Vuelta a Espana Stage 11 takes place on Wednesday, a day after the riders first rest day. In the past the stages following rest days are perfect for break success. Will that be the case here?
Vuelta a Espana Stage 11 – The Profile
Stage 11 features another mountain top finish (and there are still 4 or 5 more after this). The stage is 169kms in length. The day starts in Colunga and ends in Peña Cabarga.
The terrain is less lumpy than recent days and features only one categorised climb. The profile shows us that the peloton should have no troubles staying as one until the finale. We can guarantee there will be a break once more. It has a great chance of success with a GC battle raging some minutes further behind on the final climb.
The sprint point comes at 121.7kms but the business part of the stage starts at 163kms. Here the riders face another steep category one climb – Peña Cabarga. The climb is 2.6kms at am average gradient of 9.8%. The first 3 kms average well over 10%, then there is a small flat section of about 700 metres before the slope ramps up once more. The 5th km averages over 10% and the final 500-700 metres over 12%.
Assuming the break survives it will splinter on the climb. The same will be true for the GC riders with race leader Nario Quintana (Movistar) looking to put more time into Chris Froome (Sky).
A Big Performance on Peña Cabarga
Break Riders
Needle in haystack time again!
I would suggest looking at riders who have already featured in breaks and those with KOTM aspirations. I will include their best odds. These include Thomas de Gendt (51.0), Omar Fraile (51.0), Alexandre Geniez (67.0), Matias Frank (67.0), Pierre Rolland (67.0), Joe Dombrowski (71.0), Luis Angel Mate (101.0), Egor Silin (101.0), Jose Goncalves (151.0) and Louis Vervaeke (101.0).
They could be joined by some of the strong men with a bit of climbing ability given the terrain. So riders like – Ben King (251.0), Dries Devenyns (301.0), Davide Malacarne (351.0), Philippe Gilbert (401.0), Zdenek Stybar (401.0) and Silvan Dillier (451.0).
It is a case of take your pick. Of those mentioned I like Fraile, Mate, Goncalves, King, Gilbert and Stybar best. Mate and Goncalves may be hindered by being in the break on stage 10. Canondale are looking for a stage win so I like King to be in the break. BMC Racing and Etixx have seen their GC riders drop down the overall classification so Gilbert and Stybar might be given their legs.
The GC Battle
The Lagos de Covadonga climb was fascinating. I backed Quintana to win the stage and he came through. For a while it looked like he was happy to sit with Alberto Contador and let Gesink win the stage. I was shouting at the television!
The real fascination was the tactics of Team Sky. Chris Froome, my overall race winner selection was dropped really early on the Covadonga – within the first 2kms. He dropped almost a minute to a small GC group including Quintana, his team-mates Valverde and Moreno plus Contador and a couple of other riders. They seemed to be pulling away easily with groups of about 25-30 riders between them and a small Sky group. The gap stayed fairly static for about 2kms then started to slowly come down as Froome slowly increased hs pace. He then dropped his teammates and started picking off groups that were ahead of him. The gap to Quintana and Contador ahead started to decrease. Valverde was dropped with Froome reaching him with 4.5kms to go. It wasn’t until the final 2kms that Quintana finally dropped Contador and started the chase down on Gesink. Froome caught and passed everyone else bar Gesink coming in third.
How was Froome able to respond? He was riding the opening section of the Covadonga conservatively whilst the other GC rivals went into the red. They used more energy than they had and were easy pickings for a fresher rider. The consensus is that Froome has arrived in Spain at about 90% of peak performance. The team know that in the first 10-12 stages he needs to respond rather than attack. They want him to remain in contention for the overall win which is exactly what they have achieved. He is 58 second down in 3rd place but the ITT on stage 19 plays into his hands. On an almost identical course and distance in the Tour de France Froome beat Quintana by 2 minutes 16 seconds. That is the lead Quintana needs to build and possibly even more if as expected Froome reaches his peak in week 3. Stage 20 is an Alpine type of climb which suits Froome too.
So in terms of stage 11 – Quintana has to attack Froome again. He needs time here because the next chance he has will be the mountain top ends to stages 14 & 15. I’m sure Quintana would like the bonus seconds on the line in stage 11 but this is risky. Say Movistar chase the break allowing Quintana to attack and Froome beats him. That closes the gap. This is why I think we will see a break and GC battle.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 11
Bet on Omar Fraile to win stage 11 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Ben King to win stage 11 with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 251.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Bet on Philippe Gilbert to win stage 11 with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 401.0 with Betfair.
Back Zdenek Stybar to win stage 11 with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 401.0 with Betfair.
Bet on Luis Angel Mate to win stage 11 with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 101.0 with Betfair.
Bet here:
