The World Grand Prix final takes place on Sunday evening when Nathan Aspinall meets Michael van Gerwen for the title inside the Morningside Arena on what is likely to be a keenly fought encounter for a huge crown.
Van Gerwen knows all about winning this title having done it on five previous occasions. Aspinall has won TV titles but he has never got his hands on this one, however having qualified for the Grand Slam courtesy of making the final he can give this everything he’s got.
Nathan Aspinall
Going into the week we knew that Nathan Aspinall had been in good form on the floor this year so the question was whether he could transfer those displays onto the stage. The other question mark was whether his arm would stand up to a week of converted efforts without too much in the way of a break, certainly the longer the week has gone on. He has answered both questions in the affirmative and now has a free shot at the title.
A win for Aspinall will move him back into the top eight in the world rankings and with the World Championship around the corner and him currently the number one seed in the Players Championship Finals, this could be a big few months for ‘The Asp’. Aspinall will probably need to raise his overall level here, not least on the starting double, but we saw in the semi-final that he is much better as an underdog so that can’t be ruled out.
Michael van Gerwen
Michael van Gerwen has already won the Premier League and World Matchplay titles this season and despite having to miss the World Cup because of an injury he is through to another final of a Sky major. We probably didn’t see van Gerwen at his very best in the first two of those tournaments but the longer this one has gone on we have certainly seen the sort of form which previously carried him to five of titles in the past.
Van Gerwen might have dropped off in the number of 180s the longer the week has gone on but his 140 scores, starting doubles and most importantly of all his finishing doubles have all improved. He averaged nearly a ton in the quarter final win and was into the 90s in his semi-final demolition of Peter Wright and in a double start format those are incredible numbers. You sense MVG isn’t going to slack off too much here and if he is close to the form of the two previous rounds he will take a lot of beating.
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Head-to-head
These two men have met on 15 previous occasions and as you would expect Michael van Gerwen has had the better of their past meetings. He has nine wins to the five of Aspinall and there has been a draw as well. Van Gerwen won their only prior meeting in 2022 which was in the quarter final of the World Matchplay where the Dutchman won 16-14. This will be their sixth televised meeting. That win in Blackpool took MVG 6-2 in front with the Premier League draw. This will be the first time the pair have met in a televised final but going into it history is with van Gerwen.
Betting
Given what we have seen this week we shouldn’t really expect anything but a win for Michael van Gerwen, especially with history also suggesting that, however if you are going to get any significant return from backing him then you are probably going to need to take him on a handicap but the odds compilers are not daft and the line is 2.5 sets which is significant because if MVG throws second he’ll need to win two sets on the Nathan Aspinall throw without reply to cover it which becomes a tougher ask.
With that in mind, I’ll stick with the bet which cashed for us on Saturday evening which is the 180s for Aspinall. He hit seven of them in seven sets against Gerwyn Price and you would imagine he’ll be good for a couple of sets here at the very least so we only need him to match that performance to cover the 6.5 180 line here. He has nothing to lose in this final and can just relentlessly attack the 60. If this is closer than 5-2, which it could easily be, there should be oceans of time to get seven 180s from Aspinall but one per set in a 5-2 match should be well within his range.
Tips
Back N.Aspinall – Over 6.5 180s for a 3/10 stake at 1.87 with BetVictor
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