The China Open returns to the DP World Tour for the first time in five years this week when the last event of the Asian Swing part of the season takes place across four days which once again takes us to one of the best tracks in this part of the world.
Mikko Korhonen won this tournament five years ago but he isn’t around to make a defence of the title so the one thing we know about this last Asian Swing event is that we will have a different winner at the end of it.
Recent Winners
2019 – Mikko Korhonen
2018 – Alexander Bjork
2017 – Alex Levy
2016 – Haotong Li
2015 – Ashun Wu
2014 – Alex Levy
2013 – Brett Rumford
2012 – Branden Grace
2011 – Nicolas Colsaerts
2010 – Y E Yang
The Course
We are at the Genzon Golf Club once again this year which was the course where the tournament was held in 2019 although the name has now changed to the Hidden Grace Golf Club. We are in Shanzhen and this course has previously hosted the now defunct Shenzhen International as well as the China Open. It is a par 72 which can stretch to 7,145 yards so it isn’t exactly a monster but it can play quite soft at this time of year.
Generally the fairways here are quite wide so this is very much a test from the second shot and in. A combination of good iron play or a good short game is the way forward here. The last seven holes are quite exposed so the breeze can come into play and with the fairways being undulating good ball strikers are likely to come to the fore, as has been the case previously with the likes of Alex Levy and Mikko Korhonen winning this event on this track.
The Field
Although this is the last qualifying event on the Asian Swing ranking list for the DP World Tour which brings with it a lot of financial reward as well as qualifying for some key events later in the campaign, we only have two members of the top 100 in the world teeing it up here, with the majority beginning to hone their preparations for the USPGA Championship which is beginning to come up on the horizon. Those two are Jordan Smith and Sebastian Soderberg.
Soderberg currently heads up the Asian Swing points but he can still be caught at the top. Keita Nakajima sits in second place after his recent win at the Indian Open but he isn’t competing this week so Jesper Svensson is the main challenger to his Swedish counterpart. Kiradech Aphibarnrat was the last man into the field and he can also come out on top in the Asian Swing. Bernd Wiesberger, Haotong Li, Antoine Rozner and Joost Luiten are household names on the DP World Tour who tee it up this week.
Market Leaders
Tom McKibbin is the favourite to win the China Open this week. He has six top 20 finishes in his last seven starts so he is entitled to go well at 16/1. He is a big hitter who has already won on an open track so the wide open fairways will be much to his liking. He sits at 17 on the DP World Tour for greens hit in regulation which is another statistic that will serve him well this week so he does look like a worthy favourite.
Jordan Smith and Sebastian Soderberg come next in the betting at 18/1. Soderberg is certainly not short of motivation this week as he looks to fend off the chasing pack to win the Asian Swing part of the season. The Swede has finished second in his last two events so he is in decent form but not getting over the line is a concern. Smith is the highest ranked player in the field on the world rankings and was second in South Africa at the beginning of March but has only delivered middle of the road finishes since then.
Bernd Wiesberger and Yannik Paul are both 22/1 shots to take this tournament down. Wiesberger keeps on offering suggestions that he is going to deliver back at a level that he is far too good for but it hasn’t happened yet. He has won around here though which could be important. Paul has made great strides on the DP World Tour in recent times but he has slowed up a little bit with just one top 10 in his last five outings which is a bit of a concern for me.
Haotong Li is the only other player who is shorter than 30/1 to win the tournament this week. He is 25/1 to win his home event for a second time. He was fourth year the last time the event was staged and he was second in the Shenzhen International when that tournament was played on this course. Haotong is showing much more signs of life again in 2024 which is good to see after a couple of years where he had gone missing. It is 30/1 bar.
Main Bets
Haotong Li is going to be one of my main bets this week. He has a very good record on this course with a second and a fourth among his showings here and while he hasn’t been in amazing form in the lead up to the tournament, he is clearly playing a lot better now than he has done probably since he last won a couple of years ago. He will know the conditions really well being on home soil and he has won this tournament in the past so we know that he can handle the expectation of performing at home. We saw the Japanese inspired by the home crowds last week and I think Haotong could take the same inspiration to the title here.
My other main bet is the last man into the field in Kiradech Aphibarnrat. I saved this preview until the last minute in the hope that the Thai got into the field because he is a former winner around this course and having lost the majority of his DP World Tour playing rights for the season he has a big incentive to go well this week. Were he to win the tournament this week he would win the Asian Swing which will get him into the tournaments later in the season, the next Rolex Series event and the USPGA Championship so the Thai, who probably should have won in Singapore a few weeks ago looks a good bet to me. He is clearly back hitting the ball well again and is my second main bet.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a pair of South African players as outsiders this week with the first of those being the man who won in Bahrain earlier in the season in Dylan Frittelli. In fairness, he hasn’t done anything since he won that tournament but he showed in it that he is still good enough to be more than competitive at this level. He should have won the China Open in the past too having finished second on a different course where surely he would have won but for a poor final round. The week before that he finished fifth on this course at the Shenzhen International so he has a decent enough record in China. It was only a few months ago that he was winning at this level and so I think he is a dangerous outsider.
The other outsider I like is the man who won in Singapore last year in Ockie Strydom. I don’t think he is done with winning on the DP World Tour just yet. He probably should’ve got a lot closer to winning in Bahrain than his fourth place finish ended up being a few months ago but this track should fit him perfectly. He is better where there is freedom off the tee and the second shot is the most important one. We know he can handle Asian conditions through that win in Singapore and that top five in Bahrain not too long ago shows he is still swinging well. At a huge price I’m happy to see how well he goes this week.
Tips
Back H.Li to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back D.Frittelli to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back O.Strydom to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
