Tour de France 2017 – Sprint Classification
This has been the domain of one rider for the last 5 years – Peter Sagan. Sagan has 5 straight wins in this classification and few would bet against him to match Erik Zabel’s record of 6 in this years race. Of course there are a number of riders who will challenge Sagan – were he to crash then this would be a wide open battle.
Riders gain points in two ways. The biggest number of points are awarded at the finish line – these are weighted based on the type of stage with more on offer for sprint stages. Each stage has Intermediate Sprints – this includes those in the hills and mountains. The aim is to give all riders a chance to shine even on terrain that doesn’t suit them!
As in the Young Riders classification I will add some information about the race route. This will help me explain who Sagan’s closest rivals will be.
Tour de France 2017 – The Route
The 2017 race covers 3,540kms over the traditional 21 stages. Of these there are:
- an unsually high number of sprinters stages (9);
- hilly stages (5);
- mountain stages (5) but only 3 mountain top finishes and the one of those is on a category 2 climb;
- ITT – individual time trials (2) but only covering a total of 38kms.
In effect this jersey will be won on the 9 sprinters and 5 hilly stages. These 14 stages encompass 2/3rd of the 2017 route.
Tour de France 2017 – Sprint Classification – The Clear Favourite
Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) is probably unique on the UCI tour in that he can win (and has won) all types of stages – sprint, ITT, hilly and mountain. He has won the Green Jersey 5 years in a row and you would have to be daft to bet against him making it 6. Sagan will probably be looking for 3-4 stage wins in this years race – a couple on the flat and a couple of the hilly stages too. It is the hilly stages where Sagan usually moves away from his rivals by gaining lots of points. Traditionally this jersey has been won by the pure sprinters – they are riders who struggle when the terrain has an upwards slope. They fail to pick up any points on these stages and effectively lose any chance of challenging Sagan. The fact Sagan is arguably even more of a stage win threat on the hilly days (like some of the early season classics) means this is a no brainer even at 1.67. BACK HIM!
Tour de France 2017 – Sprint Classification – The Closest Challengers
Marcel Kittel (Quick Step-Floors) – is second favourite as high as 4.0. I actually think Kittel will win the most stages in this years race. To me he is the fastest sprinter in the TDF and I could see him win 4 of the flat sprinter stages. However, Kittel is probably the worst climber amongst the sprinters so not really a threat to Sagan.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) is way overpriced to me in this market at 13.0 and a definite EW opportunity. Demare has yet to win a Grand Tour stage – this is the only negative I see. What Demare does is finish consistently well. He won the Green Jersey in the recent Dauphine and won stage 2. I don’t think he will win a sprint stage but he will rack up the top 5’s and gain decent points. His 2017 results include a number of top 10 finishes in the early season classics. The terrain there is similar to the 5 hilly stages in this TDF. This is where he will gain on the likes of Kittel and challenge Sagan.
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Tour de France 2017 – Sprint Classification – The Rest
This is a really big group but many have question marks. I will deal with the pure sprinters first.
Pure Sprinters
Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal) has won a stage (22 in total) at every Grand Tour he has started since the 2008 Giro. The make-up of the 2017 race means he has 9 chances to maintain his impressive run. Greipel is a bit better on hills than Kittel but he is nowhere near the ability of Sagan or Demare. Odds of 16.0 do not tempt me.
Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) – his season hasn’t really started. Early on his form was lacking and then Cavendish was diagnosed with Glandular Fever (this may explain his lack of sprint speed). Cavendish trails only Eddy Merckx in TDF stage wins with an incredible 30! With 9 more sprint stages in 2017 he will be looking to improve on his total. As we have yet to see the ‘real’ Cav this year I cannot back him in stages let alone an overall classification. Odds of 17.0 are too short and reek a little of British bias. NOTE – if Cav has recovered from the illness he may challenge Kittel for most stage wins. He cannot climb at all.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) has some wins in 2017 but none at elite level. He was hoping to challenge for some of the Belgian classics but never really showed the legs to win. To date he has two Grand Tour stage wins both at the 2014 TDF. I have a hard time seeing him finish in the top 5 of this classification – odds of 34.0 look short to me.
Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) is Mr Moody on the UCI Tour. He blows hot or really cold and lately it has been much more of the latter. Bouhanni has yet to be confirmed as riding. I suspect he will start as his team have so few other hopes for success in the race. His odds range from 23-34.0 for the Green Jersey – he won’t win this in a million years.
Bryan Coquard (Direct Energie) is still seeking his first win at elite world level. In recent races Coquard has been hampered by poor positioning in the finals kms of stages – sometimes his fault and sometimes his teams. He is not quick enough to win stages on the flat and is another who cannot climb.
John Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) looks more like a pure classics rider than a Grand Tour rider since his massive training crash a couple of years ago. This is reflected in his odds as high as 81.0. A stage win would be a super result.
Sprinters with some Climbing Ability
Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto NL_Jumbo) has 5 wins in 2017 but none at the top level. He doesn’t have the speed to win the flat stages but could be a threat in the 5 hilly days racing. Alas, these 5 stages will not give him enough points to be anywhere near the top guys in this classification. Odds of 13.0 are way too short.
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) is more of a threat as a stage winner on the 5 hilly days than he is to win an overall classification. Matthews can be devastatingly quick from a reduced bunch on lumpy days. He lacks the speed to accumulate enough points of the 9 flat stages to seriously challenge Sagan. Avoid at 21.0.
Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) is another who has some EW value. Colbrelli has shown improved sprinting prowess in 2017 – winning a sprint at Paris-Nice. He also won Brabanste-Pijl and grabbed a number of top 10s in the Classics races. This bodes well for the TDF. He can be a little like Demare – competitive in the sprints and then gaining on the pure sprinters on the 5 hilly stages. Odds around 51.0 have EW value.
Fabio Felline (Trek-Segafredo) will probably have more points than team-mate Degenkolb come Paris. Felline doesn’t really have the results that his early season form showed. He was competitive in a number of classics races but missed the vital split on a number of occasions. His odds at 301.0 suggest complete no-hoper but I think he is better than that. I am tempted with a teeny tiny bet. Felline has the chance for a top 25 overall placing and that will mean he will gain points even on the tougher climbing days.
Tour de France 2017 – Sprint Classification – Tips
I don’t usually back this many riders for a Jersey competition but I think 3 of the 4 are over-priced and will do better than expected.
Back Peter Sagan to win the Sprint Classification with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.67 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Arnaud Demare to win the Sprint Classification with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Sonny Colbrelli to win the Sprint Classification with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Fabio Felline to win the Sprint Classification with a 0.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 301.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
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