The grass court season draws to a close over the next fortnight when the best the tennis world has to offer heads to London to compete for the Wimbledon title, the third Grand Slan of what is becoming an intriguing year on the men’s side.
Carlos Alcaraz kind of opened the door for a changing of the guard when he won this title last year and he’ll be out to keep hold of the crown but there are a number of players who head to SW19 believing they can claim the trophy.
Recent Winners
2023 – Carlos Alcaraz
2022 – Novak Djokovic
2021 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Novak Djokovic
2018 – Novak Djokovic
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Andy Murray
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Andy Murray
The Format
We have the relatively new Grand Slam structure in place in this tournament which means that we have a tiebreak in the final set. Each match is the best of five sets and if it reaches 6-6 in the deciding set then the match will be settled with a first to 10 point tiebreak which we saw for the first time at the French Open last year. The 128 players have been inserted into the draw bracket and the tournament is a straight knockout with the champion being decided on the second Sunday.
Top Quarter
The Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner is now the world number one and he is the top seed this fortnight and at the top of the bracket as a result of that. This isn’t a tournament where the defending champion is the number one seed. The Italian is seeded to face Daniil Medvedev in the quarter final but this is a loaded quarter and the six other seeds will be looking to stop that from happening. They are Zhizhen Zhang, Adrian Mannarino, Grigor Dimitrov, Ben Shelton, Nicolas Jarry and Tallon Griekspoor.
That means there are a lot of big servers in this section and they are added to by the star unseeded player in the top quarter in the former finalist Matteo Berrettini while Denis Shapovalov is another unseeded player in this section who can hold his serve at his best. Marton Fucsovics, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pablo Carreno Busta, Dusan Lajovic and Cristian Garin are experienced campaigners in this section while Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils will look to go deep for the veterans. Jan-Lennard Struff and Fabian Marozsan have had decent seasons.
Second Quarter
The second quarter of the draw is where Carlos Alcaraz will begin his title defence from. He is the number three seed and he is on a collision course with Casper Ruud in the quarter final, although the Norwegian has an ordinary grass court record. That will alert the other six seeds in this section who are Mariano Navone, Alexander Bublik, Queens winner Tommy Paul, Ugo Humbert, Sebastian Baez and Frances Tiafoe so this feels like an open quarter.
There are some competent unseeded players in this section with the Mallorca finalist Sebastian Ofner, Eastbourne semi-finalist Aleksandar Vukic, Matteo Arnaldi and Borna Coric all in here. Jordan Thompson looked good on his was to the Queens semi-final while Brandon Nakashima has some good history on the grass. The Eastbourne finalist Max Purcell, Lorenzo Sonego, Roberto Bautista Agut and Fabio Fognini are other household names who will be hoping for a big week.
Third Quarter
Alexander Zverev made the French Open final last month and he begins another quest for a major title from the third quarter. The number four seed is scheduled to meet Andrey Rublev in the quarter final should both reach that stage. The Stuttgart champion Jack Draper is one of the seeds looking to stop that from happening, as are Mallorca winner Alejandro Tabilo, Eastbourne champion Taylor Fritz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Seb Korda and Lorenzo Musetti.
There is a real strong British contingent from within the unseeded players in this quarter of the draw. Dan Evans is probably the best known of those but Cameron Norrie was a semi-finalist here a couple of years ago. Jan Choinski and Henry Searle are the other Brits. Marcos Giron has had some good results on grass this season and he is in this quarter while Rinky Hijikata and Yoshihito Nishioka have made semi-finals in the last couple of weeks. Kei Nishikori is a big name in this quarter albeit one with his best days being behind him.
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Bottom Quarter
There was plenty of conjecture over whether Novak Djokovic would take his place in the draw this fortnight. He is doing so and he is the number two seed and the main draw in the bottom quarter. If he reaches the last eight he is seeded to take on Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter final. Six seeds will be looking to stop that clash from happening with Francisco Cerundolo one of them along with Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, Holger Rune, Karen Khachanov and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
This will be an emotional quarter of the draw because it is the one from which Andy Murray will compete in the singles at Wimbledon for the final time if he is fit to take his place. Jacob Fearnley and Paul Jubb are a couple of other British players in this quarter while Christopher Eubanks went well on the grass last year. Billy Harris arrives here off the back of a run to the last four in Eastbourne while Lucas Pouille has qualified for a tournament where he is a former semi-finalist. Thanasi Kokkinakis and Tomas Machac are others to watch.
Outright Betting
Alex de Minaur has been in good form all season and he has already won in Hertogenbosch this season. He didn’t cover himself in glory at Queens but that was a couple of days after his win in the Netherlands so it is understandable that he wasn’t quite at his best there. His record in Grand Slams still leaves plenty to be desired but he reached the quarter final of the French Open last month which is a positive and the narrative that he is dating the British number one female Katie Boulter might see him get some local support should the Brits bomb out and need someone to rally behind. He has a decent game for grass as he showed that week in Holland and he is in the bottom quarter of the draw which could open right up if Djokovic breaks down. I’ll take him for a big run here.
Seb Korda is a frustrating player to follow but at around the 80/1 mark I can’t ignore him with the draw he has got this week. Korda lost out to de Minaur in the final in Hertogenbosch and then reached the semi-final at Queens so he has been going well enough on the grass and has a serve which can keep him competitive here. He has a brilliant draw too because the third seed looks by far the weakest with Alexander Zverev having never been past the fourth round here and Andrey Rublev, who only went past that stage for the first time here last year, the two main seeds and they look very vulnerable. The first seed Korda would run into is Stefanos Tsitsipas and there is nothing too strenuous in that and even Rublev in the fourth round isn’t too bad. I’m not a massive fan of having Korda carry my money but the draw dictates he must here.
Quarter Betting
I’m going to leave the top quarter alone this fortnight because it just looks an absolute minefield. I’m not massively keen to oppose Jannik Sinner in it anyway if I am honest but there are a lot of big servers in there who could all be dangerous, particularly were Matteo Berrettini to get rid of his Italian counterpart. There is nobody in it that I’m massively keen on though so I’ll stick to the second quarter where I like Tommy Paul.
Of course Carlos Alcaraz will be all the rage in this part of the draw and understandably so but he went out early at Queens and might just be a little undercooked on grass. There is also a suspicion that he already has an eye on the Olympics where he will be a part of that marquee pairing with Rafael Nadal in what is probably a dream come true for the young Spaniard so not hanging around on grass for too long might be no bad thing for this year only. There are doubts over his fitness this year as well so there is enough reason to take him on. Paul is the Queens champion and generally goes well on grass. He also has a fair record against Alcaraz should the two meet in the quarter final so at 7/1 he’s the value in the second quarter.
Tips
Back A.de Minaur to win Wimbledon (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with BetVictor (1/2 1-2)
Back S.Korda to win Wimbledon (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with BetVictor (1/2 1-2)
Back T.Paul to win 2nd Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 8.00 with BetVictor
