The 104th one day classic between Paris-Roubaix or ‘The Hell of the North’ takes place on Sunday 10th April, 2016. This is the second ‘Monument’ in 8 days.
The Course
Paris-Roubaix follows hot on the heels of the Tour of Flanders. The ace starts in Paris heading 257.5kms north to its finish on the old velodrome in Roubaix.
The course is incredibly tough – with a staggering 27 sections of cobbles and dirt roads. These encompass 52kms of the course and similar to the Tour of Flanders cause many crashes creating high drama throughout the race.
Some of the cobbled sections have become iconic due to the way previous races have been won and lost on them. The 2.4km Trouée d’Arenberg (Trench of Arenberg) is a key point in the race. It is the 18th cobbled section of the day and it is here that top contenders in the past have broken away and raced ahead to victory.
Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of Paris-Roubaix were:
- 2011 – Johan Vansummeren (BEL) – Garmin-Cervelo
- 2012 – Tom Boonen (BEL) – Omega Phrama-Quick Step
- 2013 – Fabian Cancellera (SUI) – RadioShack Leopard
- 2014 – Niki Terpstra (NED) – Omega Phrama-Quick Step
- 2015 – John Degenkolb (GER) – Giant Alpecin
Type of Riders suited to this race
There is no doubt this is a tough mans race. The cobbles and the mud when it rains make this race one of attrition like the Tour of Flanders. The powerful riders feature and history shows that riders who win once often go on to win this race multiple times. Boonen has 4 wins and Cancellera has three victories.
Riders who will feature
The clear favourites
As in the Tour of Flanders this comes down to two men – Fabian Cancellera (Trek Segafredo) and Peter Sagan (Tinkoff).
As I predicted last week Sagan looked to be the best rider in the peloton heading into the Tour of Flanders. He won, in a style reminiscent of earlier wins by Boonen and Cancellera, by breaking away from the field and powering to victory. It is very tough to bet against him here and he is rightly favourite.
Cancellera favourite last week finished second. He missed the key break by Sagan, Michal Kwiatkowki (who faded badly) and Sepp Vanarcke and was forced to play catch-up. He did manage to close on Sagan with about 15kms to go but didn’t have the power of old to close the 20 second lead Sagan held.
He is going to try to match Boonen and Roger de Vlaeminck with his 4th victory in what may very well be his final season. Cancellera is the real danger to Sagan. I don’t think he has quite enough to win however.
The Other contendors
Tom Boonen (Etixx Quickstep) would love to win for a 5th time but his time as a classics winner seems to have passed. As per last week I think Niki Terpstra, the 2014 winner, is more likely to challenge for the podium.
Team Sky will send a strong team to the event. The course is perfectly suited to Luke Rowe and Geraint Thomas. Thomas did a great supporting role for Michal Kwiatkowski last week, finishing along with Luke Rowe in the third group on the road. Rowe and Thomas will be in contention again this Sunday.
Greg van Avermaet (BMC Racing) crashed badly in the Tour of Flanders taking out 4 team-mates in the spill. He is out of Paris-Roubaix and this removes a dangerous threat to Sagan.
Alexander Kristoff (Team Katusha) will go better here as there are fewer hills than last week. He is dangerous, especially if he can get into a smaller front group and he can easily win a sprint in that type of situation.
Sep Vanmarcke (Lotto-Jumbo) has become the nearly man with top 3 finishes the last two weeks. I think a top 5 is a strong possibility here but his lack of sprinting prowess will prevent him reaching the podium.
Things to Know
This race is wildly unpredictable. If it rains and there is wind – anything can and will happen. The current forecast is quite decent, with a low chance of rainfall. BUT there is rain forecast every day until then. This might impact the course.
The cobbled sections and the mad dash by the peloton to reach them first mean there will be lots of crashes in the peloton.
Tips
The best rider won last week and I think he completes the double. Peter Sagan will win his second Monument in 8 days. Back him for a 3.0/10 stake at 4.00 with Paddypower.
Place your bet here:
Back Alexander Kristoff with a 1.0/10 stake at 13.0 E/W with Skybet (1/4 odds for top 4).
Place your bet here:
