Paris-Nice 2017 continues on Friday with the first of the mountain stages in the race. The focus in the peloton will shift towards the riders in the GC fight. Quick-Step Floors will have to mark a number of riders to try to protect the race leader – Julian Alaphilippe.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 6 – The Profile
Stage 6 is a bit of a brute as the profile shows. The stage is fairly long at 193.5kms in length taking the riders from Aubange to Fayence. The real difficulty is the number of climbs.
From the start in Aubange the road rises into a category 2 climb – Col de l’Espigoulier (8.9kms at 5.5%). The days break will be established here – probably after multiple attempts to form.
The next 100kms feature an undulating course before the remaining 5 categorised climbs come pretty much back-to back. They are:
- Cote des Tuilieres at 116kms – category 2 – 2.2km at 7.8%;
- Cote du Mont Meaulx at 131.5kms – category 3 – 1.5kms at 4.2%;
- Col de Bourigaille at 146kms – category 1 – 5.5kms at 6.1%;
- Col de Bourigaille at 174.5kms – category 1 – 5.5kms at 6.1% (climbed for the second time);
- Fayence at 193.5kms – category 2 – 1.3kms at 9.8%.
The keys to the stage will be the second ascent of the Col de Bourigaille at 174.5kms. There are a number of riders within 90 seconds of the race lead. They will look to try to close some of that time on stage 6 with the knowledge that they can probably gain more on Saturday’s tougher stage. If they can reduce the size of the front group here then the fast descent into Fayence means they can probably stay away. The brutally steep final climb in Fayence actually suits the race leader – Alaphilippe. He could use his puncheur skills to try to increase his race lead – something he might need for Stage 7.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 6 – Favoured Riders
Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) is favoured to win stage 6 at odds of 4.0-4.5. I think a good case can be made for him winning in Fayence. The final climb is a longer version of the climb he broke away from the front group on in stage 1. Alapahilippe rides well in the mid-April classics that have final climbs just like that in Fayence. I would say back him with some confidence.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) is next in the betting market. His race has been poor so far due to missing the peloton splits on the flat stages. Porte will be looking for redemption of sort with stage wins. I prefer him for Saturday’s stage in the high mountains.
Alberto Contador (Trek Segafredo) cannot really afford to lose any more time to Alaphilippe if he hopes to win Paris-Nice. He is 91 seconds down already and needs to stick with or even attack Alaphilippe before the final climb on Friday. Contador is likely to gain time on Saturday but overtaking Alaphilippe will be tougher if that time gap increases today. You can back Contador at 19.0-21.0. Not for me.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 6 – Long-shots
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) is still in the GC battle for the race win and is third favourite at 9.0-10.0. I’ve never really seen Henao as a winner of this type of race. To me he should be a climbing domestique in Grand Tour races. He just doesn’t have the explosion to win on the final climb if a group arrives together.
Dan Martin (Quick-Step Floors) certainly does have the puncheur power to excel on the Fayence climb and has odds of 17.0-19.0. I have two concerns. One, Alaphilippe is in a great position now to win the race overall. Martin may now be a helper and that may curtail his chances of going for a stage win. Two – he hasn’t yet looked ike he has top form and he would need that to win today.
Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal) is another rider who goes well on stages like today’s. He has been decent here – albeit losing time as expected in the TT. I’m a little surprised his odds are as big as 41.0-51.0. This could be worth an EW bet.
Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) has favourable odds for stage 6 at 23.0. His TT was fairly decent and he has the looks of a hilly classics/GT rider based on his performances so far in his career. He can climb and he likes to attack. The odds have EW value too!
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) agonisingly came 4th for me on stage 5 at odds of 19.0. He could very well be in the mix again on Friday. I don’t think he can beat Alaphilippe for pure speed on the Fayence climb but a podium place is a possibility. Odds of 41.0 are very tempting.
Two of the other GC contenders Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) and Jon Izaguirre (Bahrain-Merida) will try to minimise their losses today and go for broke tomorrow. Neither have the explosiveness in their legs to challenge on the Fayence climb.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 6 – Tips
Back Julian Alaphilippe to win stage 6 with a 2.5/10 stake at 4.50 with Paddy Power.
WON – Bet on Simon Yates to win stage 6 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
Bet on Michael Matthews to win stage 6 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 41.0 with Bet365.
Back him here:
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