The penultimate quarter final in the Vitality Blast takes place on Thursday evening and we head to Wantage Road for the clash between the second played team in the North Group in Northamptonshire and the defending champions Somerset.
Somerset will be looking for a win which takes them back to finals day to attempt to defend their title but Northamptonshire have won this tournament twice in the past and know how to navigate a home match to get to the big day so this one feels nicely poised.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Cricket channels with the build-up to the quarter final beginning at 6.15pm ahead of the 6.30pm kick off.
Northamptonshire
The season is pretty much on the line for Northamptonshire in this match. They disappointed in the 50 over competition having spent a few quid bringing a couple of Indian overseas players over for that and they are going nowhere fast in the County Championship either so they can put everything they have into this quarter final with the hope of reaching finals day once again. They helped themselves by winning the last three group games to ensure they have home advantage here but that was a while ago.
A lot has changed since then. They don’t have either of the overseas players they started the competition with and Ravi Bopara picked up an injury which ruled him out of this quarter final so this is more of a threadbare Steelbacks side which will take to the field for this game. Generally, Northants have gone well enough with the bat but that department will be tested without two key cogs in the wheel. You sense if Northants are going to win this they’ll need their bowling to get stuck in early in the innings.
Somerset
The defending champions have made it serenely through to the knockout stage to continue what has been a wonderful season in all formats of the game. They are through to the final in the 50 over competition and they sit second in the County Championship at the minute too and are a win away from reaching finals day in this tournament. They will have been disappointed to lose their last group game and miss out on hosting a quarter final but they are still in a good position to make it through.
Somerset generally look to go after teams with the bat and get away from them at the top of the order and that will undoubtedly be their quest in this match, particularly as Will Smeed returns from the injury which kept him out of a lot of the group phase. Somerset are weakened a touch with the ball with Riley Meredith on international duty but they have enough in reserve to give themselves a great shot at getting the job done here.
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Key Players
You get the feeling that if Northamptonshire are going to be anywhere near finals day next weekend then David Willey is going to have to have delivered a performance with either the bat or the ball, or preferably both.
Tom Banton had a decent campaign in The Hundred and if he can get after the new ball attack of Northants and force Willey into changing plans early then Somerset could well be on their way to finals day given what they have to come.
Betting
This isn’t an easy match to bet on because Somerset are a very short price and while I would expect them to win this format is way too volatile to be betting 2/5 or 4/11 shots with a good deal of comfort, not least on a day where there is a bit of weather around. The question is how competitive Northamptonshire will be. I’m not sure of the answer but in Matthew Breetzke and Ravi Bopara they have lost two of their better 20 over batters and as such if they do struggle it could be with the bat in hand. The positive is that they have a few seamers who don’t go round the park too much and a couple of spinners who are handy. We’ve seen the two matches so far have the top orders shot out in no time for the team batting first and scoring has been on the low side compared to earlier in the competition as a result. That makes me think that a 12.5 sixes line is a little on the high side with ball likely to be a match for the bat if not dominate it. If this is another low scoring game that line feels a little high to me.
The other thing we don’t know is who will open the batting for Northamptonshire. Ricardo Vasconcelos is one option but he broken something in his hand in the abandoned match with Gloucestershire in the Championship last week so that isn’t ideal. Even then, he still needs a partner and that could be anyone in truth. I’ll take a punt that it is James Sales. He opened in the 50 over competition a couple of times so he has recent experience of going up the order but even if it isn’t him someone is going to need to go up the order to fill the Bopara void so there are a couple of ways he could be in earlier than a price of 40/1 would suggest. In an ideal world the later the better would be good because Somerset can be expensive with the ball at the end of the innings but if he opens we would have an insanely good value bet. I’ll pay to see if he can get a 30-40 which could well be enough to top score.
Tips
Back Under 12.5 sixes for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Back J.Sales Top Northamptonshire Batter for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Bet365
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