The biggest week in golf is upon us. The second major of the golfing year has arrived as the top players in the world battle it out in the US Open. This is a US Open with a difference. After the easier surrounds of Chambers Bay last year the tournament heads back to the course renowned for being the most difficult in the world – Oakmont Country Club.
Anyone who is currently anyone in the game of golf heads to Oakmont for the biggest test they will have faced in many years. Those names include Jordan Spieth, the man who defends the title he won in dramatic fashion at Chambers Bay 12 months ago.
Recent Champions
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Justin Rose
2012 – Webb Simpson
2011 – Rory McIlroy
2010 – Graeme McDowell
2009 – Lucas Glover
2008 – Tiger Woods
2007 – Angel Cabrera
2006 – Geoff Ogilvy
The Course
This is the first major of the year that alternates courses. This year it is the turn of Oakmont Country Club to play host. It hosts the tournament for the first time since 2007 when Angel Cabrera won with a +5 total score.
As with the majority of US Open courses this one plays to a par of 70 with two par 5s and two par 3s. This particular course has a yardage of 7,254 yards which isn’t particularly long but there are some extremely long holes on the course.
There is a par 3 which can stretch to 288 yards while one of the par 5s measures 667 yards. Five of the par 4s are longer than 475 yards so although the course is firm and fast I do think it will favour those who can get it out there a little.
The course is probably most famous for the sleeper bunkers between the third and fourth fairways. This is a stretch of bunkers with grassy mounds which resemble sleepers but find these and it is sideways out not forward.
I’ve been reading that the fairways are a little wider than usual but there is plenty of evidence that the rough is incredibly penal as is always the case. It is especially thick around the greens so it is crucial that players you take find the greens. The greens are firm so the best chance of finding them comes from being in the fairways.
Just making the greens is hard enough but these greens are described as the toughest in the world to putt on. They are lightning quick and full of undulations so whoever wins this week will have had their all-round game tested to the full.
The Field
As you would expect with a major the very best players in the world are all here so we are all set up for a fantastic week of golf with the best players challenging themselves on the hardest golf course they play in the US Open rotation.
Market Leaders
Jason Day is a 13/2 favourite and shortening by the day. That is no surprise. I think Jason Day has the best all-around game in golf right now although he can be erratic off the tee which is a concern but the rest of his game has looked fantastic all year and it should only be a matter of time before he lands a second major.
Rory McIlroy tees off as a 15/2 to win a second US Open title. He has all the tools he needs to go well around here but I just have my concerns over him both with the putter on these fast greens and mentally as he keeps having lapses of concentration and you can’t afford those around here.
Jordan Spieth is a 10/1 chance to defend his title. At his very best this course could be perfect for him. He is widely regarded as the best putter in the world but I never like taking defending champions because of all the attention on them especially in a major where the worlds media descend. His leaks to the right are a worry too.
Dustin Johnson is the fourth favourite to win the title. Only he will know how he hasn’t won this tournament in the past although one reason for it is the lack of a competent short game. He has the length to be in the mix but if he’s deep in contention on Sunday can he finish it off? You’d be placing the ultimate in leaps of faith in assuming he will. Not for me, Clive, as a certain former regular football commentator would say!
Former champion Justin Rose and the SIX time runner-up Phil Mickelson come next in the betting at 30/1. Normally I’d be right up for Rose in this but he withdrew from the BMW Championship and Memorial with an injury recently and he hasn’t putted well enough all year anyway. Phil Mickelson has everything needed to win here but does he want it too much? It is 33/1 bar those named.
Profile that fits
Really we’re looking for a good all-rounder this week but it is imperative to find these greens in regulation and those who putt well especially inside 10 feet are likely to prosper too because with the pace of these greens there are going to be a lot of 5-10 feet par putts.
Those are the physical attributes but in the main I’m looking for players with a good temperament too. Players who don’t get down on themselves when it gets tough and who take par for what it is. With that in mind bogey avoidance is vital as well.
Main Bets
I’m going with two main bets this week. I’ve a feeling this golf course is going to play very similar to how the Riviera Country Club, home of the Northern Trust Open plays. The greens there are renowned to be difficult to putt on and there is a premium on hitting fairways and greens just like there is here.
In that tournament I took Adam Scott to win it and he came second but there is no reason not to follow him in here. I think it is fair to say that Scott is playing so much better in 2016 than he did at either 2014 or in 2015 and yet in those years he still finished in the top 10 of this tournament so that bodes well.
Scott leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green which is never a bad thing in a US Open. He is 13th for greens in regulation and sits fifth in the all-around ranking this year so his game should be a good fit for this course. He has been putting well in 2016 and we know he doesn’t mind having to protect his par. He is a former winner at Riviera so in theory he should be a leading player here.
Bubba Watson won the Northern Trust Open for the second time earlier in the year and clearly loves it there. He might well enjoy it here too. He was fifth here in 2007 when the US Open was last here and he is an infinitely better player now than he was then.
Bubba is seventh for strokes gained from tee to green and sits inside the top 30 in the all-round ranking. I’d wager he would be a lot higher up all the putting statistics too if he only played on the poa-annua greens that he gets this week. His record at Riviera suggests this should be a perfect fit from the big left hander and if it is he can run the rest very close.
Outsiders
I’m going to throw a few darts around the bigger prices in the market this week in the hope a couple go well and run deep just like Daniel Berger did in The Masters and Steve Stricker did last week. I’m sticking to a similar profile to my main bets.
Marc Leishman was in the top five at Riviera and I’m not surprised by that. He has the game to go well in majors as we saw in The Open last year when he was so close to landing the title at St Andrews in some pretty hot company on that Monday.
Leishman is inside the top 20 in strokes gained around the green and in putting with the latter stat particularly encouraging. He also ranks 16th for total driving which is also good. The Australian is 14th for putting inside 10 feet, fifth in bogey avoidance and sixth in the all-around ranking. Adding that all altogether should make him a nice fit here. I expect a decent run from him.
Retief Goosen is a twice champion in this tournament so we know he puts a value on his par and his putting statistics this season make me think he could be competitive this week. He’s never been too erratic off the tee and if he can keep it in play the stats tell us a big story.
He is first on the PGA Tour for three putt avoidance this season and 16th overall in strokes gained putting. His scrambling stats are decent too so at a three figure price we might get a solid run out of the man who has been in the top 15 in each of his last three tournaments.
William McGirt made it in here when he won at The Memorial a couple of weeks ago and he couldn’t be heading into this tournament in better form. He has a very good record around Riviera as well and anyone who saw his final round at Muirfield Village will see why. He was patient. Hit fairways and greens and two putted and took the occasional birdie when it arrived which is the ideal strategy this week.
You don’t win at Jack’s place if your game isn’t in perfect shape and McGirt’s win wasn’t a fluke. He played well and held himself together very well under pressure. These are all traits that bode well this week and sitting inside the top 20 in strokes gained overall and just on the edge of the top 20 in bogey avoidance the statistics point his way too.
Luke Donald is another player who puts a premium on his par and who has a decent enough record at Riviera for a short hitter and I’m going to give him a go this week too.
Donald is relentlessly straight and his putting has really picked up this year. He is inside the top 20 in putts made inside 10 feet and in the top 10 for bogey avoidance. While I think this tournament will be won by one of the top level golfers we shouldn’t remember Donald is a former world number one. If he can revive those memories this week his accurate long game and excellent short game should see him run well here.
Tips
Back A.Scott to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Leishman to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back W.McGirt to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back B.Watson to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-6)
Back L.Donald to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 141.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-6)
Back them here:
Back R.Goosen to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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