Unusually for a Grand Tour opener the Vuelta a Espana Stage 1 is a 29.4km Team Time Trial (TTT). The stage on Saturday will be very fast as the terrain is pan flat.
The Profile
Stage 1 starts in Balneario Laias and finishes almost 30kms later in Castrelo de Miño. The profile map shows the terrain the riders will cover. For most of the stage the roads are flat. The overall elevation change from low to high point is about 50 metres. This will favour the teams with a lot of powerful riders.
The only real danger the riders might face is the weather. The early forecast predicts there might be showers during the racing. If the rainfall comes with half the teams having finished then those late starters will be dis-advantaged. The GC contenders teams might not go flat out if there is rain. They can risk losing a handful of seconds on this stage providing they get to the finish line in Castrelo de Miño.
The Contenders
The TTT on Saturday will be the first TTT in any of the Grand Tours in the 2016 season. We need to look at last years results to provide some kind of pointer as to what might happen on Saturday.
The opening stage in the 2015 was also a TTT but that only covered 7.4kms. The route then was incredibly tricky, being along the broadwalk next to a beach. Due to this the GC times were neutralised but the stage win was still up for grabs. Some teams were happy to just complete the stage with no mishaps whilst others went for the win. The top three teams then were separated by 1 second. BMC Racing narrowly pipped Tinkoff-Saxo and Orica-GreenEdge for the win.
NOTE – I wrote this preview before the odds were available. The bookmakers took a long time coming up with their odds as it looks like they were usnsure how to price the stage. Most offer WIN ONLY – Bet365 are the only one offering Top 3 prices whilst Ladbrokes and Coral offer EW on top 2. The limits on EW options, the threat of rain and the huge range in pricing means my bet stakes will be on the small side.
The Stage Favourites
As mentioned in the Overall Betting preview I don’t see BMC Racing having an overall GC rider – sorry Tejay Van Garderen. They will be trying to get stage wins and jerseys in the 2016 Vuelta. The opening TTT is the perfect stage for them to acheive the first of those goals. BMC will want to repeat last years stage 1 victory and I think they will be right in the mix. Win Only odds – 2.75/3.50 except with one bookie that is offering 8.0. There is huge value in that 8.0!
Orica-BikeExchange (formerly Orica-GreenEdge) have a great set of results in TTT over the last 3-4 years. This is an event that Orica target and they will be looking to win the stage. They were third here in 2015 but have a team that can go one better on Saturday. They have a rider in Rubin Chaves who is a possible challenger for the 3rd place on the podium in Madrid. The rest of the team is very strong against the clock and very well-drilled in the skills needed in the team event. Surprsingly to me Orica can be backed at anywhere from 12.0-34.0. Have I over-estimated them of the bookmakers underpriced them?
Etixx-Quick Step have left their best two riders behind in Dan Martin and Julian Alaphilippe. They have a team that has a rider that wil challenge for the KOTM and others for stage wins. A number of riders in the Etixx team are classics specialists – Niki Terpstra, Zdenek Stybar and Martin Velits. These are all strong powerful men that will have little trouble with the terrain on the TTT. Etixx can be backed from 4.50-19.00 to win the stage. This shows the uncertainty in this market.
Astana to lack an overall GC rider with Vincenzo Nibali and Fabio Aru (the 2015 Vuelta winner) sitting this one out. They will target stage wins – expect Michele Scarponi to go in breaks looking for wins on the mountain stages. Astana do have a number of riders the likes of Dario Cataldo and Andrey Zeits who have the power to keep Astana in the mix. I would not be surprised to see them feature come the end of this TTT. Similar to Etixx the prices offered on Astana are huge – 6.0-21.0.
The GC Teams
The Tinkoff team of race favourite Alberto Contador will want to get his race of to a flying start. Individually, the Tinkoff riders are not exceptional time trialers but put them in a team event and they excel. They will do well on stage 1 but I think a number of teams will be that little bit better. The bookmakers hate Tinkoff – pricing them in the 17.0-51.0 range – there is EW value in this price.
Movistar are favourites to retain the Team Classification. They feature 3rd favourite Nario Quintana as well as Alejandro Valverde – a rider who never seems to age! Quintana and Valverde are very stong time trial riders. They are supported by a team that features a number of exceptional TT riders e.g. Spanish Time trial champion Jonathon Castroviejo. They will be in close contention for the stage win and I can see Quintana gaining a little bit of time on Contador and Froome. Movistar are 2nd favourites in the bookies views in the 3.50-4.50 range. I think they will do well but are not 2nd favourites.
Sky feature my pick for overall success, Chris Froome. The Tour de France team was probably a little stronger than the one Sky have here but they are still amongst the top 2 or 3 across all terrains. Froome is an exceptional TT rider – the best in the Vuelta field. He will be ably supported by a group of powerful riders. Ian Boswell, Christain Knees and Salvatorio Puccio will have to put in huge turns to keep Sky close to the front. They will finish in the top 6-7 but I don’t think they will contend for the podium places. I am amazed that Sky are favourites at 3.0-3.50 in the bookmakers view. If they had Gerraint Thomas and Vasil Kiriyenka then maybe that would be the case but they don’t leave well alone.
Outsider
FDJ – The French had a torrid time in the Tour de France with a single stage win and no jersey winners. What FDJ have is a team that has improved massively in the last 2 years at the TTT. True they are missing one or two of their best riders – Thibaut Pinot springs to mind, but the team makeup is perfect for this stage. The price range on FDJ for stage 1 is 26.0-101.0. Might be worth a very small punt.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 1 – Tips
Back BMC Racing to win stage 1 with a 1.50/10 stake at 8.00 with Bwin.
Bet here:
Top 3 Finish (This is a standalone market on Bet365)
Back Etixx-QuickStep to finish in the Top 3 with a 1.0/10.0 stake at 4.00 with Bet365.
WON – Bet on Orica-BikeExchange to finish in the Top 3 with a 1.0/10.0 stake at 4.00 with Bet365.
Back them both here:
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