Tour Down Under 2017
The Tour Down Under 2017 is a 6 stage event around Adelaide in South Australia. There are flat stages and some that are classed as hilly. The 20017 race, held between 17th and 22nd January is the 19th edition of the Tour Down Under. There is no time trial in the event.
I will only be previewing the market for the overall winner in this years race.
The Tour Down Under is the first major race of the 2017 season. Many riders are using this as part of their training for races later in the season. Others might look for a stage win or classification challenge. The difficulty from a tipsters perspective is that the riders have no form to speak of making concrete selections tricky. To mitigate this I will only look at the main market available in this race.
Stages
The map shows the race route. The first five stages are all of a similar distance. The first four are lumpy stages but not too difficult. Stage 5 finished with two significant climbs in the final 35kms – as Willunga Hill is ascended twice. This is likely the crucial stage of the 2017 race.
1st Stage – 17th January – Unley – Lyndoch – 145kms
2nd Stage – 18th January – Striling – Paracombe – 149kms
3rd Stage – 19th January – Glenelg – Viktor Harbour – 144kms
4th Stage – 20th January – Norwood – CampbellTown – 150kms
5th Stage – 21st January – McLaren Vale – Willunga Hill – 152kms
6th Stage – 22nd January – Adelaide – 90kms
Previous Winners
2012 – Simon Gerrans – Australia – GreenEDGE
2013 – Tom-Jelte Slagter – Netherlands – Blanco Pro Cycling
2014 – Simon Gerrans – Australia – Orica-GreenEDGE
2015 – Rohan Dennis – Australia – BMC Racing
2016 – Simon Gerrans – Orica-BikeEDEGE
Four of the last 5 events have been won by an Australian with Gerrans claiming three of those victories. Gerrans also won the race in 2006 and the Australian riders have an overall record of 11 wins in the 18 completed races.
Contenders for Victory
A number of riders have switched teams for the 2017 season. Some new teams have been formed and a number of others have changed sponsorship and thus their names. I have included the riders team names in my preview below.
Australian riders
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) finished runner-up in 2016 with a stage win (5th Stage) in his first season with BMC racing. Surprisingly, as arguably the best multi-stage racer Australia has produced bar Cadel Evans, Porte has not won this race. This year he is gunning for the Ochre Jersey as race winner. Porte has the ability to win this race and would love to do so on home soil. I think the bookmakers have him correctly installed as favourite at 3.0.
Simon Gerrans (Orica-Scott) is the king of the Tour Down Under with a record 4 wins. He shouldn’t be overlooked but is coming off a disappointing 2016 season. He won here last year but never really challenged for any of his other main objectives e.g. Amstel Race, and looked a little off the pace. He is 4th favourite for the overall win at 11.0 and I feel this is too short.
Rohan Dennis (BMC Racing) won the 2015 race but is here in 2017 as a foil for team leader Richie Porte. He will be close to the front of the race as his role will dictate this but I think he too is a little short at 14.0.
Other Challengers
There are some big names in the field in this years race. The Tour Down Under is gaining popularity on a yearly basis and the big teams are starting to send some of their top riders.
Esteban Chaves (Orica-Scott) is a young rider of immense promise. Of those in the race he is the one that looks most likely to be a future Grand Tour winner. The only riders to beat him in Grand Tours in 2016 were Vincenzo Nibali and his ‘miracle’ in Italy and the best two GT riders of all – Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome. Chaves is second favourite here at 6.50. He will be a huge danger on Stage 5 as his explosive climbing style suits the terrain perfectly. For me though he is here more for the sponsors benefit. His main challenges are later in the season and his form will peak then.
Sergio Henao & Gerraint Thomas (both from Team Sky) can be backed at 7.50 and 13.0 respectively. They each have the ability to win this race. Thomas won Paris-Nice in 2016 against a top class field. Henao can climb with anybody, especially in the short multi-stage events like this one. Again, I’m not sure that this race is a key focus for either rider. Team Sky might like a victory to give them some positive PR at a tricky time. Of the two I would favour Henao as being the more likely challenger overall.
A pure sprinter has won this race on two occasions – Andre Greipel (2008 & 2010). This bodes well for world number one Peter Sagan in his new Bora-Hansgrohe team. Sagan was magnificent in 2016. He won his first Monument, he won another Tour de France Green Jersey and 3 stages. He followed this up by defending his World Championship Road race crown.
Sagan can and has won on similar terrain to that he will ride in the Tour Down Under. I would imagine his first serious aims of the 2017 season are Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. They are still 3 months away so it might be asking Sagan a lot to contend for overall victory here. Sagan can be backed at 17.0 – possibly worth a small EW bet but I think he struggles on stage 5. If you are looking for a stage winner though Sagan could be your man on the first 3 days of racing.
Outsiders
I will include a number of riders here that have the ability to win this race and include their odds:
- Robert Gesink (LottoNL Jumbo) – 23.0;
- Diego Ulissi (UAE Abu Dhabi) – 26.0;
- Jesus Herrada (Movistar) – 34.0;
- Wilco Kelderman (Team Sunweb) – 34.0.
- Tom-Jelte Slagter (Cannondale-Drapac) the 2013 Tour Down Under winner is also available at 34.0.
Each of these riders have the skills to win this years race. They can all climb well enough to stay with the likes of Porte. In fact I like Ulissi to challenge Chaves and Porte for the stage win into Willunga Hill on 21st January. Winning here would be a breakthrough to a higher level for Gesink, Ulissi, Herrada and Kelderman. Victory would be a justification of their early career promise and be a really big deal for their respective teams. Of this group I like Ulissi for a small EW bet.
Tour Down Under 2017 Tips
WON – Back Richie Porte to win the Tour Down Under with a 2.5/10 stake at 3.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Sergio Henao to win the Tour Down Under with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 7.50 with Paddy Power.
Back Diego Ulissi to win the Tour Down Under with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 26.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on all three riders here:
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