We have another night in the Premier League Darts season on Thursday with the action leaving the UK once again and heading to Rotterdam for Week 12 of the lucrative invitational event with points very much on the agenda for the eight players involved.
Michael van Gerwen will very much be the man the crowds will be right behind and he goes into the night off the back of a win last week. That still only leaves him in third place though so he’ll know he needs to keep winning.
Michael Smith vs Luke Littler
We open the night with a good looking match as the league leader Luke Littler looks to continue to plough on at the top of the table when he takes on the man one outside the top four in the form of Michael Smith.
Needless to say, things are getting a bit serious for Smith with just five weeks including this one for him to get enough points to make it into the top four and book his spot at the o2 next month. Littler will be at the o2 it is just what position he goes there in and a win here would go further to him securing the top spot, although three men have been so dominant in this campaign that such a position might not be determined until later in the season. The key thing about this match is that they have met four times in the Premier League so far and Smith has won three of them so he clearly raises his game to take on Littler, who doesn’t seem to enjoy playing the former world champion. I’m expecting to see a high quality contest here where the value is definitely on Smith to win but I also can’t resist a bigger punt on the Smith average to be over 96.5 when this one ends. Three of those four previous meetings between the two were in the quarter final and Smith covered this line on each occasion. He has also averaged 99.68 or more in his last four quarter finals in this event so that line looks low. I mention it every week but Littler’s scoring power means an opponent’s average is often inflated against him and four of the last five quarter finals have seen his opponent cover this target. I use quarter finals statistics only because once we get beyond them things like recovery time and toughness of the first game impact performance. None of that will impact here so I’ll back Smith to cover his 3 dart average line and win the match in separate bets.
Rob Cross vs Gerwyn Price
Two men who are in desperate need of not just winning the second quarter final but potentially going on to win the night meet in game two when Rob Cross faces Gerwyn Price in a game which will have a huge impact on the chances of qualifying for the loser.
These two go into the night in sixth and seventh spot in the table and that in itself tells us how they have struggled in this campaign. Price has won just three matches in the last eight weeks of this competition, and two of those came in Manchester a couple of weeks ago, while Cross has lost his last five Premier League matches. Both men now trail fourth spot by seven and eight points so unless they get winning nights soon they won’t be at the o2. There is a part of me that thinks that Cross could be a bit of value but Price looked in decent nick at the European Tour event at the weekend so this probably isn’t one to get too involved in.
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Peter Wright vs Nathan Aspinall
The penultimate quarter final in Rotterdam sees the man who is now playing purely for pride in the form of Peter Wright, going up against the player who has a target on his back as he sits in fourth spot in the shape of Nathan Aspinall.
Aspinall has probably exceeded expectations in this tournament which sounds strange given that he is the World Matchplay champion and he is in position where he controls his own destiny and will fight off the majority of the chasing pack for another week at least if he wins this quarter final. Wright has won two matches in 11 weeks of this competition so even with five weeks out there is only a miraculous scenario whereby he qualifies for the o2 so he can relax a little bit and potentially play the role of the spoiler from here on in. That could make Wright dangerous so I’m probably done with opposing him but I don’t think I want to be against Aspinall right now either so I’ll sit this match out.
Michael van Gerwen vs Luke Humphries
We save the best for last in terms of the quarter finals in Week 12 of the competition with the home star Michael van Gerwen looking to back up his win last week when he faces the world champion Luke Humphries in a pearler of a contest.
Surprisingly given that both men are in the top three in the table, this is just the third time they will meet in this Premier League campaign, with each player having a win from the previous two to their name. Where there could be some significance is van Gerwen gave himself the weekend off to prepare for this night while Humphries went to Germany and was beaten by Stephen Bunting fairly early on. The other factor that could be in play here is the crowd. They will get right behind van Gerwen here and if you think back to the first couple of weeks in this tournament, Humphries was clearly impacted by the crowd playing up and that could go against him here too. Behind closed doors you’d back Humphries here but not by much so the freshness and crowd factors could give MVG the edge and at odds against that might be the difference.
Night 12 Betting
As ever there is a market up for who will win the night and here we have a nicely balanced draw. I say that despite three of the top four in the table being in the bottom half of the draw but in my eyes the top four in this competition are Luke Littler, Luke Humphries, Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith and with that in mind it is balanced as two are in the top half and two are in the bottom half. I do think the bottom half is the place to be because Gerwyn Price could be the big spoiler on the evening.
In that bottom half you have Van Gerwen, Humphries, Peter Wright and Nathan Aspinall so I’ve got to think that whoever wins that last quarter final will go through to the final. I find it interesting that van Gerwen was the only player not to compete in the European Tour event at the weekend. That tells me he is clearly targeting winning in front of his home fans here and with the crowd behind him he could be very tough to beat. Only once this season has van Gerwen won his quarter final and not won the night so I think the 11/2 on him to come out on top is just too big.
Tips
Back M.Smith to beat L.Littler for a 2/10 stake at 2.90 with Coral
Back M.Smith – Over 96.5 3 dart average vs L.Littler for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Betway
Back M.van Gerwen to beat L.Humphries for a 3/10 stake at 2.40 with Betfred
Back M.van Gerwen to win Night 12 for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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