WOW! Stage 16 of this years Gido d’Italia was insane watching. Full on, flat out and attack after attack. Talk about spectacular racing! For once I’m not too upset that my tips missed a payout (Ulissi finished 4th). Just spectacular viewing. I suspect Giro d’Italia Stage 17 will be nothing like the excitement witnessed in stage 16.
The Route
The profile for stage 17 shows a downhill route from Molveno to Cassano d’Adda. The first 100kms of the 196km stage are lumpy, but nothing like the terrain of the previous 4 stages. From the 100km point the stage flattens all the way to the finish line.
Expect a fast first hour or so in stage 17. Teams that have yet to win a stage and the breakaway specialists will be trying to get into a front group.
The sprinters that remain in the race will want their teams to keep the break under control so they can contest a bunch sprint. How many sprinters are left? The biggest names have gone home or been eliminated by missing cut-off times. We might see a first time Giro stage winner from the next echelon of sprinters in Cassano d’Adda. This might be tough to predict.
The sprinters that remain in the race
There really only remain two top level sprinters in the race – Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Moddolo. They are both priced in the 2.5-4.0 range with the next best priced rider available for 13.0.
Nizzolo has finished in 2nd place in Giro stages on far too many occasions. Stage 17 is the perfect day for him to break through as a winner. He currently leads the Red Jersey classification by 8 points (138 to 130) from Diego Ulissi. Nizzolo would love to win stage 17 and challenge again in stage 18 on Thursday to try to build a big lead over Ulissi. The race returns to the mountains for stages 19 & 20 which favours Ulissi in the Red Jersey fight. Nizzolo’s team has disappointed in this years race – no stage wins so far and they will be looking to rectify this in Cassano d’Adda.
Moddolo has not really challenged for stage honours in this Giro. I understand why he is 2nd favourite but he doesn’t seem to have the speed that Nizzolo does in this race. He is hard to back at 4.0.
Matteo Trentin is a decent price at 15.0-21.0 as an EW bet. He too is in the thick of the fight for the Red Jersey. On a sprint stage without Kittel, Griepel and a handful of others he could surprise. His Etixx team have been super in this race and he will get a strong leadout from the likes of Bob Jungels.
Of the rest Porzev, Mezgec and Sbaragli will likely be in the hunt but I’m not sure they can beat Nizzolo.
Giro d’Italia Stage 17 Tips
Back Giacomo Nizzolo to win stage 17 with a 2.5/10 stake at 4.0 with Paddy Power.
Back him here:
Back Matteo Trentin to win stage 17 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 21.0 with Ladbrokes.
Back him here:
