Tour de France 2017 Stage 10 is the first stage after the initial rest day of the current race. The racing returns to the flat-lands once more and this looks like being another sprinters stage.
Stage 9 on Sunday was a bad one for many big name riders. I hope all of the riders that crashed get better quickly and Arnaud Demare recovers from this illness quickly too. I grabbed a place and a head-to-head win so have return son 8 of the 9 stages so far in the 2017 Tour.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 10 – Profile
Stage 10 is one of the shorter flat days at 178kms. The route takes the riders from Perigueux to Bergerac through wine country.
The profile features a number of small bumps but only two proper climbs. These are both category 4 climbs. The first is the Cote de Domme at 100.5kms. The Intermediate Sprint follows some 20kms further into the stage. After another 15kms the riders climb the Cote du Buisson-de-Cadouin. From here, at 138.5kms the rest of the stage is flat. The sprint teams will ratchet up the pace as they deliver their sprinters to the line.
Yes, there will be a break in stage 10 but I give it no more than a 2-3% chance of surviving to Bergerac. After two tough mountain stages the sprinters will want to reclaim the spotlight and go for the win.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 10 – Favourites
Marcel Kittel (Quick Step-Floors) has been the dominant sprinter in the field with 3 wins – including the narrowest win in Tour history on Friday. The run to the line in Bergerac looks like a great opportunity for Kittel to win his 4th stage of the race. The bookmakers heavily favour Kittel too as he is in the 1.50-1.62 range. This is lower than I usually like to bet on.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) missed the time cut on Sunday’s stage after suffering from bouts of sickness in the previous three days. He is the third rival to Kittel to leave the race already following the incident with Peter Sagan and Mark Cavendish earlier in the Tour.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) had his worst sprint on the tour on stage 7 barely making it into the top 10. He sensibly dropped into ‘the grupeto’ early on both stages 8 and 9. This means he should be fresher than the likes of Michael Matthews who was in the break on stage 9. Greipel can be backed at 6.0 and he could pay dividends at these odds.
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) is looking better and better the longer the race goes on. His 3rd place on stage 7 was a surprise because the terrain suited the purer sprinters. My concern is how much energy he used up on stage 9. His aim was to get to the Intermediate Sprint in front of the race and collect the sprinters points. Matthews was succesful but he must surely pay for the effort. His odds for stage 10 are drifting and as high as 17.0. One for the brave I think.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) is managing to get a number of 4th and 5th places in sprints but not cracking the podium spots on a consistent basis. However, he is being consistent and if Matthews struggles this increases his chances of a podium place. Odds at 11.0 are perfect for an EW bet.
Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) is another rider that has gotten close to the podium places in the previous sprints. In this game close isn’t good enough. Like many of the sprinters he dropped into the grupeto early on stage 9. His team really need a stage win at this race. Bouhanni is probably their best chance but I’m struggling to see it occurring. NOt for me at odds of 19.0.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 10 – Outsiders
Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto-NL Jumbo) is not producing the results the bookmakers suggested in this race. I hinted this would be the case. Thus, far he has yet to show an ability to get in the right place in the hectic stage finishes – nor the speed to challenge Kittel. Odd at 17.0 have EW potential but he as yet to deliver so not for me.
Edvald Boasson-Hagen (Dimension Data) was oh so close to his first Tour stage win for a number of years on Friday. Would it have hurt the TDF if they had awarded a dead-heat with Kittel? I would have liked to have seen that outcome. EBH result on stage 7 was a shock. He hasn’t been that competitive in the race so far. EBH might be finding his legs as other riders start to suffer and therefore a small EW bet at 17.0 might be prudent.
John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo) also had his best result in the 2017 race on Friday with a 5th place. This too was a surprise but I feel this may be the upper limit of his performance as a sprinter in this years race. His odds are as high as 51.0. Not for me.
Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) is my lone remaining tip for the Green Jersey following the demise of Sagan and Demare. Colbrelli is better than his results have suggested so far in the Tour. He has been hampered by poor positioning in the last two sprint finishes. As per the norm he can be backed at 51.0 for the stage win.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 10 – Tips
This is tough – Kittel’s odds are unappealing and the other sprinters are inconsistent. I’m going for one stage bet and a number of tips from the Head-to-head markets.
Bet on Andre Greipel to win stage 10 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.00 with Paddy Power.
Back the Field vs Marcel Kittel with a 3.0/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Back Sonny Colbrelli to beat Rudiger Selig with a 2.50/10 stake at 2.20 with Bet365.
WON – Back Edvald Boasson Hagen to beat Michael Matthews with a 2.50/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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