The 105th one day classic between Paris-Roubaix or ‘The Hell of the North’ takes place on Sunday 9th April, 2016. This is the second ‘Monument’ in 8 days – hot on the heels of an incredible Tour of Flanders.
Philippe Gilbert was sensational last Sunday at the Tour of Flanders – making it two Sunday’s in a row of tipping winners for me. Now I try for the hat-trick!
Paris-Roubaix 2017 – The Profile
Paris-Roubaix starts in Paris and essentially heads 257.5kms north to its finish on the old velodrome in Roubaix.
The course is incredibly tough – with a staggering 29 sections of cobbles and dirt roads. These encompass 52kms of the course and similar to the Tour of Flanders cause many crashes creating high drama throughout the race.
Some of the cobbled sections have become iconic due to the way previous races have been won and lost on them. The 2.4km Trouée d’Arenberg (Trench of Arenberg) is a key point in the race. It is the 18th cobbled section of the day and it is here that top contenders in the past have broken away and raced ahead to victory.
Given the way Gent-Wevelgem and Tour of Flanders were raced I expect another early attack by at least one of the race favourites on Sunday. This could come from the Arenberg onwards as in last years race. Quick-Step led a break in the 2016 race that distanced race favourites Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellera. They were forced to chase the rest of the race and were never able to re-establish contact with the front group. Eventually, the pace of the chase led to Cancellera crashing ending any chances of his and Sagan’s in the race.
Paris-Roubaix 2017 – Recent History
The most recent winners of Paris-Roubaix were:
- 2011 – Johan Vansummeren (BEL) – Garmin-Cervelo
- 2012 – Tom Boonen (BEL) – Omega Phrama-Quick Step
- 2013 – Fabian Cancellera (SUI) – RadioShack Leopard
- 2014 – Niki Terpstra (NED) – Omega Phrama-Quick Step
- 2015 – John Degenkolb (GER) – Giant Alpecin
- 2016 – Mat Hayman (AUS) – Orica-Scott
Paris-Roubaix 2017 – The Favourites
Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe) must be kicking himself after Tour of Flanders. He looked so powerful up the Oude Kwaremont dropping everyone bar Naesen and GVA before he crashed. I really think that without the crash the group would have caught Gilbert. Sagan rode the Scheldeprijs on Wednesday but played the team role there. Last year he was dropped early in Paris-Roubaix. He won’t make that mistake here in 2017. Sagan is favourite at around 4.0-4.5. This is still win only territory though.
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) has been the rider with the best results in the Classics this season. He was runner-up last weekend at Flanders and a little surprisingly is third favourite here at odds as high as 11.0. This seems a little ludicrous to me. He has shown that he can beat Sagan in a sprint although I think he would lose to Degenkolb or Kristoff. His plan will be to get into a small group at the front and win the sprint. I have to back him at these odds.
Philippe Gilbert (Quick Step Floors) the impressive winner of the Tour of Flanders last Sunday is not riding here. This means the team focus probably shifts to Tom Boonen and Niki Terpstra. This is Boonen’s final Paris-Roubaix. He has 4 wins already in his amazing career and a 5th would be the perfect retirement gift. Boonen has played a team role in most of the classic’s so far but the team, sans Gilbert and Fernando Gaviria is definitely built around him here. I’m still not 100% convinced he can win this race though. Odds of 6.0 seem a little on the low side.
I prefer Terpstra here from the Quick-Step Floors team. Terpstra was 3rd at Tour of Flanders following on from a 4th at Gent-Wevelgem. He was also impressive in E3 and has super odds as high as 17.0. This has super EW value!
Oliver Naesen (AG2R La Mondiale) – I include Naesen here because he was 3rd in E3 Prije Vlaanderen and looked like finishing 4th at worst last Sunday at Tour of Flanders before being taken out in the Sagan crash. Naesen was the only rider able to follow Sagan on the second ascent of the Oude Kwaremont last Sunday (GVA later joined the duo). I think that he has to be amongst the favourites here – providing there is no fallout from the crash.
Two big men that sprint will be hoping for a big result here – John Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) and Alexander Kristoff (Katusha). Degenkolb is close to a big win. He has been 5th and 7th on the last two Sunday’s showing his legs are good. Odds of 7.0 do have some EW potential. The danger with backing Degenkolb or Kristoff is that each have featured in the classic’s so far but fallen away from the front in the final stages. Kristoff finished 5th last Sunday at Tour of Flanders and looks a better bet with odds in the 17.0-19.0 range.
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Paris-Roubaix 2017 – The Rest
I wanted to back Fernando Gaviria (Quick Step Floors) as one of my outsiders but he isn’t racing. This leaves you with a few choices.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) has gone off the boil in the last two weeks. He had a super Paris-Nice and looked to be a threat in the classics but he has failed to produce a big result. I do like Demare but feel things would need to be have a little luck to win on Sunday. Odds as high as 41.0 do tempt me a little. If he can get in the front group he can definitely win a sprint.
Ian Stannard leads the Team Sky riders in the betting markets at 19.0. I was expecting odds in the 34.0-41.0 range based on results so far in 2017. Not for me.
Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data) is another that looks too short to me at 19.0-23.0. He was 5th in Paris-Roubaix in 2016 but has yet to register a top 10 in 2017. EBH is a talented rider (as are all the riders) but I cannot back him based on recent results.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) can be backed between 34.0-51.0. Greipel looked good at long odds for long stretches of Tour of Flanders but dropped back on the final two climbs. The terrain is similar in Paris-Roubaix and a repeat performance wouldn’t be a shock.
Tony Martin (Katusha) is available at 17.0-26.0 but again looks too short. Martin has crashed a couple of times in 2017 already and this race is the ‘king’ for crashes with the abundance of cobbled sections. A dearth of results in classics races for Martin also points to avoid.
Mat Hayman (Orica-Scott) won Paris-Roubaix race last year beating Tom Boonen, Ian Stannard, Sep Vanmarcke and Edvald Boasson Hagen in a sprint finish. This was a huge shock to as Boonean and EBH are seen to be better sprinters than Hayman. Hayman also has an 8th and 10th place finish in this race and odds as high as 67.0 have significant EW value. He could well be a ‘horse for a course’.
A number of other riders could be considered. I won’t go into huge detail here apart from saying they are strong men who have the potential to feature – especially if crashes have an impact on the favourites group. They include:
- Luke Rowe (Team Sky) – odds 51.0;
- Luke Durbridge (Orica-Scott) – odds 34.0;
- Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo) – odds 67.0;
- Yves Lampaert and Matteo Trentin (Quick-Step Floors) – both in the 51.0-67.0 range;
- Jens Debuscherre (Lotto-Soudal) – odds of 81.0.
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Paris-Roubaix 2017 – Tips
Only two bookmakers have EW odds for the top 4 places including the one I have chosen below.
WON – Bet on Greg Van Avermaet to win Paris-Roubaix for a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 11.0 with Boylesports.
Back Niki Terpstra to win Paris-Roubaix for a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 17.0 with Boylesports.
Bet on Alexander Kristoff to win Paris-Roubaix for a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 17.0 with Boylesports.
Back Mat Hayman to win Paris-Roubaix for a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 67.0 with Boylesports.
Bet here:
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