The 100th or centennial edition of one day classic, Tour of Flanders or ‘The Ronde’ takes place on Sunday 3rd April, 2016 in Belgium. This is my favourite one day race and is the second ‘Monument’ of the season.
The Course
The Tour of Flanders is a race that every rider in the peloton wants to win. With this year being the 100th running there is some extra kudos for the winner.
The route itself is 260km through East and West Flanders.
The course is incredibly tough – starting in Bruges and finishing in Oudenaarde. The course features 17 sections of cobbles, dirt roads, 18 short sharp climbs (many of them cobbled) and when it rains is littered with crashes and drama.
Some of the cobbled sections have names that anyone interested in pro cycling can recall easily – particularly the two famous cobbled climbs – Oude Kwaremont and Koppenberg.
Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of Tour of Flanders were:
- 2011 – Nick Nuyens (BEL) – Saxo Bank SunGard
- 2012 – Tom Boonen (BEL) – Omega Phrama-Quick Step
- 2013 – Fabian Cancellera (SUI) – RadioShack Leopard
- 2014 – Fabian Cancellera (SUI) – Trek Factory Racing
- 2015 – Alexander Kristoff (NOR) – Team Katusha
Type of Riders suited to this race
There is no doubt this is a tough mans race. The climbs, the cobbles and the mud when it rains make this race one of attrition – with the strongest surviving. The powerful riders feature and history shows that riders who win once often go on to win this race multiple times. Boonen and Cancellera both have a hat-trick of victories.
The Clear Favourites
On paper and current form this really does look like being between two riders – Fabian Cancellera (Trek Segafredo) and Peter Sagan (Tinkoff).
Both riders are in excellent form. Sagan has featured in the top ten multiple times during the 2016 season including:
- 2nd place finishes at – E3 Harelbeke, Tirreno-Adriatico (7 stage race) and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad
- 4th place – Strade Bianchi
- 7th Place – Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne
Last weekend he broke the streak of 2nd place finishes beating Cancellera and two others in a sprint finish at Gent-Wevelgem.
He doesn’t quite seem as explosive in a sprint finish as in previous years but has become a more rounded and dangerous rider. In previous seasons Sagan would feature late in the Monuments but not quite have the power to go with the final break – usually by Cancellera. He proved last week by leading Cancellera away from the front group that he now has ‘the power’ and that makes him a formidable presence in the peloton. He will be a tough man to beat here – especially if he is in a small group at the finish.
Cancellera, is the arguably (Tom Boonen might disagree) the best classics rider of his generation. This is mooted to be his final season and he is on a mission to win one more Tour of Flanders and in Paris-Roubaix next weekend. Cancellera finished 4th last weekend in Gent-Wevelgem so has form.
His record in the last 5 Tour of Flanders he has competed (he missed 2015 with injury) is staggering. He has 3 wins (2010, 2013 and 2014), a 3rd place (2011) and a DNF in 2012 when a feed zone crash meant he suffered a four-part fracture of the right collarbone ruining his spring campaign.
He is the danger to Sagan but I feel he must break clear of Sagan on the late cobbled hilly sections otherwise Cancellera will lose in a sprint.
The Rest
Tom Boonen (Etixx Quickstep) along with Cancellera has 7 wins in Monuments. Now as he approaches the end of his illustrious career rides more in support of others in his team like Zdenek Stybar, Matteo Trentin and Niki Terpstra.
Etixx Quickstep, are a team built to win classics with the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix 1A and 1B on their 2016 target list. However, they have missed out in the early season classic races. In a few cases they have missed the key breakaway completely and not even had a rider in place to compete for victory at the finish. I think they will put that right on Sunday and challenge for victory with Terpstra or Stybar.
Team Sky are still searching for their first Monument victory. Ben Swift came close in Milan-San Remo with his second place finish. They have a strong powerful team here with Luke Rowe and Geraint Thomas the two most likely to feature at the end. Thomas has looked good in this race in the past, has top ten finishes here and won on similar terrain in the 2015 E3 Harelbeke. This year he impressively won a 7 day race – Paris-Nice and cannot be ignored here. Rowe is perfectly suited to the terrain – a very powerful rider.
Michal Kwiatkowski has great form and goes in as Sky’s team leader but even although he impressively won E3 Harelbeke he is more suited for races like Amstel-Gold.
Greg van Avermaet (BMC Racing) has been the star man in the early spring winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and the 7 day Tirreno-Adriatico. He also has multiple top 10 finishes in the other main one day classics. He will likely be in the front group late into the race but we’re not sure he has shown the power in the last couple of races to escape from Cancellera and Sagan.
Alexander Kristoff (Team Katusha) has finally found some spring time form this season – winning the first stage of the Three Days of Panne and current leader of that race going into todays final stages. He is defending champion winning impressively last season. I feel he lacking a little sharpness this year however and see a top 10 finish but not one to threaten the podium.
Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data), Sep Vanmarcke (Lotto-Jumbo) and Dries Devenyns (IAM Cycling) all have the strength and ability to feature.
Of the three Boasson Hagen would be most dangerous from a small group in a sprint finish and would likely beat Sagan. Vanmarcke finished on the podium in Gent-Wevelgem but it seems more and more like he will not have that breakthrough moment and win a Monument. I think Devenyns will be a good shout to finish in the top 10.
Things to Know
There are two things that can make this race unpredictable.
The first is the weather. If it rains and there is wind – anything can happen. The current forecast is quite decent, with a low chance of rainfall.
The second is crashes and/or punctures. This especially true on the cobbled sections and can put a rider out of contention immediately, even if they are simply delayed behind a crash.
Tour of Flanders Tips
WON – I think the bookies have overpriced Peter Sagan, he should be the clear favourite in this race. Back him for a 2.5/10 stake at 5.50 with Paddypower
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Niki Terpstra is my Etixx Quickstep pick – back him for a 1.0/10 stake E/W at 17.0 with Skybet 1/4 odds for top 4).
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Geraint Thomas is my outsider selection – we suggest backing him with a 1.0/10 stage at 29.0 E/W Coral (1/4 odds for top 4).
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