Vuelta a Espana Stage 4 features a second consecutive uphill finish. This time, thankfully it won’t be as tough for the riders as Mondays finale.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 4 – The Profile
Stage 4 is a 163.5km route from Betanzos to San Andrés de Teixido. The stage features 3 categorised climbs and at times approaches the coast.
For the first time coastal crosswinds might have an impact on the peloton. The GC teams will want to be close to the front of the peloton all day.
As the profile shows Stage 4 is lumpy. The first half of the race is dominated by two long category 3 climbs.
The Alto Da Serra Capela begins at about 22kms and will see the riders climb for 6.5kms at a gradient of 4.6%. Not too difficult but long enough for the days break to get away. The top of the Alto Da Serra Capela is a plateau. The second category 3 climb is part of the plateau – Alto Monte Caxado. This is 7.3kms long at 4.6%. Again not too steep but perfect for the break to gain more time.
The next 100kms or so feature ups and downs but no categorised climbs. The Intermediate Sprint (and bonus seconds) comes in the finale of the stage at 149kms. We could see changes in the top 10 at this point. The stage finishes with the longest climb of the day – the category 2 Alto Mirador de Veixia. This is 11.2kms in length but averages 4.8%. So nothing approaching the 13% on the lead in to the finish in Stage 3.
The breakaway just managed to hold on for the stage win on Monday. I would not be surprised to see this happen once more. The final climb, whilst long, is not steep enough for the GC riders to worry about losing time. Of course a determined Sky team (or rival) could burn up the Alto Mirador de Veixia to try to test the legs of the GC riders. In this case we may have two races – for the stage win and for the GC.
Who will star in San Andrés de Teixido?
Breakaway Riders
A huge number of riders could feature here – so my selections are like finding a needle in a haystack. There are a number of riders in this race who specialise in the breakaway so I will start there.
Thomas de Gendt (Lotto Soudal) is my first choice. He won stage 12 on Mont Ventoux in the 2016 Tour de France, held the KOTM Jersey for 6 stages (finishing 2nd overall) and won two combativity awards from breaks. I think he will try for the KOTM jersey here and stage 4 is perfect for him to try to gain some points. At 34.00 I like him for a small EW bet.
Another rider, one of my KOTM tips here that could feature in a breakaway is Darwin Atapuma (BMC Racing). Atapuma finished 9th at the Giro d’Italia in May in a race where he constantly attacked in the 3rd week. He was looking for stage wins there and I feel he could do the same here in Stage 4. Again, like de Gendt he has huge odds – at 81.00 = perfect for a small EW bet. My one concern with Atapuma is that he is only 1 minute 35 seconds from the race lead. This might concern Movistar, assuming they want to keep control of the Red Jersey.
You could look at a large group of other riders that could form part of a break on stage 4. They include the likes of David Arroyo (201.0), Louis Vervaeke (126.0), Christophe Riblon (501.0), Pello Bilbao (301.0) and Jean Christophe Peroud (251.0). Look particularly for Spanish riders on smaller teams. The riders mentioned all have odds that are attractive with small EW bets.
The GC Riders
As I suspected a couple of GC riders have shown they don’t have the form needed to win the Vuelta – Alberto Contador and Steven Kruijiswijk. The former now is 1:31 behind and the latter over 2 minutes. That is a lot of time on the easier stages of the race to lose to their GC rivals. I cannot see them contending for the top 5 let alone race win.
In terms of the GC, the stage the teams feared in the early going was on Monday. Stage 4 does feature more climbing in terms of metres but the gradients are less severe. Hence, the climbs can be more easily managed and any attacks by GC rivals should be easily marked. This is why I’m fairly confident about the break succeeding. If it doesn’t pan out this way then there are a few GC men to consider for stage success:
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) is stage favourite for the 2nd day in a row at 3.50. He is closely followed by Chris Froome (Sky) at 4.5. Froome impressed me most of all the GC riders on the brutal finale on Monday. Stage 3 had the potential for him to lose time but he beat all of his GC rivals bar Esteban Chaves. I don’t think Valverde has a chance of winning come Madrid.
The Alto Mirador de Veixia is the classic Sky climb – a power climb where they can ride tempo shrinking the peloton with every 100 metres climbed. I think both will come in towards the front of the main group in San Andrés de Teixido but behind a small break.
The one danger to Valverde is a small GC group leads the race to the finish line is Michal Kwiatkowski (Sky). He was 4th on the flat bunch sprint on stage 2 taking the race lead. He assumed a team role on Monday, helping Froome on the final climb and lost the race lead. Kwiatkowski should have no issues getting over the climbs in the riders way on Stage 4. If it came down to a sprint he is a rider I would fancy to beat Valverde. His odds of 151.0 are certainly attractive.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 4 – Tips
It is not often that I do this but for stage 4 I’m going for a bunch of small stake high odds bets. Low risk with high rewards!
Back Thomas de Gendt with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.00 with Paddy Power.
PLACED – Bet on Darwin Atapuma with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.00 with Paddy Power.
Back David Arroyo with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Michal Kwiatkowski with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.00 with Paddy Power.
Place your bets here:
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