After three long days of golf we are finally down to the knockout stages of the WGC Dell Match Play with the last 16 and the quarter finals both being played on another demanding day of action at Austin Country Club on Saturday.
16 begin the day but only four men will progress through to Sunday and with a big tournament in its own right up for grabs as well as potential spots at The Masters and Ryder Cup points and much more we should get a competitive day. Time restrictions will deny us the chance to preview the quarter finals but we have two outrights still running so hopefully they’ll progress and give us some interest. We’ll cover the last 16 here.
Saturday’s last 16 matches are as follows:
Max Homa vs Mackenzie Hughes
Patrick Cantlay vs Sam Burns
Jason Day vs Matt Kuchar
Scottie Scheffler vs J.T. Poston
Xander Schauffele vs J.J. Spaun
Rory McIlroy vs Lucas Herbert
Kurt Kitayama vs Andrew Putnam
Cameron Young vs Billy Horschel
Saturday Preview
Everyone with a tee time on Saturday will know they are just four wins from glory and given that five of the top six seeds have made it into the knockout stages we should get some great action on Saturday. The pick of the matches in terms of the rankings is the one between Patrick Cantlay and Sam Burns but two former champions meet when Jason Day takes on Matt Kuchar. The last two winners have made it through with the world number one Scottie Scheffler having a date with J.T. Poston and the 2021 winner Billy Horschel going up against the player of the week in Cameron Young. Rory McIlroy and Max Homa will both be hoping to beat Lucas Herbert and Mackenzie Hughes respectively. The other matches sees Xander Schauffele taking on a J.J. Spaun who won all three of his group matches, while Bay Hill winner Kurt Kitayama meets Andrew Putnam. I’ve gone through the card and two bets take my fancy.
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Rory McIlroy vs Lucas Herbert
Match tees off at 13.30 GMT
The third to last match out onto the golf course on Saturday afternoon sees the FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy going up against a man who has shown good bouncebackability this week in the Australian player Lucas Herbert.
If you have watched the Sky coverage this week you could be forgiven for thinking that Rory McIlroy has birdied every hole and won every match 10&8. That isn’t the case and actually the statistics tell us that it is Herbert who has played the better golf of these two. The two key statistics around here are always strokes gained on approach and strokes gained putting. McIlroy has recorded -0.147 for the former and -1.079 for the latter. In contrast, Herbert’s numbers are +1.243 and +6.625. He is well ahead in both departments. McIlroy doesn’t have a significant length advantage over Herbert in terms of the fact he can get at holes Herbert can’t. The Australian might not be able to drive the greens on the shorter par fours but he can certainly get it within range of the green and let his short game do the work. The other number that might matter is Herbert has broken par on 21 holes this week to just 17 of McIlroy. McIlroy has only been tested once this week which was when Denny McCarthy shot six under against him but even then he bogeyed two key holes when he had the lead. His other two opponents were only one under which wasn’t getting it done. Herbert is scoring well. He has shot -7, -5 and -9 and only made two bogeys all week. If he keeps his level he is a huge price in this match.
Kurt Kitayama vs Andrew Putnam
Match tees off at 13.41 GMT
The second bet I like for the last 16 matches on Saturday afternoon comes in the penultimate match onto the golf course when the Arnold Palmer Invitational winner Kurt Kitayama takes on the experienced Andrew Putnam.
Kitayama had to come through a playoff to win his group but it was only because the players in his group went so well. Statistically Kitayama has really caught the eye this week. He has birdied or eagled 20 of the 51 holes he has played and has picked up 5.433 shots on approach and 4.123 with the putter. Contrast that to Putnam who in three rounds of golf has only broken par 14 times, is -2.631 strokes gained on approach and +1.067 on the greens. He is losing more than 6.5 shots into the greens on his opponent over the first three days and if that remains the case on Saturday then this is going to be a comfortable afternoon for Kitayama given the way he is putting. Kitayama’s caddie is no stranger to this place having caddied for Bryson DeChambeau here in the past and he just looks the better player of the two. Putnam has held tough this week but he was tied with Will Zalatoris after 13 holes only for him to fall apart from there on in and he trailed Ryan Fox after 13 holes only for him to stumble. Putnam is yet to shoot better than -3 this week whereas Kitayama has shot -4, -7 and -6 so the more he plays this course, bearing in mind this is his debut this week, the better he scores. If Putnam trails or is even only level with Kitayama heading into the final third of the round I expect the debutant to have too much power and class over the final holes and get the job done.
Tips
Back L.Herbert to beat R.McIlroy for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with Sky Bet
Back K.Kitayama to beat A.Putnam for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
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