UCI Cycling – Tour de France 2017 Stage 13 – Betting Preview

Tour de France 2017 Stage 13 is the second of the Pyrenees stages and takes place on Bastille Day – 14th July. This is the stage in the Tour that the French riders love to try to win.

Stage 12 was spectacular with Romain Bardet giving me another stage win.

I don’t do this very often but I want to say well done to three riders:

  • Jakob Fuglsang for completing the stage with two broken bones in his left arm;
  • Stephen Cummings – so close to another Grand Tour stage win;
  • Michal Kwiatkowski – stunning work at the front of the Sky train (he lost 17 minutes in the final 10 kms of stage 12).

Tour de France 2017 Stage 13 – Profile

Stage 13 is a really short stage at 101 kms. It takes the riders from Saint-Girons to Foix in the Pyrenees mountains.

The route is reminiscent of some of the mountain stages in recent Vuelta Espana’s. The idea behind these short mountain stages is that they are raced pretty much flat-out. In the Vuelta this type of stage has brought high excitement. The Tour organisers are hoping for the same here.

The Intermediate Sprint comes at 13.5kms. The rest of the stage is essentially three category 1 climbs and then their descents. The climbs are:

  • Col de Latrape (1, 110 m) – peak at 31.0 kms – 5.6 km long climb at 7.3% – category 1
  • Col d’Agnes (1, 570 m) – peak at 46.5 kms – 10 km long climb at 8.2% – category 1
  • Mur de Péguère (1, 375 m) – peak at 74.0 kms – 9.3 km long climb at 7.9% – category 1
Like many of the mountain stages in this years race the finish line is in a valley not on a peak. The descent from the summit of the Mur de Péguère is 27 kms and it is fast. Look for the brave to aim to gain time on this part of the stage.
To me this looks like a dangerous stage for the GC riders. Teams will be aggressive throughout knowing the stage is short. Riders will want to maintain their GC places – right through the top 15 or so riders. This means we can expect hectic racing and I feel we see a second GC battle in a row. The top of the GC is so close that we will have 4 nervous teams controlling the race. The bookmakers think otherwise in a big way!

Tour de France 2017 Stage 13 – Favourites

Fabio Aru (Astana) is the new race leader. I didn’t think that would happen but seeing the final slope for stage 12 on the television it didn’t surprise me that Froome lost time. Now Astana have to defend their race leader from Team Sky, AG2R and Canaondale-Drapac. This will be a new role for the team and they might be down to 7 riders as Fuglsang may not start on stage 13. Aru is a massive 26.0 for the stage win!

Chris Froome (Team Sky) looked set to hold onto yellow on stage 12 but lost 20 seconds in the final 400 metres. His team were magnificent on Thursday but Froome wasn’t able to stick with Bardet, Aru and Uran at the stages end. Stage 13 suits him better – he does his best work on the longer mountain climbs and remember he descends as well as any of the GC riders. Like Aru, Froome is also 26.0 for the win.

Romain Bardet (AG2R la Mondiale) will now be believing he can win the Tour. I tipped him pre-race and he has looked brilliant. His win on Thursday was superb and he is now within 25 seconds of the race lead. Like Froome he will be looking at the final climb and descent on stage 13 as a chance to gain more time. I’m shocked he is as high as 19.0 for the stage win. I am all over thisas an EW (each way) bet!

Rigoberto Uran (Canondale-Drapac) continues to amaze in this years race. He too must now feel he has a chance to win the race! Remember, he won stage 9 which had a very similar profile to stage 13. Uran must now be considered as a stage winning threat and the bookies think so too with his odds at 12.0

Dan Martin (Quick Step-Floors) will be a little disappointed with his final place on stage 12. The gradient in the final 400 metres of the climb looked ideal for him to launch one of his stinging attacks. Maybe, the effects of the crash on Sunday played their part. Martin too can be backed at 19.0 – more EW value. From this GC group he would be the rider I would back in a sprint.

Mikel Landa (Team Sky) beat team-mate Froome to the line on stage 12. He looked very easy leading the GC group up the final climb and has now moved up to 7th overall. If he replicates that form on Friday then he too must be considered as a potential stage winner. The team could get Landa in the break forcing the other teams to chase allowing Froome the chance to counter-attack. His odds for stage 13 are 101.0 – that seems ridiculous.


Tour de France 2017 Stage 13 – Outsiders

GC Riders

Assuming we have the expected GC fight again on Friday I feel the top group will once more contest the stage. The 3 riders below are also in the top 10 of the GC and have an outside chance of the win. I’m only going to mention their odds:

  • Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) – odds 34.0;
  • Louis Meintjes (UAE Team Emirates) – odds 126.0 – these actually have EW potential;
  • George Bennett (Lotto NL_Jumbo) – odds 81.0.

Breakaway Riders

This is a bit of a lottery. Some of the break specialists like Stephen Cummings and Thomas de Gendt were in the break on stage 12. I cannot see them going again. There are rumours that others have illness – Pierre Rolland and Thibaut Pinot. You can back each of these riders for stage 13 but I wouldn’t touch any of them.

A rider I mentioned yesterday – Warren Barguil (Sunweb) might see stage 13 as ideal for padding his lead in the KOTM classification. He has a 38 point lead but if the GC riders attack the stage that could plummet. So I think he has to try to attack and make it into the break. The bookies think like me as he is stage favourite at 10.0.

Jarlinson Pantano (Trek-Segafredo) may finally be given the freedom to attack now that Alberto Contador is outside the top 10. He hasn’t looked to be at the level he attained in last years race and 15.0 looks too short to me.

BMC Racing would like to get a stage win from this years tour and Alessandro De Marchi is a possible choice. He is a break specialist who is well down on GC. I’m not biting however at 19.0.


Tour de France 2017 Stage 13 – Tips

Bet on Romain Bardet to win stage 13 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 19.0 with Paddy Power.

Back Dan Martin to win stage 13 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 19.0 with Paddy Power.

WON – PLACED 4TH – Bet on Mikel Landa to win stage 13 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 101.0 with Paddy Power.

Back them here:


 

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