Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 5 – McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill (152kms)
Stage Five of the Tour Down Under 2017 takes place on Saturday 21st January. Remember, this is in Australia so the stage start time will be around midnight UK time on Saturday morning. Get your bets in early.
The Australian dominance of the race continued on Friday with Caleb Ewan winning his third stage. Can compatriot Richie Porte win his second on Saturday and keep the Australian stage clean-sweep alive?
Stage 5 is all about the final 40kms. This is where this years race will be won or lost. The start and mid-section of the stage are relatively straightforward. The riders leave McLaren Vale and ride a 35km circuit three times. This includes a small climb and is prime territory for a breakaway to escape and build a lead.
Once the riders reach the 110km point the racing will begin proper with the first of two ascents of the brutal Willunga Hill. This is 3kms long at an average gradient of just over 7% – the toughest climb on this year’s race. There is a small plateau at the top of Willunga Hill and then a sharp steep descent back to the town of Willunga. Then the riders have to climb the Hill again with the finish line at the peak.
The Contenders
Race leader Richie Porte (BMC Racing) is unbeaten on this climb. Porte was explosive and very impressive in winning stage 2 and looks to be the best climber in the race. It comes as no surprise that he is stage favourite and his odds reflect his expected dominance – 1.83. This is a Win Only price and requires a decent stake to get a proper return.
Porte’s closest challengers are expected to be those close to him in the overall General Classification. Sergio Henao (Team Sky) is second favourite at 4.50 but he never really looked to be in contention on stage 2 finishing 12th. I think this is too short and may show a bit of British Team bias by the British bookmakers.
Esteban Chaves (Orica-Scott) is third favourite for the stage win at 6.00. Chaves tried to counter Porte’s blistering attack on stage 2 but couldn’t follow. He finished 3rd on the stage some 16 seconds back. Chaves is however an incredibly explosive climber. I think he will go well later in the season in the Grand Tours. Right now I feel he is a little bit behind Porte in terms of sharpness so I can’t see him winning but he could get a top 3.
Gorka Izaguirre (Movistar) sits second overall in the race 20 seconds in deficit on Porte. It was Izaguirre who launched the counter-attack on stage 2 and he ultimately finished 2nd on the stage. He did look fairly impressive and I’m a little surprised he has odds of 41.0 for stage 5. To me this is the real value EW bet in the market.
Rohan Dennis (BMC Racing) is the other rider that I like on stage 5. He came 8th on stage 2 but had been hampered by a puncture and a chase back in the final 15kms of that stage. Dennis won the race in 2015. He will need to be near the front to help Porte and I feel he could surprise. His odds of 10.0 offer some hope in the EW market.
Outsiders
There are a small group of riders who could emerge as potential threats for those above. They include Diego Ulissi (UAE Abu Dhabi), Robert Gesink (Lotto NL-Jumbo), Rafael Valls (Lotto Soudal), Michael Woods (Canondale-Drapac) and Gianluca Brambilla (Quick-Step Floors). They are priced in the 19.0-67.0 range but I just cannot see any of them beating the likes of Porte.
Tour Down Under Stage 5 Tips
WON – Back Richie Porte to win stage five with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back Gorka Izaguirre to win stage five with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 41.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
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