Following a rest day on Monday the Giro d’Italia Stage 10 returns the riders to the ups and downs with a nasty little mid-mountain stage on Tuesday. Expect the breakaway to go deep into the stage and fireworks amongst the GC riders.
The Route
As the profile for Stage 10 shows the roads go up and down for almost the entire 219kms of the stage. This is a tough course coming after an ITT on Sunday that was made extremely difficult for the late starters by the storms and rainfall.
There will definitely be a break in this stage possibly with 6 or more riders. This is perfect Tim Wellens territory. Further, the break will have a good chance to survive for a long time in the stage as the GC riders will be marking each other.
Towards the end of the stage the category 1 Plan Del Falco climb will be the launching point for attacks by the GC riders. Some riders, including my pick for overall success Ilnur Zakarin dropped time in the ITT (due to two falls) and might use this stage to try to make some of that time back.
From the top of the Plan del Falco there is a sharp fast descent and a summit finish on a category 3 climb in Sestola.
Who will win stage 10?
The GC riders will not be messing around in this stage. The racing will become far more serious in week two and the GC teams will start to take greater control of the race.
Tim Wellens is a rider I expect to try to get into the breakaway on Stage 10. He has already won magnificently in this Giro on a similar type of stage. His team is on fire with 3 stage wins and I can see them trying for their 4th here. He is a decent EW bet choice at 12.0-13.0 but I have a feeling the break won’t make it to the top of the Sestola climb in front.
The favourite for stage 10 is Alejandro Valverde. He has looked strong, attacking the GC riders on stage 8 and putting Maglio Rosa wearer Tom Dumoulin in trouble. He is an explosive rider who will be in with a good chance on the final climb into Sestola.
Of the current top 10 in the GC I don’t think any of the top 4 – Gianluca Brambilla, Bob Jungels, Andrey Amador or Steven Kruijswijk have a proper chance of winning the Giro. The first major contender for overall success is Vincenzo Nibali is 5th place (51 seconds off the lead). He is 8th favourite for stage 10 at odds of between 15.0-23.0. I haven’t seen enough in his climbing this season to back him on this type of stage.
Of the other GC contendors I see Landa, Majka, Zakarin (assuming he isn’t carrying injuries from his ITT crashes), Pozzivivo and Chaves all being in the GC group on the final climb. I don’t think there will be big times gaps between this group of riders and Nibali or Valverde.
Diego Ulissi is the sort of rider who could win Stage 10. He excels in these stages and is far enough off the lead (2:54 but 2 minutes behind Nibali) to be allowed a little freedom to attack and not be chased on the final two climbs. He has good value at 13.0-19.0 as an EW bet.
Esteban Chaves is very similar to Ulissi – he is light, explosive in an uphill sprint and has just enough of a time deficit to be given some leeway on this stage. Chaves is another I will tip EW.
Were Brambilla in the top 10 but not in the pink jersey he would also be a gret EW choice on Stage 10. As it is he and his Etixx team will have to mark every attempted break by a rider currently in the top 15 or so places. I feel he could well lose the lead tomorrow.
Bets
Back Diego Ulissi to win Stage 10 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 19.0 with Coral.
Bet here:
Back Esteban Chaves to win Stage 10 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.0 with Betfred.
Bet here:
