There is still a little time before they tee off for the US Open Golf so we’ve got a while to go through the many side markets that are always priced up for major events with the aim of finding some decent value like we did in The Masters.
Markets have gone up on pretty much every nationality but we’ve covered a number of those in our outright bets. We’ve got Americans, South Africans, Englishmen and Australians going for us there so we don’t really want to be getting involved in those markets but we’ve found two markets where we think value jumps out.
Top Continental European
It is actually quite rare in a major these days that I’ve not already backed a European but that doesn’t stop us getting involved in this market where there are 18 runners headed of course by the 3/1 jolly Henrik Stenson.
Stenson hasn’t really shown us anything in America in recent times that suggests he’s going to fare well around here. When his putter goes cold it goes frozen cold and you won’t contend around here without a firing putter. It is for that reason we’re dodging the second favourite Sergio Garcia too.
Martin Kaymer is a former winner of this tournament and if I was convinced his game was spot on I’d probably have a go at him but I’m not so I won’t. Rafael Cabrera-Bello has been getting a lot of column inches this year but I can’t believe he’s going to handle this course.
None of the rags interest me in this market. In fact the only three that do are all Scandinavians. They are David Lingmerth, Soren Kjeldsen and Peter Hanson. I’m waiting for the time to get stuck right into Peter Hanson again. It is coming but I don’t think we’ve got there yet.
Lingmerth showed at Jack’s tournament last year how he has an excellent all-round game and I’m incredibly tempted to take him here but of the two I just fancy Kjeldsen is more suited to a US Open so he’s my pick.
I’ve always felt that Kjeldsen is a good player on courses you have to plot your way around and this is very much one of those. He loves it tough where he has to hang on and appreciate par as we saw in Ireland last year, and indeed in The Masters this year where he ran really well on a course which should have been far too long for him.
Not only does he have the mentality for this course he has the game for it too. He’s one of the straighter hitters on the European Tour and finds most greens or the positions he needs to find and his short game has really come on in recent times. I think he’ll have a really solid week and a solid week could be enough for him to be the leading Continental European for the second major in a row.
Top 20 Finish
This is a market that always has a few surprise names on it come the end of the week and I think there’s a few players who are decent enough value to take in it this week in the hope that one of them can sneak into what would be a very solid finish.
The first of those is Russell Knox who was so close to being included in my outright bets for the week. We saw all about Knox’s big time golf credentials at The Players last month and I’m still convinced he would have ran Day close had he not messed up 17 on the Saturday. There is no water around here though so if he gets up there he isn’t going to disappear that quickly.
Knox puts a premium on his par. He is one of the straighter hitters on the PGA Tour and he has a pretty decent short game. We saw on that Saturday at Sawgrass that borderline unplayable greens don’t catch him out. That’s a big thing this week and I fancy his finish will be equally as big.
America won’t know what hits them when the wonderfully bearded ‘Beef’ Andrew Johnston turns up in Pittsburgh but he isn’t just a beard he has some real game too as we saw in the Open de Espana. Not many courses play tougher than Valderrama at that time of year so if Johnston can win around there he can win anywhere.
That win hasn’t affected him either. Since then he has been in the top 12 of the BMW PGA Championship and the Nordea Masters ranking high up in greens hit on both occasions. There is no weakness to Johnston’s game and if first time major nerves don’t get him he could hang in there long enough to snatch a top 20 this week.
Thomas Aiken might not be long enough for this course but at the price I’m going to pay to find out. One thing we do know is he is relentlessly straight so he is worth taking a chance on. If the putter cooperates this week then I’m expecting a big week from the man who led a very good field in fairways hit and putts per GIR at Wentworth last month.
Tips
Back S.Kjeldsen Top Continental European (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
Back R.Knox Top 20 Finish for a 2/10 stake at 4.33 with Ladbrokes
Back him here:
Back A.Johnston Top 20 Finish for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with Betfred
Back him here:
Back T.Aiken Top 20 Finish for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
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