Tour de France 2017 Stage 9 takes place on Sunday 9th July. This is the final stage before the first rest day. The stage looks to be brutal and I think we’re in for a grand GC battle.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 9 – Profile
Stage 9 is a brute! The days racing starts with a climb and goes up and down all day. This is by far the toughest stage so far in the 2017 race.
The stage itself is 181.5kms in length from Nantua to Chambery. Sadly, in another brain-fart by the race organisers, the stage ends in a valley. One of the classic climbs that dot the route should have been given a mountain-top stage finish status. From a betting perspective this makes the stage slightly trickier to predict.
Stage 9 contains a staggering 7 climbs – three of which are HC (off category – the toughest of all):
- Km 3.5 – Côte des Neyrolles – 3.2 kms at 7.2% – category 2;
- Km 11.0 – Col de Bérentin – 4.1 kms at 6.1% – category 3;
- Km 38.0 – Côte de Franclens- 2.4 kms at 6% – category 3;
- Km 67.5 – Col de la Biche (Croix de Famban) (1 316 m) – 10.5 kms at 9% – category H;
- Km 91.0 – Grand Colombier (1 501 m) – 8.5 kms at 9.9% – category H;
- Km 134.0 – Côte de Jongieux – 3.9 kms at 4.2% – category 4;
- Km 155.5 – Mont du Chat (1 504 m) 8.7 kms at 10.3% – category H
Tour de France 2017 Stage 9 – Favourites
Chris Froome (Team Sky) had not shown his best form leading into this race. What he did show in a couple of races i.e. the Dauphine, is that he is now an elite descender. On the final stage in the Dauphine he attacked GC rival Richie Porte just before the peak of the second last climb. He summited about 10 seconds up but by the time the descent from that mountain finished he gained about 35 seconds. I feel this was preparation for this stage in particular and that tactic will be employed once more on Sunday. He us stage favourite at 8.0.
Fabio Aru (Astana) looked super winning the first proper mountain stage in this years race. Froome and Porte seemed willing to let Aru’s attack go on that stage – a signal they don’t really fear him in this race. If Aru is to be a serious threat to win the stage then he will need to show again on Sunday. Like Porte, Froome was able to take time from Aru on that descent in the Dauphine. Can Aru match Froome on a day of continual climbing? I’m not convinced (yet) but there is EW value at 10.0.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) will need to summit Mont du Chat with at least a 45 second lead on Froome if he wishes to take back time on GC. I’m not sure he will attack that early – I would estimate he would need to start attacking before the halfway point on the climb. That would mean riding for 30kms at the front of the race. After watching the earlier mountain stage I’m not sure this is possible. Porte is as high as high as 17.0 – not for me.
Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale) is another rider I like on this stage. Of the GC riders I like his ability to descend – he is on par with Froome. If he and Froome were to approach the line together then I think Bardet could nick the win. Bardet should be able to climb with the top men on the stage and he needs to make up some time on his rivals on GC. Bardet is as high as 13.0 with one bookmaker and I feel there is some value in his selection.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 9 – Outsiders
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) and Alberto Contador (Trek-Segafredo) were both dropped on stage 5’s mountain top finish. I predicted that might happen and it does not bode well for their chances on this stage. Quintana looks out of sorts and seems to be a follower now rather than an attacker. Contador is fighting father time. I cannot see either winning stage 9. They are available at 26.0 and respectively.
Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) I feel will be towards the front on stage 9. He looked really strong on stage 5 and is well placed on GC in 6th place. Yates was fine once more on stage 8 and I feel he could be in the mix for the win on stage 9. Yates is adept at seizing an opportunity. I like his odds in the 34.0 range and also like him in one of the head-to-head match-ups.
Geraint Thomas (Team Sky) looks like the designated number 2 rider at Sky. He did lose a little time on stage 5 and will be a support rider for Froome here. Thomas has shown enough this season to suggest to me that he won’t be that far away come the end of the day. Watch out also for Mikel Landa and Sergio Henao on this stage. Each has the ability to win this type of stage but will likely be on guarding duty for Froome. Were a group of 10-12 riders to summit the final climb together then I would expect one or more of the Sky riders to be with Froome. They then become options for the stage win at decent odds. Of the three Landa is best priced at 67.0 – the others can be backed at 101.0. You would have to think they would cede their position to Froome for the bonus seconds if one of them gets to the line in a small group.
Rafal Majka (Bora-Hansgrohe) seems to have GC and KOTM Jersey aspirations. Of the two the latter is his best bet im my opinion. Odds at 34.0 don’t interest me.
Louis Meintjes (UAE Team Emirates) is Yates main rival for the White Jersey. On past TDF performances Meintjes should be in the top 10 on this type of stage. He isn’t the best descender however and I think 81.0 looks about right for his chances. I do like him in a head-to-head however.
Dan Martin (Quick Step-Floors) would be the rider the GC rivals would fear if he were in a small group at the finish. Martin can be explosive and with no Valverde to beat I like his chances of stage honours at 12.0.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 9 – Tips
PLACED 3RD – Bet on Chris Froome to win stage 9 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 7.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Fabio Aru to win stage 9 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 10.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Simon Yates to win stage 9 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 34.0 with Paddy Power.
Head-to-Head
WON – Back Louis Meintjes to beat Alberto Contador with a 3.0/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Simon Yates to beat Rigoberto Uran with a 3.0/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
