For 32 men the next two days are massive events in their careers as the final round of qualifying for the World Championship takes place.
16 matches played across two sessions on both Tuesday and Wednesday will determine the identities of the men heading to the Crucible from Saturday to face the seeded players in the first round proper of the tournament. The stakes are no bigger than this.
Monday review
It was another up and down day for us betting wise on Monday as Zhou Yuelong saw off Fergal O’Brien in one of the three bets in the matches which started and finished on the day but we lost a deciding frame with Li Hang and Ali Carter won but didn’t do it quickly enough for us to benefit. Liam Highfield won the game held over from Sunday so we came out of Monday with a profit.
In the other matches on Monday there were huge wins for Ding Junhui, Dave Gilbert and Matthew Stevens while Liang Wenbo and Dominic Dale made it into the final qualifying round unscathed.
Tuesday morning
Eight matches begin on Tuesday morning and finish on Wednesday morning. All eyes will be on the main table where Ding Junhui takes on Nigel Bond. The World Championship without Ding will be a weird thing but Bond is largely freerolling at this stage of his career and the former finalist will be looking to cause a huge upset.
Ding is a massive favourite in that match, as you would expect, and that is entirely justified but you’d have to take him on a handicap to get any value out of backing him and I just don’t fancy that as much really, not in a round which is literally just about winning anyway.
The other matches in this session are Anthony Hamilton vs Robbie Williams, Robert Milkins vs Kurt Maflin, Alan McManus vs Jimmy Robertson, Thepchaiya Un-Nooh vs Anthony McGill, Liam Highfield vs Sam Baird, Jack Lisowski vs David Gilbert and Mitchell Mann vs Dechawat Poomjaeng.
There were a couple of bets I considered in this session. Jimmy Robertson and Thepchaiya Un-Nooh were players I thought about chancing but Alan McManus actually scored well really in the last round and McGill beat Un-Nooh 4-1 in the Welsh Open a couple of months ago so in the end I’ve decided to leave those alone.
I’m going with just the one in this session although we are effectively on Anthony Hamilton at 6/1 to beat Williams having backed him to qualify before the qualifiers began. That is a position I’m happy to be in.
I’m also going to take Kurt Maflin to beat Robert Milkins. I mentioned in the run up to these qualifiers that Milkins has been in shocking form and while beating a couple of lower ranked players will have built up a little bit of confidence I still think Maflin will be too good for him.
The Norwegian star has won their last three matches and a couple of them were when Milkins was playing his best snooker so I don’t think Maflin will have too much to fear in this match. So far in this qualifying campaign Maflin has rattled in a couple of centuries and three more breaks over 80 and if he maintains that scoring he should have too much for Milkins.
Tuesday evening
The later session on Tuesday begins at 5pm and the cast list is no weaker than in the morning that is for sure. I guess all eyes will be on Ali Carter to see if he can come past Dominic Dale and make it back to the Crucible. I think he will but he’s another who is plenty short enough when winning is the only focus.
The other matches beginning in this session are Kyren Wilson vs Matthew Stevens, Liang Wenbo vs Xiao Guodong, Zhou Yuelong vs Zhang Anda, Ken Doherty vs Ryan Day, Mark King vs Michael Holt, Mike Dunn vs Graeme Dott and Ian Burns vs Peter Ebdon.
This is another session where the prices are about right and they look close enough on paper that the handicaps don’t look all that attractive but the beauty of all of these matches is that we can assess their positions at half way and act and hopefully have the potential to bet accordingly. The one thing we are guaranteed in this round is drama and stacks of it.
Once again I’m setting out with one bet here. Mark King has been in good form since the turn of the year and I think he can use that to his advantage to see off Michael Holt, who apart from beating Ronnie O’Sullivan in the World Grand Prix, hasn’t done anything of note in the same period apart from in the Championship League which I don’t really count.
King has made the quarter finals of the China Open, where he dumped out Ali Carter and Shaun Murphy along the way, and the same stage of the last European Tour event where he only lost in a deciding frame to Andrew Higginson. In the European Tour tournament before that one John Higgins and Ricky Walden were among his victims in another solid run.
King has been performing the better of these two throughout the season and I feel he can use that positivity to come past Holt. This has all the makings of a tight match but the man with the more confidence and belief tends to come through them and that is King for me.
Tips
Back K.Maflin to beat R.Milkins for a 4/10 stake at 2.50 with Ladbrokes
Back him here:
Back M.King to beat M.Holt for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfred
Back him here:
