Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 8 has an eerily similar finishing profile to stage 6. The 8th stage on Saturday 13th May will likely be a cagey affair ahead of Sunday’s mountain top finish.
Two stages in a row my stage winner pick has lost by less than a wheel. Let us hope for better on Saturday.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 8 – Stage Profile
As we can see on the profile stage 8 is a hilly stage. The stage is 189kms in length. The days racing starts in Molfetta and finishes in Peschici.
The first half of the stage is flat. This only changes at the 84km mark when the riders start the category 2 Monte Sant’Angelo climb. Look for the riders high in the KOTM classification to attempt to get into the days break as there are big points on offer here.
A long descent is followed by a sharks tooth like set of smaller climbs before the riders reach the category 4 Coppa Santa Tecla climb at 143kms. The next 35kms are relatively flat before the riders reach the finale.
A short climb is peaked at 183kms. This is followed by a descent into the final climb into the finish line at Peschici itself.
The Peschici climb is 1.5kms in length (see right) and gets steeper the higher the riders climb.
The average gradient is 5.7% but the final 500 metres are around 12%.
There is nothing for the sprinters in stage 8. They have no chance of winning on this climb. The big question is whether the GC teams allow a breakaway to take stage honours. I have a feeling the break succeeds as the GC riders will be more concerned with stage 9 (mountain top finish) and then stage 10 on Tuesday (the first ITT). If the right riders form a break then I feel it has a high chance of success on stage 8.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 8 – Breakaway Riders
Wild-card Teams
Look for riders from the wildcard teams of Bardiani CSF, CCC Sprandi Polkowice, Gazpron-Rusvelo and Wilier Triestina-Selle Italia to try to get into the days break. These are all at the Giro by invite and want to use this world level stage to promote themselves and their sponsors. The best way to do this is to be in a break and hopefully win a stage.
Bardiani CSF in particular will look to feature with their entire roster of riders in this race being homegrown. The tricky thing is choosing which rider from these teams. I will select a couple of riders from these four teams that we should consider as possible breakaway threats.
Bardiani CSF – this is guess-work to an extent but Enrico Barbin and Lorenzo Rota haven’t been in a break yet so they should be the freshest riders form the team. Barbin can be backed at 251.0 and Rota at 401.0
For CCC Sprandi Polkowice I would look at Michal Schlegel and Marcin Biabolocki. Both are strong riders that would work well in a break. Schlegal can be backed at 251.0 and Biabolocki doesn’t appear in the early market.
Gazpron-Rusvelo – they’ve been in every break so far on sprint stages. Alexander Foliforov was expected to be a KOTM challenger but has yet to feature in that competition. He could make his move on stage 8. Sergey Lagutin is my second choice from Gazpron. Lagutin is at 126.0 and Foliforov at 151.0
Wilier Triestina-Selle Italia- had a rider in the break on stage 7. I will suggest two of their Italian riders for stage 8 – Matteo Busato (no odds in the early market) and Ilia Koshovoy (odds of 251.0).
KOTM Challengers
Stage 8 is perfect for Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) to move up in this classification. Even if the peloton decides to chase down the break it will clear the category 2 climb before any close down. That means decent points are available in KOTM race. It is possible his team-mate and current classification runner-up Daniel Teklehaimanot features as well. Fraile has odds of 41.0 Teklehaimanot is at 126.0.
Jan Polanc (UAE Team Emirates) may also now have designs on this classification following his stunning stage win on Sunday. Polanc currently holds the KOTM Jersey and he may well now look to defend it going forwards. Odds of 201.0 have great EW potential.
Other Teams Looking for a Stage Win
Canondale-Drapac chased the break for a long time on stage 6 but came up empty. They are perfectly placed in the Team Classification but they need a win of some sort at this level. Their last win was a long time ago. Look for one of their riders that has lost time like Alex Howes or even Pierre Rolland to possibly feature. They still have a deep group of climbers to support Davide Formolo and Michael Woods with their GC aspirations. Rolland is priced at 81.0 and Howes at 151.0.
Trek-Segafredo and Jasper Stuyven will be smarting from losing out on the win on stage 6. Surely they have to try again but with different riders this time – say Julien Bernard. Sadly Bernard does not have a price in the early betting markets.
Astana may also try to get a rider into the break. I feel though that their riders are better suited to one of the hilly stages in week 2.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 8 – GC Favourites
I think the break succees but here are some of the odds of the GC riders for stage 8.
We need to look at the results on stage 6 to have an idea of the GC types that could feature as stage winner if they bring the race back together. Remember that 4 breakaway riders held off the peloton on stage 4.
Michael Woods (Canondale-Drapac) – 5th on stage 5. He can climb and is within touch of the race lead but it is uncertain how he will go in the third week. He is second favourite for stage 8 at 8.50;
Adam Yates (Orica-Scott) – 6th on stage 6 – 3rd overall and can cover this type of final climb very quickly. Bonus seconds could give him the race lead. Stage favourite at 8.0;
Bob Jungels (Quick-Step Floors) – 8th on stage 6. Defending the race lead so looking for bonus seconds if possible. Odds at 34.0 for stage 8;
Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) – 9th on stage 6. My 300/1 pick for stage 6 was closer to the stage win than expected. He can be quick on hills like this finale but his odds at 29.0 hold less value than those from stage 6;
Gerraint Thomas (Team Sky) – 10th on stage 6 and 2nd overall. Like Yates, bonus seconds could elevate Thomas to the Maglia Rosa. He can be backed at 26.0.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 8 – Tips
I’m going for 5 breakaway riders for stage 8. It is a gamble but all 5 of these riders are far enough down on GC to be allowed a lot of leeway if they get into a break.
Bet on Pierre Rolland to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Bet365.
Back Enrico Barbin to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 251.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Alexander Foliforov to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Bet365.
Back Ilia Koshovoy to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 251.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Jan Polanc to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.0 with Bet365.
Back all 5 here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
unlucky on last two races but you have really good predictions, keep it up
Hi Nikolas,
Thank you for the kind words. Sport can be a little frustrating. Sometimes it is a matter of inches or tenths of seconds that mean decent winnings or moderate ones.
Stages 9 and 10, potentially look fairly straightforward in terms of predictions!
Martin