The play-off ties in the UEFA Nations League conclude on a busy Sunday of action where we will find out the four teams who will compete at the finals in the summer and who will be relegated or promoted from the various leagues.
All four quarter finals are nicely poised heading into the second legs and there are a number of promotion and relegation ties which are delicately balanced as well so we are all set up for a quality and competitive day of football.
Quarter Finals
The defending champions Spain will head into the second leg of their quarter final with the Netherlands level at 2-2 after a late equaliser on Thursday night and they will be expected to progress through to the finals from there but the Dutch will be looking to put a sting in the tail. Those finals look like being hosted by Germany, who will take a 2-1 lead into the second leg of their tie with Italy when the two settle the score in Munich. Two lower ranked sides will be looking to complete upsets against much more established outfits as Denmark take a 1-0 lead over Portugal to Iberia with them while Croatia will head to Paris looking to keep hold of the 2-0 lead that they built up on France in the first leg.
League A/B Play-Offs
It is a big afternoon and evening of action in the battle for League A football next term with Hungary having their work cut out if they are to remain at the top table. They trail Turkey 3-1 going into the second leg in Budapest. Scotland will feel that they took a massive step to securing League A football again next term when they won 1-0 in the first leg in Greece but the Greeks will fancy their chances of turning things around in Glasgow. It is beautifully poised in Belgrade where Serbia go into the second leg against Austria level at 1-1 as they look to remain in the top flight. Belgium have it all to do if they are going to be a League A team next term. They trail Ukraine 3-1 going into their second leg in Genk.
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League B/C Play-Offs
There are spots in League B up for grabs on Sunday but one team who aren’t likely to face too much in the way of danger for their spot at that level are Georgia. They all but secured victory in their tie against Armenia won they won the away leg 3-0 and the home leg should be just a formality. Republic of Ireland will hope that they broke the back of their tie against Bulgaria when they won 2-1 in the first leg and a draw in Dublin will maintain their League B status. Things are much better poised in the other two ties as Iceland will look to avoid relegation when they aim to overturn a 2-1 deficit to Kosovo back on home soil while there is all to play for in the other tie when Slovenia will host Slovakia with their first leg ending 0-0.
Betting
I like three bets over the course of the evening with the first of them coming in the League A/B play-off match between Scotland and Greece where we can get stuck into the game state. Scotland hold a 1-0 lead in the tie after the first leg but Greece will fancy their chances of turning the tie around. They won on their last visit to the UK when they turned England over at Wembley in the group phase and although they went down 1-0 in the first leg, they had 24 shots in that match, 18 of them coming after the break. The good lord only knows what Greece were thinking only giving in form Benfica striker Vangelis Pavlidis 18 minutes in the first leg but we can expect that mistake to be rectified here and he’ll give the Scottish defence plenty to think about. Greece have no option but to play on the front foot here while Scotland will probably know they need to score here to maximise their hopes of staying in League A so this one is very nicely poised for both teams to score.
The second bet of the day for me is a cheeky win double which involves Republic of Ireland to beat Bulgaria and France to beat Croatia. If we begin with the Ireland game, they don’t need to win but I don’t think that means that they won’t win. Bulgaria look a poor side to me and did so in the first leg where despite being away from home, Ireland won the xG battle by 1.85-0.32. Although they don’t need to win to remain in League B, Heimar Hallgrimsson is trying to build something with his relatively new charges and they will want to come out on top in front of a home crowd accordingly. France have to win else their Nations League season is done. They need to win by three to qualify or two to force extra time against Croatia for whom asking their aging veterans to go again within three days of the first leg is a tough challenge. Didier Deschamps was a little conservative in his team selection in that game on Thursday night but he can’t afford to be that way here so expect the star studded French attack to be unleashed and they can bring the second part of the double in.
The last bet I like is for Leon Goretzka to have a shot on target against Italy. He seems to have much more licence to go forward in this Germany midfield and that showed in the first leg where he had four shots in total, putting two of them on target. Germany don’t need to win this match which could be a stumbling block but the 17/10 on a guy who just had four shots away to the same opponents to hit the target here is a price I just can’t ignore. You wouldn’t think it is in the German nature to shut up shop and park the bus so I see no reason why the Bayern man can’t be a similar threat in this second leg, especially if Italy leave themselves open chasing the tie, and that price is too good to refuse.
Tips
Back Scotland vs Greece – Both teams to score for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with William Hill
Back Republic of Ireland to beat Bulgaria x France to beat Croatia for a 3/10 stake at 2.31 with William Hill
Back them here:
Back L.Goretzka – Over 0.5 shots on target for a 3/10 stake at 2.70 with Paddy Power
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