The second major stage race of the European section of the 2017 UCI calendar starts on Wednesday. The 2017 Tirreno-Adriatico is the 52nd running of this great event. It comprises 7 stages raced between 8th-14th March that includes some stunning Italian countryside.
There will only be an overall race preview from me for Tirreno-Adriatico. I have time commitments issues with covering Paris-Nice this week and then next week the Cheltenham Festival.
Tirreno-Adriatico 2017 – The Route
The race starts in Lido Di Camaoire and sees the race take a southern route to its finish in San Benedetto Del Tronto. The 7 stages offer s variety of challenges for the riders.
Stage 1 is a Team Time Trial of 22.7kms. It will be important in the GC fight that the main contenders do not lose times here.
Stage 2 is the longest of the race at 228kms from Camiore to Pomarance. The second half of the stage features 3 categorised climbs. Again, another stage for the GC riders to not lose time.
The third stage takes the riders from Monterotondo Marittimo to Montalto Di Castro. This is shorter at 204.5kms but does once more feature climbs – albeit in the first half of the stage. There will be a sprint of sorts at the end – likely from a diminished peloton.
Stage 4 is likely the key stage in the GC battle. The stage ends on the frightening Terminillo climb – 16kms at 7.3% with some sections at 12%. Race favourite Nairo Quintana won here in 2015.
The 5th stage is likely to be tricky as it is most like a Classics race. It starts in Rieti and ends 209kms later in Fermo. This will suit the GC riders that have a lot of classics experience and could be tricky for Quintana in particular.
Stage 6 looks like it has the makings of a proper bunch sprint in Civitanova Marche. I don’t see the GC riders having too many problems on this stage.
The final stage is an Individual Time Trial in San Benedetto Del Tronto. As it is only 10kms long there shouldn’t be too much change in the GC battle.
Tirreno-Adriatico 2017 – The Massive Favourite
This is Nairo Quintana’s (Movistar) race to lose. He was brilliant in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana winning with real style. That race has very similar terrain to that he will ride in Tirreno-Adriatico. On the flipside Quintana was stymied by Alberto Contador in the recent Tour Abu-Dhabi. I would make an argument that the latter race almost didn’t matter too much for Quintana in terms of season targets. This race does matter. A number of the riders he will race here will be his main rivals in the upcoming Giro d’Italia. He will want to win and win by a margin here for psychological reasons.
Movistar have their ‘A’ team in support of Quintana. They will help him achieve a strong result in the TTT on stage 1 and then protect him on the tricky stage 5. I think he easily wins stage 4 up to Terminillo. Barring accidents or crazy weather – see Paris-Nice, Quintana will win here and the odds are reasonable at 3.25.
Tirreno-Adriatico 2017 – The Challengers
This includes a group of about 10 riders.
Fabio Aru (Astana) has decent early season form compared to previous seasons. He has a third place finish at the Tour of Oman ands an 8th in the Abu Dhabi Tour. Aru is targeting the Giro d’Italia so will be looking for a strong performance here. He can be shaky in Time Trials so the fact there are two in the seven stages here is a concern. Odds of 34.0 are about right.
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain Merida) was winner here in 2012 and 2013. He finished 6th in 2016 and likes this race. This too is a stepping stone for Nibali for the Grand Tours. Form so far in 2017 has been tepid with only an 8th place in a race in Latin America. The Bahrain Merida team looks good for the TTT and Nibali can/will attack from anywhere. I just cannot see him matching Quintana on stage 4 but a podium is possible. Odds of 11.0 appeal as an EW bet.
Team Sky have an incredible team with 3 riders Michael Landa, Diego Rosa and Gerraint Thomas that feature in the upper echelons of the betting market. Landa has the team leader role and will be Plan A or Plan 1A for the Giro d’Italia. His best work last year, his first for the team came as a support rider. He was signed by Sky to be a GC contender in Grand Tours. This is an important race for him. New off-season signing Diego Rosa and Gerraint Thomas (long-time team number 2 in the TDF) both look as capable as Landa of being Plan A at the Giro too. Simply put Landa needs a top 3 here. In the early going in 2017 Rosa has looked the sharper (5th in Vuelta a Andalucia).
On a side note Michal Kwiatkowski could be a serious threat for the win on stage 5. I prefer Rosa EW at 51.0 than Landa (34.0), Thomas (13.0) and Kwiatkowski (34.0).
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) has a good year and backs it up with a bad one where he looks like he doesn’t know how to ride a bike. He is talented, he can time-trial (as can his team), he can climb and he will like Nibali attack from anywhere. The thing is he cannot climb like Quintana and is mistake prone. I’m shocked he is second favourite at 5.0.
Adam Yates (Orica-Scott) was a brilliant 4th in the 2016 TDF. He comes here as team leader and should be in the top 5 or 6. His best result in 2017 is a win at the GP Industria & Artigianato di Larciano. This is a significant step up in class from that race but Yates is definitely an emerging rider. This will be a good test for him and Orica-Scott. He has odds of 15.0 so the EW is in play but I will reserve betting on him until the late-Belgian Monuments.
Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) could be a surprise candidate for the podium places. We know he will do well in stages 1 and 7 with his time-trial prowess. Dumoulin should also be a big threat on stage 5 – he had a decent result in Strade-Bianche last weekend which is similar to stage 5’s course. The danger is how much time will he lose on the Terminillo climb on stage 4? He has odds of 7.0 and I feel that is a little too short.
Rui Costa (UAE Team Emirates) has been a star so far in 2017. He won the Abu Dhabi Tour beating most of his rivals in this race in the process. Costa was also 2nd in the Tour of Oman and 5th in Vuelta a San Juan (with a stage win). Costa is a very good climber and one day type of racer. I cannot see him beating Quintana for the win. However, Costa looks like being the best of the big price outsiders for the podium and 81.0 is very generous given his results in 2017.
Tirreno-Adriatico 2017 – Tips
WON – Back Nairo Quintana to win Tirreno-Adriatico with a 3.0/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Diego Rosa to win Tirreno-Adriatico with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Rui Costa to win Tirreno-Adriatico with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Vincenzo Nibali to win Tirreno-Adriatico with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 11.0 with Paddy Power.
Back all four here:
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