Two weeks ago the draw for the World Championship was being made. 32 men were in the draw with two tables in the Crucible Theatre as the action began. After 12 days of fierce competition we’ve lost 28 of the starters and we’re down to one table as we’ve reached the semi-final stage.
Many people think the tournament begins here with all eyes on the one table and the four men left knowing they are five days away from potential glory. You have done well if you’ve picked the last four line up as Alan McManus, Ding Junhui, Marco Fu and Mark Selby have survived the early rounds to book their spots in this round.
Wednesday recap
What threatened to be a tame Wednesday was anything but in the end as the quarter finals came to an exciting conclusion. The first game to finish on Wednesday lacked the drama and tension it was expected to have as Mark Selby saw off Kyren Wilson 13-8 with the highlight being the latter making a tournament high 143 break. He’ll hope that stands the test of the next five days to pocket a £10,000 bonus.
Marco Fu went into Wednesday with a healthy 7-1 lead over Barry Hawkins, a lead he quickly extended to 9-1 but whether he took his foot off the gas or Hawkins just let his cue arm go with nothing to lose I’m not sure but what transpired turned into one of the most fascinating quarter finals in a while.
Hawkins won five of the next six frames to go into the final session trailing just 10-6 and that was soon 10-9 as Hawkins sparked into life in a big way. Fu went on to make it 11-9 and 12-9 shortly after but Hawkins found his game and piled on the pressure. At 12-11, Hawkins was in the balls to set up a decider but missed on 60 and Fu produced a remarkable clearance to win an epic 13-11.
John Higgins had a 5-3 lead overnight against Alan McManus which he extended to 9-7 going into the final session. They shared four more frames for Higgins to lead 11-9 and you would think he was a certainty from there but his game left him at the wrong time and McManus saw that.
He levelled with a 52 break and then powered past his Scottish rival with a stunning century to go 12-11 up and held his nerve with a classy run of 60 to seal a famous win and put him into the last four for the first time in 23 years.
Alan McManus vs Ding Junhui
Two qualifiers meet in this opening semi-final although we all know Ding is a qualifier purely in name only not ability. This is actually an intriguing semi if I’m honest partly because it is hard to judge the form of Ding.
I say that because his last two opponents have basically not showed up and gifted him the chances he has needed to win but I can’t see Alan McManus doing that. I listened to McManus’ press conference after his win over Higgins and he’s absolutely buzzing. Usually I’d be concerned about the comedown from such a win but I don’t actually think he cares about that he’s just on the crest of a wave.
One thing that can easily go unnoticed in this semi-final is McManus’ scoring so far in the tournament. He’s won 36 frames and has 24 breaks of 50 or more which is impressive. That interests me because with the standard of McManus’ tactical game I don’t see Ding winning too many scrappy frames but with McManus scoring like he is will Ding win the number of open frames he needs to?
With that in mind I think this could be a great deal closer than the odds suggest it might be. I’m not going to back McManus going into the match but I’m certainly looking to get on his side if the chance arises when I’ve seen how this one looks like playing out.
Until then given McManus’ scoring in this tournament and Ding being one of the best scorers in the game the 50+ breaks line really interests me. It is at 18.5 which looks incredibly low for a best of 33 frame match. McManus just made 11 against Higgins alone. I would expect most frames Ding wins to be open so he’ll score and McManus is doing likewise so I’m going over there.
Marco Fu vs Mark Selby
On paper this looks the better of the two semi-finals and if both play the sort of stuff they can so then this could turn into a right old ding dong. Both know their way around the table and both can clear up when they get in so apart from Selby’s belief and his consistency these two are fairly evenly matched, certainly in style terms at least.
Both men have looked in good form at times in this tournament and both have struggled at other times as well and I’m sure over the four sessions of this match we will see the ups and downs of both which makes betting on the match quite difficult.
Ultimately I don’t see this being won easily. Both have the ability to grind and both have shown they can handle pressure and play well under it. While the scoreline could have a wider feel about it come the end in that it might not go to a deciding frame I’d be surprised if there isn’t plenty of mileage on Saturday night.
The frames line in this match is 28.5 and that looks quite low to me. That would need the match to be won 17-11 or easier and I don’t see that happening. I think when sessions are won they’ll be won 5-3. I don’t see any 6-2 or 7-1 sessions because their styles are too similar so I like over 28.5 in this one. 17-12 or closer either way is the most likely outcome.
Tips
WON – Back A.McManus vs D.Junhui – Over 18.5 50+ breaks for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power
Back it here:
WON – Back M.Fu vs M.Selby – Over 28.5 frames for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Coral
Back it here:
