Vuelta a Espana Stage 6 takes place on Thursday and should be ideal for a breakaway to claim another win.
Gianni Meersman did the business for me yesterday winning at 3.50!
Vuelta a Espana Stage 6 – The Profile
Stage 6 of the Vuelta is a picturesque stage covering 163kms. The stage begins in Monforte de Lemos and gradually rises throughout the day. The first 85 kms are lumpy but there aren’t any taxing climbs. It is in this section that the breakaway will form. Depending on who is in the break I think there is a strong chance it will succeed.
Between the 86 and 145km points there are 3 significant climbs but only the middle one is classified. This climb is called the Alto Alenza and is long at 10.9kms with an average gradient of 5.2%. The Alto Alenza is peaked at 116kms just after the days Intermediate Sprint point (114kms). If there is a large break, the Alto Alenza will be ideal for the stronger climbers to move away.
The third of the trio of climbs is actually longer (but less steep) than the Alto Alenza and is peaked at 147kms. There follows a quick descent and then a short climb on the lead in to the finish line in Luintra Ribeira Sacra.
The final 2kms of the stage feature 1 km of descent and then the a gradual rise in the final km.
Stage 6 has the hallmarks of the ‘race within a race’. The break riders going for the stage win and the GC riders in a second battle some minutes behind.
Who will ‘break’ our hearts in Luintra Ribeira Sacra?
I’m going for the break to win again so will only look at riders who will be free to chase the stage win i.e. no threat to the GC. Most teams rotate the riders they send in breaks to keep them fresh. Of course there may be a second objective like KOTM points.
The breakaway chancers
Some of the riders who featured in the big break on stage 4 will try to escape again on Thursday. Looking at how Thomas de Gendt (Lotto-Soudal) rode the stage he seemed most interested in the KOTM points – winning the first two climbs of the day. He finished 2nd in the overall KOTM at the Tour de France and it seems he would like to try to win here. I would be stunned if he is not part of the break on stage 6. If de Gendt is in the break then current KOTM leader Alexandre Geniez (FDJ) has to follow. Dd Gendt can be backed at 26.0 and Geniez 41.0.
A number of teams who arrived with pretensions of a GC challenge have seen their leaders fail for various reasons in the first 4 stages. These include Astana (Lopez crash) Lotto NL-Jumbo (Kruijswijk losing time and crashed out), Giant-Alpecin (Barguil sickness) and Canondale (Talansky – lost lots of time). They have to try to get stage wins from here on and they need to be aggressive in breaks.
For Astana my rider to watch on stage 6 is Luis Leon Sanchez Gil. Sanchez Gil is an older rider with Grand Tour stage wins, a Paris-Nice overall win and Monument wins. He also won a stage in the 2016 Tour of the Basque Country and could be the rider they send up the road on Thursday. You can back him at 23.0 – perfect for a small EW bet.
The most obvious choice for a Lotto NL-Jumbo rider to be in the break is George Bennett (odds of 126.0). He was a constant on the breaks in the mountains in the TDF looking for a maiden Grand Tour stage win. He would be a decent choice on Thursday as he could probably climb with anyone else in a break. Another rider from the team who could go for the stage win is Robert Gesink. He has no results in 2016. Surprisingly for a rider with multiple Grand Tour top 10 finishes Gesink has yet to win a Grand Tour stage.
Of the Giant-Alpecin riders the one they might try to get into a break on this sort of lumpy terrain is Tobias Ludvigsson. Ludviggson is one of the better climbers in the team and held the Young Riders Jersey for 3 stages at this years Giro.
Canondale have a number of riders that could feature in a break. Pierre Rolland could feature once more after going close to the win on stage 4. I prefer picking Moreno Moser at 81.0 as the Canondale rider most likely to feature on Thursday. Moser, a former winner of Strade Bianchi, can get over this sort of terrain with aplomb. From a breakaway he would be a dangerous rider and one that could win the stage. Canondale might go for the two up in the break and if so Simon Clarke would be the second rider that should feature. Clarke won the KOTM and a stage in the 2012 Vuelta so he can climb. He is a combative rider who will try the audacious at times. He could be one to watch here.
Best of the Rest
Katusha will try to get a rider into the break on Thursday following their near miss on Stage 5. Rein Taarame at 81.0 would be my choice from Katusha as their most likely stage winner in this race. I think he will have a proper go on a slightly tougher stage later in the race. I had earmarked Tiago Machado as the most likely to attack on this stage but he went away on stage 5 instead. Choose one of the teams Russian riders instead – say Pavel Kochetkov.
A number of other riders are likely to try to get into the days break. Look at teams like AG2R, IAM Cycling, Cofidis, Caja Rural-Seguros and Bora-Argon to try for the stage win. They will have a number of riders in the 101.0-301.0 price range pre-stage that could pay huge rewards. A rider from each team that I like are Pierre Roger Letour, Marcel Wyss, Jerome Cousin, Lluis Mas Bonet and Cesare Benedetti.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 6 – Tips
Back Thomas de Gendt to win stage 6 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at odds of 26.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Moreno Moser to win stage 6 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at odds of 81.0 with Bet365.
Back Pierre Roger Letour to win stage 6 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at odds of 201.00 with Bet365.
Bet on all 3 here:
