It has been a wonderful fortnight of women’s tennis at the US Open in New York and on Saturday evening a new champion will be crowned as the newly appointed world number one Angelique Kerber takes on Karolina Pliskova in the final on the Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Pliskova has powered her way through to her first major final while Angelique Kerber is in her third Grand Slam final of the year and will be looking to add to her Australian Open title with a win here.
Karolina Pliskova
The Czech star became only the fourth women in history to beat both Williams’ sisters in the same Grand Slam when she overpowered Serena Williams in the semi-final. Prior to that she had seen off Venus Williams in a classic in the fourth round.
All tournament long Pliskova has served fantastically and that has set her up well. She has thundered plenty of winners off the ground too and she isn’t making too many errors which is making her a dangerous opponent. More importantly she has shown few nerves in getting to this stage so there is enough to believe the occasion won’t get to her.
Angelique Kerber
In fairness the German has played like a world number one this fortnight. She has seen off some talented opponents without any fuss whatsoever and she has oozed confidence in everything she has done both on and off the court.
Kerber is serving well and moving fantastically and she is setting points up nicely and when she sees the opening on her forehand that has generally been it as far as the point has been concerned. There is a different kind of pressure playing as a world number one but you sense Kerber has been waiting to play with that tag for so long that it isn’t going to hinder her.
Head to Head
These two have met on seven previous occasions with the latest of them being in the final in Cincinnati last month. Karolina Pliskova won on that occasion by an emphatic scoreline 6-3 6-1. Prior to that Kerber had won the previous two matches but both of them went three sets so we shouldn’t think this will be a routine win for the number one in waiting. Kerber leads the head to head 4-3 in total.
Betting
I’m not going to bet on the match outcome in this final because I’m already on Pliskova to win at 33/1. I actually think she might well win this match although I admit I’m probably looking at it through tinted glasses given that I want her to win.
In truth though both women have looked awesome in this tournament and I’m expecting a tight final. I’m not sure whether that will equate to a third set although I wouldn’t be surprised if it does but I would be surprised if we don’t get a couple of close sets if it is won in straight sets.
The games line here is 21.5 and if we ignore the meeting in Cincinnati, which came just a week after Kerber went the distance in the Olympics, this line would have been covered in four of their previous five. I think there is enough historical evidence and what we’ve seen in this tournament to suggest we might see more than 21.5 games here.
Tips
WON – Back Over 21.5 games for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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