Vuelta a Espana Stage 8 features a much feared climb in the finale – La Camperona. The steep slopes of La Camperona will be the battlefield for a huge GC showdown.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 8 – The Profile
The 8th stage of the 2016 Vuelta is fairly benign for the first 172 of the stages 181.5kms. It starts in Villalpando and climbs very gradually for 170kms. The elevation gain is only about 200 metres in total in this time. Then the peloton hit the only classified climb of the day – La Camperona as the stage finishes in Valle de Sabero.
La Camperona is 8.5kms in length with an average gradient of 7.4%. That is tough but it doesn’t tell the entire story. The first 3.5kms average about 3%. Then the gradient ramps up with a short 25% section and is followed by a series of sections above 20%. The final 2.5kms average around 16%.
The mountain has been classified as a category 1 climb – rightly so. It was first climbed in this race in 2014 – a stage won by 2016 race favourite Chris Froome (Sky). That stage featured a large breakaway group that was hauled in on La Camperona for the GC riders to do their thing. There is about a 99.9% chance of a repeat GC battle on Saturday.
Champion of La Camperona
I think there are two or possibly three riders who can win this race and the stage – Chris Froome, Esteban Chaves (Orica BikeExchange) and possibly Nairo Quintana (Movistar). The bookmakers and some of the cycling pundits believe there is a 4th – Alejandro Valverde (Movistar). I will start my betting preview with them.
Froome has to be in the running for stage honours on Saturday. He won here in 2014 and performed better than expected on the brutal finale on stage 3. On stage 3 the consensus was that the gradient would be too steep for Froome and he would lose a handful of seconds to his GC rivals. Of course he paced the climb, dropping back at first but climbing through a tiring lead group who went into the red too quickly. In the end he matched Chaves and Alejandro Valverde and took time off everyone else. In my opinion Froome will want to win on La Camperona. Eight stages will be complete and it would be a good point to take the race lead. His Sky team have the resources to defend his position going forwards. At odds of 6.50-7.00 I’m very happy!
Chaves is the big danger to Froome on this stage. He climbed magnificently in this years Giro d’Italia and will want to produce an emphatic performance on stage 8. That means trying to take time off Froome. If he cannot gain a couple of minutes on Froome prior to stage 19’s Individual Time Trial, then he won’t be wearing red in Madrid. Chaves is favourite for stage 8 at 5.00 but I’ve not seen him beat Froome in a mountain stage yet.
Valverde lost 30 seconds on this stage to Froome in 2014. I think Valverde was a better climber then than he has shown this year. I can see him losing 45 seconds plus on Saturday and Quintana may become de facto Movistar team leader. Quintana just hasn’t produced the results expected this year. The media and cycling world felt he would win the Tour de France but he was roundly beaten into 3rd place. There have been signs in the Vuelta that his form has not improved. He will be close on La Camperona but I think he is riding for 3rd on the stage at 10.0. In fact I like the chances of Ruben Fernandez more at 11.0. Fernandez won impressively on stage 3 and he might be worth a small EW bet here.
The Rest
Alberto Contador (Tinkoff) hasn’t produced the results he wanted in 2016. He was way off the pace in the Tour de France and in the early going this has repeated in the Vuelta. I would be stunned if he turns it around on La Camperona and this is reflected in his odds in the low 20s.
Darwin Atapuma (BMC Racing) will do fairly well on La Camperona. He is a lightweight climber but I question whether he can beat the likes of Froome on such a brutal stage. He might do enough to retain his race lead and could be a decent EW shout for a 3rd place. Atapuma will be supported by Samuel Sanchez (6th overall). I expect Sanchez as a slightly bigger rider to lose a decent amount of time in the final 3kms. Mind you he can be backed at 201.00. That has to be worth a tiny EW bet – the GC riders might look to stage 9 instead and save themselves. Unlikely, but 201.00 for the race leader!
Gianluca Brambilla (Etixx-QuickStep) will be aiming to hold onto his top 10 place on stage 8. I think the competition for the stage win is slightly too tough for him to overcome.
Froome will get massive support on the climb from Peter Kennaugh and Leopold Konig. They will be able to shield and position him in the right place in the early stages. Then Froome can launch his attack maybe following an earlier burst by Kennaugh or Konig.
Simon Yates (winner of stage 6) will be the main support for Chaves. Don’t underestimate him to go really well and at odds in the low 30s could attract some interest.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 8 – Tips
I could take the easy option and back Froome and Chaves but there is no value in this so I back Froome.
Bet on Chris Froome to win stage 8 with a 2.0/10 bet EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 7.00 with Bet365.
Back Darwin Atapuma to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 bet EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.00 with Bet365.
Bet here:
