The Paris-Nice multi-stage road race has been running since 1933 (there were no races in the war years 1939-1945). The 75th race starts this Sunday (5th March, 2016) and runs for 8 days finishing in Nice the following Sunday (12th March, 2016).
Paris-Nice has a nickname ‘The Race to the Sun’, as the race runs from central France to the Mediterranean coast and the ‘sunshine’ in Nice.
NOTE – I will not be previewing each stage of this race.
Recent History
Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico (which I will also preview) are regarded as the first of the real tests of the UCI Cycling calendar for riders who are seeking success in the seasons Grand Tours.
The winners of the last five editions of Paris-Nice were:
- 2011 – Tony Martin (GER) – HTC-Highroad
- 2012 – Bradley Wiggins (GBR) – Team Sky
- 2013 – Richie Porte (AUS) – Team Sky
- 2014 – Carlos Betancur (COL) – Ag2r-La Mondial
- 2015 – Richie Porte (AUS) – Team Sky
- 2016 – Gerraint Thomas (GBR) – Team Sky
As we can see this is a race Team Sky have dominated. Paris-Nice plays a key part in the team’s plans for the season, particularly for the Tour de France.
The Route & Stages
The 2017 race follows a familiar format. There are a number of stages for the sprinters to contest, a time trial and some stages for the climbers. This is why it is perfect as an early season test for the Grand Tour riders. The race offers a little bit of everything we will see in the 3 week races. Paris-Nice is in effect a mini-Tour de France that covers more than 1,100kms.
Stages 1, 2, 3 and 5 all have profiles that look etched in stone to be sprint finishes. Weather could be the only factor preventing four sprint royales. This explains why there is a strong field of sprinters in the 2017 race.
Stage 4 is a short 14.5km Time Trial into Mont Brouilly. The final 3kms are all climbing at an average gradient of 7.7%. Expect the riders contending for the overall win to feature here and create some time gaps on thier rivals.
Stages 6 & 7 are the key mountain stages of the 2017 race. Stage 6 has 6 major climbs – 1 category 3, 2 category 2’s including the finale into Fayence and 3 category 1’s. There will be a shake-up in the race on stage 6 leaving only a few riders in contention for the overall race win. The following stage is shorter and has only 4 climbs but it will be the decisive stage in the race. Three of the four climbs are category 1’s. with two of them coming back-to-back into the finish in Col de la Couillole. The final climb is 15.7kms at 7.1% = a brute.
The finale into Nice is also classed as a mountain stage with 5 categorised climbs including 2 category 1’s. The difference in this stage is that the climbs are much shorter – between 5-7kms and at lesser gradients than stages 6 & 7. Last years finale was exciting as the virtual race lead changed hands constantly in the last 25kms. With the strength of field in this years race we could see a repeat!
Main Contenders
There are a small group of big name contenders for overall success if the field. These riders dominate the bookies markets.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) was 3rd in 2016 and has looked imperious thus far in 2017. Porte won the Tour Down Under with ease, winning both mountain stages. He can time trial, especially on the shorter routes like stage 4 in this years race. He just looks incredibly explosive. I think he is the rider to beat and the bookmakers agree making him favourite at 2.37-2.50.
Alberto Contador (Trek Segafredo) has 7 Grand Tour wins and won this race in 2007 and 2010. In 2016 he was runner-up to Gerraint Thomas by a mere 4 seconds. At times on the final stage he was virtual leader only for Thomas to rejoin the lead group in the final km of the final stage. Contador obviously has the pedigree to win this race again. He has looked fairly good so far in 2017 and was runner-up in the Vuelta de Andalucia. To me he has lost that unique ability he had on climbs to attack and continue that attack. Now riders can ride back to him after his initial burst. I don’t think he can beat Porte this year. He is the only rider close to Porte in the betting market at 3.25-3.75.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) has experience a wonderful career. He has a Grand Tour win (Vuelta Espana in 2009), multiple Grand Tour stage wins and podiums, a number of Monument and One Day Classic Wins and a handful of stage race wins. He has never won Paris-Nice however and is on the downside of his career. For me his and the strength the competition here means I cannot back him. Wait until the Monuments in late April to back him. NOTE – Valverde pulled out of the race due to injury and will not start.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) was 4th here in 2016 and was a serious contendor in the Giro d’Italia until a wretched time trial – mired by multiple crashes in the rain and then a massive crash on a mountain descent took him out of the race. He just finished 2nd in the Abu Dhabi Tour – finishing ahead of Contador and many of the riders here. He too looks like a decent EW shout. Zakarin is being priced at 7.0 for the overall win. I’m tempted!
Outsiders
The outsiders group is actually an amazingly strong set of riders. In the main they are t future of the sport. They are young, talented and hungry to get to the top tier. I actually like the chances of two or three of this group and think they will be serious challengers for the podium places.
Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) is the next great hope of French cycling. He had a strong season in 2016, particularly in the early part of the year. At times he looked like a young Alejandro Valverde with his ability to be a puncheur. Alaphilippe looks like he will be a contender in some of the Monuments like Fleche-Wallonie for years to come. He can climb and I feel he will be a top 6 finisher here. To me he needs a little more seasoning before we can judge if he is a Grand Tour winning type of rider. You could take a punt on him EW at 17.0-22.0, His team have been on fire early in the 2017 season.
Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale) had a magnificent 2016 with a runner-up place in the Tour de France. He is an excellent climber so the latter part of Paris-Nice will suit him. He could be the second best climber in the field behind Porte and is a definite threat for the win. Odds of 21.0-26.0 look like super value.
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) leads the Sky team in the absence of Wout Poels – a late withdraw from the lineup. Henao to me is better as a support rider than as a team leader. He is talented and has oddles of ability in the mountains. He is weak however in time trials and can be caught out on the tougher flat stages where there is cross-wind and spilts in the peloton. I think Sky may do better in the sprints in this race with Danny Van Poppel and I dislike odds of 16-19.0 on Henao for the win.
Steven Kruijswijk (Lotto NL-Jumbo) seems to love the early season. That is when his best results usually come and he loves the Giro d’Italia. He is a decent climber but not in the league of Porte, Contador or Bardet. For that reason I cannot back him here even though 67.0 looks like it has some EW potential
Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) – his 2016 season was cut short by injury and a suspension over his team failing to get his asthma medication documentation in order. I think Simon has a break through season in 2017 – similar to his brother Adam’s rise in 2016. The bookies have Yates at 67.0-81.0 and I think that is a fair reflection of his chances.
Jon Izaguirre (Bahrain Merida) moved from Movistar to get the opportunity to challenge for race wins. He leads his new team here for the first time. I think he is a fine stage racer, one capable of winning on the toughest terrain but I’ve not seen him be able to do this on consecutive days in the mountains. Not for me and I’m surprised he is joint 3rd favourite at 7.0.
Warren Barguil (Sunweb) – was the next great French hope before Alaphilippe. He too is a capable climber one that will get stage wins in the Grand Tours in his career. Here, against this field I think a top 10 is a solid result.
Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates) is an explosive climber who has had his best results in one day races or individual stages on Grand Tours (6 Giro stage wins). He looks like he has potential in longer races but has yet to produce a really solid result in an overall standings in this type of race. I will like him better in the Giro as a stage winner. The odds actually have surprised me for Ulissi – you can back him at 201.00. I figured he would be in the 50-67.0 range so am tempted for a really small EW bet.
Paris-Nice 2017 – Tips
A number of bookmakers odds are in for Paris-Nice and as it stands one is offering the best prices on the four riders I intend to tip.
Bet on Richie Porte to win Paris-Nice with a 3.0/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power.
Back Ilnur Zakarin to win Paris-Nice with a 1.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 7.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Romain Bardet to win Paris-Nice with a 1.0/10 stake EW at 26.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
Back Diego Ulissi to win Paris-Nice with a 0.25/10 stake EW at 201.00 (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
Bet on all four here:
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