Vuelta a Espana Stage 10 is the final stage before the first rest day of the 2016 race on Tuesday. The stage features 2 really tough climbs that will see bigger gaps appear in the top 10 of the GC.
I was a little surprised that Movistar allowed the break that much leeway on stage 9. They lost the race lead to David de la Cruz (Etixx QuickStep) a worthy stage winner. Of course this takes some pressure off the Movistar team on stage 10. They do not have to chase any breaks.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 10 – The Profile
The 9th stage of the race is the longest so far at 189kms. The day starts in Lugones and finishes in Lagos de Covadonga.
The profile shows that the first 140kms of the stage are fairly easy. There are some small ups and downs but nothing too taxing. The terrain is ideal for a decent sized break to build a big gap.
The first of the two categorised climbs begins at 142kms. The Alto del Mirador del Fito is a category 1 climb that is 6.2kms in length at 7.8%. The GC teams will ride the Alto del Mirador del Fito at speed and the peloton will lose at least half its riders from the front group. From the peak of the Alto del Mirador del Fito there is an equally steep descent. The riders then reach a flat section with the Intermediate Sprint before the final climb to the finish line starts.
Monday’s finale is a legendary ‘off category’ mountain. The Lagos de Covadonga is a brute of a climb – at 12.2kms averaging 7.2%. At various points on the 12km climb the gradient exceeds 12%. The GC riders will be marking each other closely of the Lagos de Covadonga. They will look for any signs of weakness in their rivals and attack. Movistar, with the re-emergence of Nairo Quintana are in a position of strength.
I would like to see some of the GC riders attack on the penultimate climb the Alto del Mirador del Fito to make the stage interesting. After watching cycling for a large number of years I think this is unlikely though. The GC battle will commence in the final 4-5kms on the Lagos de Covadonga. AS there are time bonuses on the line and the GC is still fairly close there is a strong chance the GC riders battle for the stage win.
The GC Challenge on the Covadonga
The events on stage 8 have more bearing on the GC battle than stage 9. My preview here will focus on stage 8 in greater detail as it showed the GC riders under extreme pressure.
Nairo Quintana showed us all what he is capable of on stage 8, following Froome’s attack and then counter-attacking. This gained him 30+ seconds in the GC fight allowing him to take the race lead. The final climb on stage 8 had incredible gradients in excess of 20% and this suited the lighter Quintana. The two climbs on stage 10 are longer but less steep. This suits the more powerful types of climber like Froome and team-mate Valverde. Quintana is 2nd on GC but race leader de la Cruz will be under huge pressure on stage 10. I think de la Cruz will wear the red jersey for one stage only. Quintana, following his stage 8 performance is favourite for stage 10 at 3.50. This works as a win only selection and it just about works for me.
Alejandro Valverde was magnificent on stage 8 – matching Froome. I thought he was odds on to lose time so that must be a huge bonus and confidence booster for Valverde. Movistar can now play the team game. They can use Valverde and Quintana to launch attack then counter-attack forcing Froome et all to chase. The stage 10 climbs are better for Valverde and he should do okay. Valverde can be backed at 15.0 but I think he is going for 4th place here.
Chris Froome surprisingly lost some time on stage 8. He looked great until about 1.2kms to go then seemed to grind to an almost standstill. He dropped time to Quintana and a little to Alberto Contador too. In truth the performance was on par with expectations as Froome struggles on the really steep climbs. He should be much better on Monday and will have strong support from a team built for the terrain the riders face. Froome simply has to perform on stage 10 – for the GC and also as a show of strength to Movistar. You can back Froome at 5.0 and a podium finish is highly likely.
Contador, like Quintana, seemed reborn on stage 8. He was dropped by Quintana and Froome but managed to catch and pass the latter before the finish line. Was this a confirmation he is back or was it part adrenaline rush form the previous days crash? We will find out I guess. The gradients on stage 8 were definitely better for Contador than Froome. On stage 10 they are reversed and this is reflected in Contador’s status as third favourite at 7.00.
Esteban Chaves, as predicted struggled on stage 8 losing time to his rivals. To some this was a surprise given that he is the lightest climber in the 2016 race. He was stage favourite but this faith was misplaced. The stage obviously went to the break anyway but ge struggled losing time to his rivals in the GC fight. Chaves can be backed at 13.0 on stage 10 but I just don’t see a podium finish for him.
The rest
Daniel Moreno (Movistar), Leopold Konig (Sky) and Simon Yates (Orica BikeExchange) all sit in the top 12 on GC. Their roles on stage 10 will be as support for their team leaders mentioned above. Of the 3 I feel two could cause a surprise ‘IF’ their team leaders play the marking out game. Konig has been the last rider in support of Froome at the end of the recent mountain top finishes showing he is on peak form. Yates, with a stage win has been brilliant in his support for Chaves and he might beat him on the road on the Covadonga. Each have good prices for a small EW bet – both are available to back at 34.0 and bigger!
Darwin Atapuma and Samuel Sanchez lead the BMC charge in 8th and 10th places respectively. Sanchez has looked to be the stronger rider in the Vuelta so far – staying with the elite climbers better than Atapuma. I think he will fnish in the top 10 but not threaten the stage win.
Etixx QuickStep now have the race leadership of de la Cruz to defend. This gives the team interesting possibilities with team leader Gianluca Brambilla on stage 10. Brambilla is the better overall GC hope and is currently 9th at 2:07. There is a possibility that if he attacks on the Covadonga he might be given some freedom due to his time deficit. You could do worse with an EW bet at 15.0-19.0.
One other rider of interest is Pierre Roger Letour (AG2R). He has been finishing with the lead group on most of the mountain top finishes and is in 20th place overall at 4 minutes+. He is not threat to win the race so an attack on the penultimate climb might be allowed to stick. The team need a stage win and I like to look for some long odds for the small EW bet – 126.00 on Letour excites.
The Break
I’ve been wrong on a couple of stages where the break succeeded. This could happen again on stage 10 if the right riders got away i.e. those way down on GC. A couple of factors lead me to think this won’t occur. One, this is the toughest stage so far and one that has massive GC importance. The bonus seconds on offer here might be huge come Madrid. Two, this is the final stage before the first rest day. Teams can give full effort on the Covadonga knowing there is some respite on Tuesday.
Head to Head
There are a number of head to head bets on stage 10 but none really excite me. The bookmakers have picked the selections wisely – and the favourites are all so short. If pushed I would pick George Bennett (Lotto Soudal) to pip Jean-Christophe Peraud (AG2R) at odds of 2.10 with Bet365.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 10 – Tips
WON – Bet on Nairo Quintana to win stage 10 with a 2.0/10 stake at 3.50 with Paddy Power.
Back Pierre Roger Letour to win stage 10 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 126.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Simon Yates to win stage 10 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here:
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