UCI Cycling – Tour de France 2017 Stage 21 – Betting Preview

Tour de France 2017 Stage 21 is the final stage of this year’s race. It takes place in Paris on Sunday 23rd July and usually ends in a big bunch sprint finish.

This is my final preview of the 2017 race. Thank you for reading my thoughts and I hope you’ve done well!


Tour de France 2017 Stage 21 – Profile

Stage 21 of the Tour de France is short at 103 kms. The route takes the riders from Montgeron to Paris.

Traditionally, the stage is a procession until the riders reach the centre of Paris. The Jersey leaders tend to celebrate with their teams and the media on the outskirts of Paris. This is party time for the professional peloton.

The stage only gets serious when the riders cross the finish line for the first time and the riders start the first of 8 circuits around the Champs Elysees. Riders will try to break free from the front go the race but the stage is usually very well controlled by the sprinters teams. This is because the stage is the unofficial ‘Sprinter’s World Championship’. Of course we could argue that at least 6 of the worlds 10 best sprinters are absent from the race so unofficial is a poor label at best.

The winner of stage 21 has most recently been a battle between the German and British sprinters.


Tour de France 2017 Stage 21 – Favourites

Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) has won the final stage in Paris twice – in 2015 & 2016. This years he goes for the hat-trick and opens as stage favourite at 3.50. Greipel has yet to win in this years race and were he to fail tomorrow his Grand Tour win streak going back to 2008 would be broken. On form I just cannot see him winning the stage.

Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data) is my stage favourite but he is second with the bookies at 5.50. EBH got his stage win on Friday following a number of near misses. Of the riders in the ‘elite’ sprint group he looks to have the best legs in week 3 of the Tour.

Michael Matthews (Sunweb) would love to win stage 21 as the icing on the cake for his Green Jersey win. His team has been the revelation of the race and I wouldn’t be shocked if they add another stage win to their bounty. Matthews is available at 11.0 so the EW bet works.

Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto NL-Jumbo) was strong towards the end of week 2 but has struggled since. I like him but don’t think he has the legs to win in Paris. Odds of 6.0 look too short.

Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) hasn’t been close to a stage win so far – nothing I’ve seen makes me think that can change on Sunday. He looks way short at 10.0.

John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo) is one of the power sprinters remaining and that gives him a chance on the cobbles on the Paris circuit. Degenkolb has finished 3rd and 2nd in the last two sprints he contested and a podium looks possible on Sunday. I like his odds at 11.0.

Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) has had a poor TDF. I don’t think he can turn it around in Paris. In fact I think he would do well to be the top Norwegian in the stage. Not for me at 13.0.


Tour de France 2017 Stage 21 – Head-to-Head

I know Romain Bardet (AG2R) had a shocker in the ITT. He now only leads Mikel Landa (Team Sky) by 1 second for the 3rd and final podium spot. I really do not see Sky nor Landa trying to gain the two seconds needed to jump Bardet. Traditionally, when Froome wins the TDF the Sky team cross the line arms linked towards the back of the peloton. I think they will do this once more on Sunday and thus Bardet will be given an easy ride beating Landa in the head-to-head market.

Asssuming Sky stick to their script Bardet pays me out at a place at 25/1 for in the Race Winner market!


Tour de France 2017 Stage 21 – Tips

PLACED – 3RD – Back Edvald Boasson Hagen to win stage 21 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 5.50 with Paddy Power.

Bet on John Degenkolb to win stage 21 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 5.50 with Paddy Power.

Back them here:

WON – Bet on Romain Bardet to beat Mikel Landa in stage 21 with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.72 with Bet365.

Back him here:


 

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