place. He made amends on stage 2 winning the bunch sprint and taking the Maglia Rosa in the process. This is the first time in his career that he has worn the Pink Jersey. He has two things in his favour over the other sprinters – experience and an elite lead out train. Stage 2 should be won by Greipel or Ewan. Greipel is 2nd favourite to win at 3.0. No EW value in that price.
Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) comfortably won the sprint for 2nd place on stage 1. He was perfectly placed on stage 2 to go one better. A bump with Gaviria led to Ewan pulling his left foot off his peddle inside the last 2oo metres. That blew his chances of contesting the sprint and he finished in 9th place. He will be smarting and hoping to get his stage win on Sunday. Ewan opens as favourite to win the stage at 2.50. That is a win only bet.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 3 – Outsiders
Sam Bennett (Bora-Hansgohe) is battling illness and was yo-yoing off the back of the peloton throughout stage 2 on Saturday. Stage 3 is more straight-forward and the profile is more forgiving. However, you would feel Bennett would need to be 100% to beat the big three on Sunday. Odds of 23.0 look too short.
Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek-Segafredo) sat towards the back of the peloton on stage 2 – especially on the two categorised climbs. He was eventually dropped by the main group but is another that will benefit with the more benign profile on Sunday. Odds of 17.0-23.0 just tempt me for a small EW bet. His 4th on stage 1 was essentially 3rd place in the actual sprint.
Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo) leads the Youth Jersey standings after two stages. He has two top 10’s so far with a 3rd place finish on stage 2. Stuyven is showing the best sprint speed of his racing career and must now be considered as a threat for stage wins. The bookies don’t think Stuyven can challenge the big names on Sunday and have him priced between 26.0-33.0. I tend to agree with them.
Sacha Modolo (UAE Team Emirates) made the top 5 on stage 1 but was outside the top ten on Saturday. He struggled, like Nizzolo and Bennett with the hills. Sunday’s profile will be much better suited for Modolo and he should be back in contention for the win. Odds of 15.0-17.0 show that the bookies see him as an outsider once more.
Roberto Ferrari (UAE Team Emirates) was able to take advantage of the Ewan/Gaviria bump in the sprint on Saturday to grab 3rd place. His odds for stage 3 are in the 26.0-33.0 range which opens the EW bet. I’m not keen however as Nizzolo and Modolo should be able to feature on Sunday.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 3 – Tips
PLACED – Back Giacomo Nizzolo to win stage 3 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.0 with Skybet.
Bet on Andre Greipel to win stage 3 with a 2.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 3.0 with Skybet.
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