The third Grand Slam of the year begins on Monday when SW19 opens its doors to the best tennis players in the world as Wimbledon takes place over two weeks of what should be excellent grass court action.
Novak Djokovic has won this tournament for the past four renewals and he will be back looking to win a fifth straight title and continue his pursuit of the calendar slam. A real field opposes him this year with the return of Russian and Belarusian players after their ban a year ago.
Recent Winners
2022 – Novak Djokovic
2021 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Novak Djokovic
2018 – Novak Djokovic
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Andy Murray
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Andy Murray
2012 – Roger Federer
The Format
We have the relatively new Grand Slam structure in place in this tournament which means that we have a tiebreak in the final set. Each match is the best of five sets and if it reaches 6-6 in the deciding set then the match will be settled with a first to 10 point tiebreak which we saw for the first time at the French Open last year. The 128 players have been inserted into the draw bracket and the tournament is a straight knockout with the champion being decided on the second Sunday.
Top Quarter
Carlos Alcaraz returned to number one in the world when he won at Queens a week or so ago and as such he is the number one seed this fortnight and placed right at the top of the draw. The Spaniard was beaten in the round of 16 here last year and will be looking to go a lot deeper this time around. He is seeded to meet Holger Rune in the quarter final. With neither man having much Wimbledon experience behind them the other six seeds might sense an opening that they can exploit here. They are Nicholas Jarry, Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur, Frances Tiafoe, Grigor Dimitrov and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
When you go through any Grand Slam draw there are household names among the unseeded section and that is no different here. The former finalist Matteo Berrettini is the standout one in the top quarter but the veteran Jeremy Chardy is another. Lorenzo Sonego was seeded at Eastbourne last week but couldn’t make the most of that while Botic van de Zandschulp is a Grand Slam quarter finalist and he is in this section with Ugo Humbert and Ilya Ivashka a couple of others to catch the eye.
Second Quarter
Daniil Medvedev doesn’t have the best record at SW19 either but he is back having been banned from competing a year ago. He is the leading seed in the second quarter where he could come up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarter final, although the Greek is another who doesn’t have a great record in this part of London so the other seeds in this section are definitely going to fancy a deep run. They are Ben Shelton, Sebastian Korda, Cameron Norrie, Eastbourne finalist Tommy Paul, Eastbourne winner Francisco Cerundolo and Hertogenbosch champion Tallon Griekspoor.
The former champion and potentially leading British hope Andy Murray is the big unseeded name in this part of the draw. Adrian Mannarino recently made the quarter finals at Queens and final in Mallorca last week and he is in this quarter as well as are former finalist Milos Raonic, Jiri Lehecka and the Mallorca champion Christopher Eubanks. Grand Slam champion Dominic Thiem, former Eastbourne finalist Maxime Cressy and Jiri Vesely are other dangers lurking in the draw.
Third Quarter
Casper Ruud is known primarily as a clay courter and doesn’t have many great results on grass but he in the top seed in the third quarter this fortnight so he has a chance to attempt to put that right here. He is due to meet the Italian player Jannik Sinner in the quarter final. Sinner looked to have Djokovic here he wanted him here last year but couldn’t put him away and he might well fancy his draw. The other seeded players are Denis Shapovalov, Roberto Bautista Agut, Borna Coric, Taylor Fritz, Yoshihito Nishioka and Dan Evans.
Once again some familiar names are in the draw without a seeding this fortnight. Diego Schwartzman is one such player in this part of the bracket while Miomir Kecmanovic would be another after his run to the Eastbourne quarter finals last week. Richard Gasquet is no stranger to the courts at SW19 and he is in this section too while Liam Broady had a half decent run on home soil last year and will want to emulate that here.
Bottom Quarter
This is the part of the draw in which Novak Djokovic will look to make a successful defence of his title from. He is the number two seed this fortnight so is seeded to not only come out of this quarter but make the final at the very least. Andrey Rublev is seeded to be his quarter final opponent but he hasn’t got much of a Wimbledon record to speak of. The other six seeds at the bottom section of the draw would have included Nick Kyrgios but he has pulled out on the eve of the event. Big serving Kazakh player Alexander Bublik won the warm-up event in Halle so he could be dangerous here. Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti, Hubert Hurkacz and Tomas Martin Etcheverry complete the seeds.
There are no shortage of solid names from the unseeded fraternity in this quarter of the draw too. The Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka jumps out as us but the likes of John Isner, David Goffin and Eastbourne semi-finalist Mackenzie McDonald will all be looking to have a decent run here. Jordan Thompson has had a decent grass court season while Brandon Nakashima went well here last year. Emil Ruusuvuori has the game to be good on grass too.
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Outright Betting
I don’t want to get massively involved in the outright betting this fortnight because I’m not sure that Novak Djokovic could have picked a better draw had he selected it by hand and I think he is going to take a lot of stopping in this tournament. I’ve never been a fan of betting a player at odds on in an event of this stature though and I’m not going to begin now so I’ll look for a bit of value but it will only be for a small punt given how likely a Djokovic win is.
I think the second quarter is the place to attack and I wonder if the win in Hertogenbosch win of Tallon Griekspoor was a freak or the continuation of a rise of someone in the game. The Dutch player is in the middle of a decent year where he is 23:11 in all events and 7:1 on grass. Griekspoor won in Pune much earlier in the year and reached the semi-finals in Rotterdam so he is certainly someone who can play and had his draws been a bit kinder he might have gone deeper in some other events with Djokovic, Tsitsipas, Alcaraz and Rublev twice beating him in tournaments. He is in the weakest part of the draw here and with confidence high his 300/1 quotes could be made to look bonkers if he can progress to the second week and the top half opens up.
Quarter Betting
As well as taking the 40/1 on Griekspoor to win the second quarter for the reasons highlighted above, I’ll also take a couple of other quarter bets. I can’t say I’m a massive Grigor Dimitrov fan but he plays pretty well on grass and looks to have as good a path to the quarter final as there is in this tournament. He might need to face Holger Rune in the last 16 but of the top eight seeds he could have drawn in that round the Dane would be high enough up on the list. Dimitrov has won Queens in the past and has been to the semi-finals here as well. In a wide open section should something happen to Carlos Alcaraz, who Dimitrov couldn’t face until the quarter final, 28/1 on the Bulgarian looks big.
Speaking of big, Roberto Bautista Agut looks a big price at 14/1 to come out on top in the third quarter. In 11 of the last 12 grass court seasons the Spaniard has a winning record on the surface, which you would probably not expect to be the case for a player from Spain. He is actually very comfortable on it and has already made the last four in Halle this year to further highlight how he likes grass. He has won a title on grass and lost in the final of Mallorca last year and was a semi-finalist here in 2019 when it took Djokovic four sets to beat him. In a quarter where Casper Ruud is a vulnerable top seed I don’t think the price of the Spaniard can be ignored.
Tips
Back T.Griekspoor to win Wimbledon (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Bet365 (1/2 1-2)
Back G.Dimitrov to win 1st Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Sky Bet
Back T.Griekspoor to win 2nd Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfred
Back R.Bautista Agut to win 3rd Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Unibet
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