It is time for the third major of the year and after a quite remarkable week even by golf standards, thankfully the attention will turn back onto the course when the stars of the sport come together to compete in the US Open.
Matthew Fitzpatrick won his first major in this tournament a year ago but as is always the case with the US Open he will attempt to make a successful defence of his crown on a different golf course. A stacked field will be out to deny him a repeat success.
Recent Winners
2022 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2021 – Jon Rahm
2020 – Bryson DeChambeau
2019 – Gary Woodland
2018 – Brooks Koepka
2017 – Brooks Koepka
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Justin Rose
The Course
We are at the Los Angeles Country Club this week and it will be the North Course in particular which will be used. The track is a par 70 which can stretch as far as 7,423 yards. That makes it sound like a bit of a monster and there are a couple of par threes which might get ridiculous with the length they can go to but with all the undulations and elevation changes along with the firm and fast nature of the Californian course it probably isn’t going to play quite that long.
The immediately obvious standout feature of this course are the small greens and the heavy punishment for missing them. This is a US Open so we know the rough will be thick around the course but the bermuda rough is clingy and will make scrambling a much different beast. The greens are full of slopes and they are expected to be quick so we don’t want to be on anyone who isn’t comfortable over big putts from the 5-10 foot range. I’m looking for longer hitters who have good touch on and around the greens this week.
The Field
It would appear as though the golfing world might realign in the coming months but for now the fractured nature of it means that the majors are the only time we truly get all of the world’s best together and that is very much the case here. Matthew Fitzpatrick will put the US Open title on the line while Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka, winners of the opening two majors of the year, will both be here, as will Cameron Smith who is five weeks away from beginning the defence of his The Open title.
World number one Scottie Scheffler will be looking to get another major onto his CV while Max Homa will be popular from the home crowds and will be a leading contender if California form is anything to go by. Jordan Spieth goes in search of the career grand slam this week while other stories which will be followed include that of Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Tyrrell Hatton who are all looking for maiden majors while Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Phil Mickelson are among those hoping to add to their major tally.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler is the world number one and elite players have formed the roll of honour of this tournament in recent seasons so it is understandable that he is the 13/2 favourite to win this week. His record in the majors is as good as anyone over the last couple of seasons but if there is a concern for him here it might come in the fact that his putter has been a little on the cold side in recent events and I don’t think the winner here will struggle with the short stick. If he putts well he is the one to beat.
Jon Rahm won The Masters earlier in the year and while his form hasn’t been at the stellar end of the scale since then, it is understandable for a player to struggle a little after such a euphoric win. Rahm is 10/1 to win this week which feels like a good price if he can find his best golf again. We know he is long off the tee and we know he is creative and has an imagination on and around the greens which could see him prosper. I wouldn’t put anyone off at 10/1.
Brooks Koepka is a 12/1 third favourite this week. He delivered the goods for us at the USPGA Championship last month and has won that tournament and this one in the same year before. There is no weakness to his game at all and he will be a leading challenger this week. The only slight doubt might be that he isn’t always the best around the greens but we know Koepka peaks for these things and he eluded to the fact he was practicing hard for it when revealing how he heard about the PGA/LIV partnership. He can’t be ruled out here.
Rory McIlroy is 16/1 to land another major title this week. He has had chances in his last two events but failed to come up with the goods on the Sunday. That is a massive concern in its own right but another concern might be that his wedge play has suddenly hit the skids and accurate iron play or a top class short game is a must this week. McIlroy has a flattering major record in recent times in that he has a number of good finishes but hasn’t really ever been bang in contention come the back nine on the Sunday too often. He feels one who can be overlooked.
Main Bets
I think putting and scrambling is going to be a huge factor this week because these greens are going to get missed by everyone in the field. US Opens tend to be won by the player who holes those big 5-10 foot putts when they are really critical and that all points me to Cameron Smith who holds claims for being the best putter in the game right now. There were doubts over whether the Australian had a wrist injury heading to The Masters but since then he has delivered results of T3-T6-T2-T9-T9 so he arrives in Hollywood in peak form. He won The Open last year with an insane iron game and a hot putter and if he has those attributes with him this week then he is going to take a lot of beating.
Another player who might be hard to beat is Sam Burns. To be fair, there is no getting away from the fact that Burns’ major record is pony but this might well be the week that all changes. Burns sits at 11 on the PGA Tour this season for putts made inside 10 feet and that is a big thing. He is also pretty long and accurate and fits the trend of having won a tournament this season, not just any tournament but the biggest one outside of the majors in the WGC Match Play. That tells me he is due to win a tournament of this kind and given that he is a much bigger price than I would have him slated at I’m happy to pay to see how well he goes.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week and this feels like a place where Si Woo Kim could shine. There have been suggestions that the track will play a little like Sedgefield where the Korean has an excellent record and comes in here in good form with a couple of top 10s in his last four outings. Kim has already won the Sony Open this year and I always like players who have won recently in this tournament. Confidence and belief can be as much of the test as anything in a US Open so the fact Si Woo was fourth in The Memorial last time out, when he was actually in the final group on Sunday, speaks volumes of where he is at. He wasn’t disgraced at The Masters where he finished T29 and although he missed the cut at Oak Hill, a pair of 73s wasn’t exactly a disaster. LACC should play much more to his liking and at the prices I think he is worth a stab.
Another player I like the look of this week is the statistically best putter on the PGA Tour from 10 feet and in, in Denny McCarthy. I really do think holing out on those nervy 10 footers for par could be the difference between a big week and a bad one and with McCarthy coming here in good form he should be backed to hole more than his fair share of those. McCarthy lost out in a play-off at The Memorial and while I hate seeing people smiling when they lose, especially after playing an indifferent final hole, I do think he has enough credentials in his game to be in contention this week. He isn’t overly long but the course yardage at Muirfield isn’t too much different to here so hopefully the firmness of everywhere makes up for that. If it does McCarthy can run hot.
Finally I will go with a real shot in the dark which is Brian Harman. I keep maintaining that putting is going to be so important this week so it makes sense to go with someone who ranks 21 inside 10 feet on the greens. The added bonuses are that Harman has won on a championship golf course at the Wells Fargo and he was second in this tournament six years ago and made the top 20 two years ago. Harman has a good short game and is solid without being spectacular in the long game but that might just get the job done this week. Harman has a top 15 finish in all four majors so the big events don’t overwhelm him in any way. Nobody is better from six feet and in on the PGA Tour this season and with greens running fast and sloping there are naturally going to be a lot of 4-6 foot putts this week. Harman has three top 10s on the season and might prove to be a monster price.
Tips
Back C.Smith to win US Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 29.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-10)
Back S-W.Kim to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-10)
Back B.Harman to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-10)
Back S.Burns to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back D.McCarthy yo win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
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