Vuelta a Espana Stage 14 is the ‘Queen’ stage of this years race. The entire stage takes place in France and features four extremely difficult climbs. There is scope for the race within a race scenario to take place.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 14 – The Profile
There is no other word to use than brutal for the profile of stage 14. The riders will cover a total of 196kms by the time they finish. They include 3 category one climbs and an ‘off’ category climb to the finish line. By the end of the day there will be huge shifts in the GC battle and the KOTM classification.
Stage 14 starts in Urdax-Dantxarinea and gradually rises for the first 51kms. The first climb, the Col Inharpu starts and is 11.5kms long at 7.1%. If a break doesn’t go in the lead up to this climb it will definitely go here. The KOTM riders will have to try and be in the break if they want to win the jersey in Madrid. Also don’t be surprised to see a rider from each of the GC teams. They can be of assistance to their team leaders on later climbs.
The roads drop to a valley section before the Col du Soudet starts – a 24km climb at 5.2%. The gradient is tough but the length of the climb is the killer. Should the GC teams want to challenge for the stage win they will start controlling the gap to the break on this climb.
From the peak of the Col du Soudet the riders descend for about 30kms. This leads them into the thrid category one climb – the Col de Marie-Blanque. This is shorter at 9.2kms bit is steeper at 7.5%. Exhaustion will be setting in by this point in the stage – both in the break and the peloton. In fact the peloton should be massively depleted as Movistar, Sky or possibly Orica take control.
A super fast 12km descent takes the riders to the finale – the iconic Col de Aubisque that takes the riders to the finish line in Gourette. The Aubisque has featured in both the Vuleta and Tour de France in the past and is frighteningly tough at 16.5kms at 7.1%.
The queen stage should give us a huge showdown between race leader Nairo Quintana and second placed rider Chris Froome. Whether this is at the front of the race or behind the break remains to be seen.
The Giant in Gourette
I have to start this with a rundownof the GC riders. The recent mountain stages have shown us that Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome are at a level above everyone else. They both have a mountain top stage win and there is a high probability one of the two adds a second on Saturday.
These type of longer climbs have favoured Froome more in the past. He can utilise his teams power, strength and depth to ride tempo all day before attacking on the final climb. This years Tour de France was the perfect example of this – BUT – the Sky TDF team was stronger than their Vuelta team. It may not be possible for them to ride this way on stage 14. Movistar will want to control the speed of the main group and have to defend Nairo’s lead. Sky could play the waiting game and let Leopold Konig and Peter Kennaugh do the pacing on the Aubisque before Froome attacks.
What was telling on stage 10’s mountain top finish was the speed at which Froome caught everyone bar Quintana. If you look at the times Froome rode the last 8kms of the Covadonga quicker than anyone else. Then on the rest day Movistar launched their complaint about the use of ‘power-meters’. To me it looked like fear at what Froome had accomplished. Quintana probably needs a two minutes plus lead to have a chance of holding onto red after next Friday’s ITT. He has no choice but to attack Froome. Froome can defend to minimise time losses but its just not his nature to do so especially if he is feeling good. I can see a cat-and-mouse battle before one cracks the other. My money is on Quintana to pop.
The other riders who will be there or thereabouts on the Aubisque are the next set of riders on the GC. Alejandro Valverde will be helping Quintana but I think this is the stage where he loses time. It happens every Grand Tour and this looks like the sort of stage he has struggled with in the past.
Alberto Contador (Tinkoff) and Esteban Chaves (Orica-BikeExchange) will be looking to close the itme gap on Valverde should he suffer. Of the two I like the chances of Chaves more. He has the bonus of having a great support rider in Simon Yates (7th on GC). Yates could move in to the top five if he can 16 seconds on Konig and 19 seconds on Contador. Konig has the skill set to win the stage but I feel he will be used by the team for the good of Froome rather than for personal achievement.
Of the rest Sergio Pardilla (Caja Rural) has impressed me. Pardilla is a youngish rider with no real Grand Tour experience thus far in his career. He has consistently arrived at the summit of the mountain-top finishes within the top 10-12 places. If the big two mess around on the Aubisque he could be a surprising but worthy victor.
Breakaway Riders
This could be a stage where we see some of the riders in the break come from places 17th-30th on GC. The time gap from Quintana to the 17th rider is just under 8 minutes so no real threat to the red jersey. A number of these riders are decent climbers who given some leeway of a time gap could win on Saturday. From this group I would suggest Pierre-Roger Letour (AG2R), George Bennett (Lotto-Soudal), Darwin Atapuma (BMC Racing) and Louis Mientjes (Lampre-Merida) as having the best chance of success.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 14 – Tips
Bet on Chris Froome to win stage 14 with a 2.0/10 stake at 5.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Simon Yates to win stage 14 with a 0.5/10 stake EW at 34.00 (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
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