The third and final Grand Tour of the 2016 season – the Vuelta a Espana runs between 20th August-11th September. The 2016 edition will be the 71st time the race has been held.
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Vuelta a Espana – The Route
The 2016 Vuelta a Espana, like all Grand Tours, comprises 21 stages. This year the riders that complete the course will cycle 3,315kms.
The route map above shows that the majority of this years race takes place in the north of Spain. A number of stages are along coastal roads. On these stages we can expect cross winds and splits in the peloton.
In terms of stage types – the organisers have classified that there are – 7 flat stages, 1 team time trial, 1 individual time trial and a staggering 12 hill and mountain stages. The mountain stages are staggered throughout the 21 days of racing – so the riders must show up straightaway!
The Vuelta this year will be staggeringly tough. In recent years temperatures have soared towards the 40C marker -making racing even tougher.
Recent Winners
2011 – Juan Jose Cobo (ESP) – GEOX-TMC
2012 – Alberto Contador (ESP) – Saxo Bank – Tinkoff Bank
2013 – Chris Horner (USA) – Radioshack-Leopard
2014 – Alberto Contador (ESP) – Tinkoff-Saxo
2015 – Fabio Aru (ITA) – Astana
One thing that these riders have in common is that they are all very stong climbers. This years winner will follow this pattern.
The last five races have been very close. The largest winning margin in those 5 was 1 minute 16 seconds in 2012. in 2011 Cobo won by only 13 seconds!
Contador has won here 3 times. Were he to win in 2016 he would match Roberto Heras (ESP) for most wins in Vuelta history.
The Classifications
There are a number of different classifications in the Vuelta with specific jerseys awarded to the leaders.
Red Jersey – This is given to the overall leader of the race.
Green Jersey – This is awarded to the leader of the Pints Classification. Points are given at the end of stages and at Intermediate Sprints based on the riders position over the line.
Polka Dot Jersey – The leader in the King of the Mountains (KOTM) classification is given this jersey to wear. Points are awarded on various climbs throughout the race. The harder the climb the more points there are on offer.
White Jersey – Otherwise known as the Combined Jersey. This is given to the rider who is closest to the top of the three categories above. The Vuelta is the only Grand Tour that features this classification.
The team that leads the team classification display their individual race numbers in blue rather than the white used for the rest of the peloton.
The rider who is voted as most combative on a stage will the following day wear a red race number. This makes them identifiable to the TV cameras and rewards their work on the previous stage.
Overall Winner Main Contenders – Red Jersey
Race favourite for 2016 is the aforementioned Alberto Contador (Tinkoff). He is going for a record 4th win here and 8th Grand Tour win overall. Contador was a disappointment in the Tour de France. He fell on a couple of the early stages, showed little form and shipped time on his rivals. Contador has shown some of his old magic in winning the Tour of the Basque Country and the Vuelta a Burgos. He hasn’t been able to stick with his rivals when they have attacked on mountain stages – Chris Froome in the Criterium du Dauphine and Nairo Quintana (Volta a Catalunya). I just cannot see how the bookmakers justify him starting favourite. If you want to back him you can at 2.75-3.25. I would leave this well alone.
Chris Froome (Sky) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar) are just about equal second favourites around the 4.00 mark. Froome won the Tour de France for the third time this year beating Quintana and Contador easily. If he holds that form he will win here comfortably. Froome has competed in the Vuelta on 4 occasions – with two 2nds (2011 & 2014), a 4th (2012) and he pulled out in 2015. This shows that he can cope with the terrain and temperature. Unlike his GC rivals, he rode at the Olympics in Rio – road race and ITT. This might impact his condition.
History is also stacked against him winning. Only two riders Jacques Anquetil (FRA) in 1963 and Bernard Hinualt (FRA) in 1978 have completed the TDF/Vuelta double in the same season. Froome has clearly stated on a number of occasions that he wants to win the Vuelta. Of the big 3 – Froome is my choice as most likely Red Jersey winner come Madrid.
This is the season that Nairo Quintana was due to breakthrough and win the Tour de France. His early season results looked good and I fully expected him to challenge Froome. It never happened. He struggled through the first half of the race and then continued to struggle in the mountains. True, he somehow made the podium in Paris but his performance was hugely disappointing. Quintana has a best finish of 4th place at the Vuelta (2015). This is a little surprising as the terrain (mountains) and temperature (hot) would seem to suit him. Quintana should be better here but I cannot see past the TDF. He would have to improve a lot and Froome drop a lot to win.
Overall Winner – Outsiders
Two riders who featured in the Giro d’Italia come next in the betting markets. Esteban Chaves (Orica) broke through in a big way and finished 2nd at the Giro. He climbed with the best until stages 19-20 and Vincenzo Nibali’s ‘miraculous’ recovery. He is 4th favourite here at 7.0-10.0 but I don’t think he can ride with the big three in the tough mountain stages. Chaves will lose a lot of time in the ITT too.
But for a crash on stage 19, Steven Kruijswijk (Lotto NL-Jumbo) would have won the Giro. He showed a climbing prowess that I had not seen before and was the best rider in the race. The crash directly led to him dropping from a comfortable lead to 4th overall. Like Chaves, he has yet to prove he can climb with the likes of Froome, Quintana or Contador but of the outsiders he has EW value at 15.0-17.0 to sneak onto the podium.
If Chris Froome falters then team-mate Mikel Landa will come to the fore. I hope Sky set the team up to have two contenders and not go all in on Froome. Were Froome to show signs of fatigue then they can push Landa forward. He can be backed in the 15.0-21.0 range. I will wait on this until I see how Froome goes in week one.
Sprint Jersey Contenders – Green Jersey
Unlike other Grand Tours, the hilly/mountainous nature of the Vuelta means that the Sprint Classification is usually not won by a sprinter. Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), a rider with all-round abilities has won this jersey three times (2012, 2013 & 2015) and finished runner-up once (2014). Another noted climber Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha), has finished 2nd 3 times (2011, 2012 & 2015).
None of the worlds elite sprinters are lining up for this race. They are instead focusing on the World Championships later in the year.
The odds for this market favour the overall GC contenders – as expected! You can’t really back anyone other than Alejandro Valverde in this category. He can be backed at odds of 4.33 and this has some serious value. Valverde will be there or thereabouts on the mountain/hill stages and will rack up a tonne of points on those days.
Gianni Meersman (Etixx-Quickstep) is the one outsider that I feel could surprise. He is lightly raced this year but has a decent record in Spanish week long stage races. You could have a cheeky EW bet on him at 23.0.
King of the Mountain Contenders – Polka Dot Jersey
As the Vuelta is usually a mountainous event we would expect the KOTM winners to be won by one of the main GC contenders. That is not the case though – only Denis Menchov won the race and KOTM in the same year this century (2007).
The big three are all priced towards the top of the market in the KOTM. Contador (7.00), Froome (16.00) and Quintana (19.00) all feature in the top 6 with Contador favourite. As I think Froome is the rider to beat overall we will assume he features heavily in the mountain stages. He has shown he is better than Contador in the mountains this year (and last) so 16.00 is a great EW price.
Two riders who were prominent in the mountains in the Giro d’Italia also have interest for me at the Vuelta. Darwin Atapuma (BMC Racing) was seemingly always attacking for stage wins in the mountains in Italy. He has been priced at 13.00 to win the KOTM. This to me is a decent punt as I don’t think team leader Tejay Van Gaarderan will do anything here. This means Atapuma will be given his freedom to attack and go for this classification.
Steven Kruijswijk climbed better than I ever expected at the Giro. Like I mentioned above, to me he cannot beat the big 3, so a great consolation would be this jersey – for rider and team! A price of 26.0 has serious EW potential if and only IF the team realise early that he cannot challenge for the GC.
A rider who has done well for me this season is my 4th choice in this market – Gianluca Brambilla (Etixx Quick-Step). Etixx have no rider for overall victory in the Vuelta so they will be targeting stage wins and jerseys to appease the sponsors. Brambilla have a brilliant Mountain stage win in the Giro this year and has featured in the finale of some of the One day races. He has great odds at 41.0 for a small EW bet in this category.
Head-to-Head
I like one rider in the Overall head-to-Heads.
Louis Meintjies (Lampre) was 10th here last year and an impressive 8th in the TDF this year. He is team leader, he climbs well and I like him to beat Sergio Pardilla (Caja Rural-Seguros). Pardilla hasn’t raced a Grand Tour since his 17th place finish in the 2014 Vuelta. He has some form in shorter races but nothing to match Meintjies. I will back Meintjies at 1.83.
Vuelta a Espana – Tips
Red Jersey
Back Chris Froome to win the Vuelta a Espana with a 2.0/10.0 stake at 4.33 with Boylesports.
Bet on Froome here:
White Jersey
Bet on Alejandro Valverde to win the Points Jersey with a 2.5/10.0 stake at 4.33 with Bet365.
Back Valverde here:
Polka Dot Jersey
Back Darwin Atapuma to win the KOTM with a 1.0/10.0 stake EW at 13.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Chris Froome to win the KOTM with a 1.0/10.0 stake EW at 17.0 with Bet365.
Back Gianluca Brambilla to win the KOTM with a 0.75/10.0 stake EW at 41.0 with Bet365.
Bet on all 3 here:
Head-to-Head
Back Louis Meintjies to beat Sergio Pardilla with a 3.5/10.0 stake at 1.83 with Bet365.
Bet on Meintjies here:
