The beauty of links golf is back in the spotlight this week as 168 of the world’s best golfers head to Scotland for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Not only do the golfers head there but 168 amateurs from sport, stage and screen will be involved too.
After the drama, the quality and the excitement of the Ryder Cup last week this is an excellent tournament to get back down to normality with.
Recent Winners
2015 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2014 – Oliver Wilson
2013 – David Howell
2012 – Branden Grace
2011 – Michael Hoey
2010 – Martin Kaymer
2009 – Simon Dyson
2008 – Robert Karlsson
2007 – Nick Dougherty
2006 – Padraig Harrington
The Format
There are two tournaments going on this week. The professional tournament and a pro-am. In the first three rounds each professional has an amateur partner and they play one of the three courses each day until they have played all three. The cut in both the professional event and the pro-am comes on Saturday evening before everyone who makes either cut heads to St Andrews for the final 18 holes on Sunday where both winners are determined.
The Courses
Three courses are in use as ever this week. They are Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews. Kingsbarns is widely acknowledged as the easier of the three courses and generally if you are going to contend this is the one that needs to be taken care of. The course is a par 72, as they all are, and it measures 7,227 yards.
Carnoustie is historically the toughest of the three courses and regularly plays over par in this competition. The course measures 7,345 yards and contains a number of monstrous par 4s so avoiding damage around here is the key to success.
St Andrews hosts the players for two rounds and will conclude the tournament. This is a mixed bag. There are birdie chances here and then there are tougher holes like the penultimate hole famously known as the road hole. Four is always a good score on that hole. This course measures 7,307 yards.
With this being an event for the amateurs as well as the professionals we can expect pin positions and course setups to be on the easier side which means we are looking for a lot of low scoring to be in the mix.
The Field
This is one of the strongest fields of the year. Six members of Europe’s Ryder Cup team plus their beaten captain tee it up this week with Thomas Pieters, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Matt Fitzpatrick, Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood and Danny Willett all in action.
Some other star studded names grace the field this week too in former champion Branden Grace, former Open champion Louis Oosthuizen as well as recent European Masters and KLM Open winners Alex Noren and Joost Luiten. Star names are everywhere you look.
Market Leaders
Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuizen and Thomas Pieters are the 18/1 co-favourites to win this week. The South African pair are worthy favourites particularly Grace who has won this before although I’m not convinced he is on top form at the minute while it is clear to see Oosthuizen loves St Andrews having won the 2010 Open there and lost a playoff in the 2015 renewal.
Thomas Pieters is less appealing. That has nothing to do with his golf game which is of the very highest class as we saw last week but I’m not keen on anyone who was involved in the Ryder Cup. Pieters played five rounds in less than three days out there with the emotional highs and lows that winning and losing game him and then he has had to fly back to here with the comedown of crowds in the 60,000s to potentially crowds of 60 on some holes here. It won’t be easy for him to back up his fine play.
Bernd Wiesberger is next in the betting at 20/1 with European Ryder Cup stars Martin Kaymer and Danny Willett alongside Alex Noren at 22/1. I’ve covered my thoughts on the Ryder Cup duo above. Wiesberger and Noren are in great form and can’t be ruled out. It is 25/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
I’m taking two main bets this week and even though this field is a stellar one I see value in both men and indeed they look fairly obvious picks but with doubts over all the Ryder Cup players I’m happy to take them.
The first of those is a man who has won on tour twice this season already and indeed was only one match from a third win. That is Alex Noren. He showed he can play links golf both in winning the Scottish Open and in finishing runner up in the Paul Lawrie Matchplay. His win in the European Masters in Switzerland showed he can hold of top level fields too so Noren ticks all the boxes.
Injuries have kept Noren away from this tournament since 2013 but he was third here in 2012 so this course rotation isn’t against him and the form he has shown over the last three months he is a leading contender in my eyes.
Tommy Fleetwood might not have won this season but he has really shown some improved form in recent weeks with four top 20 finishes in his last five outings. In five entries in this tournament he has been in the top five three times and his win on the European Tour came in Scotland so he’ll be feeling good about his chances.
I always think pro-ams need certain types of character to embrace the nature of the tournament and Fleetwood most certainly has that. That can give him a leg up on the field as can his ball striking and if the putts find the hole he won’t be far away.
Outsiders
I’m going to go with a batch of outsiders this week too as this is the only event I am focusing on. I’m after players who have gone well in the links tournaments on tour and who have shown a bit of form in recent times.
Tyrell Hatton ticks all boxes as far as that is concerned. He was second in the Scottish Open earlier in the season and the week after was in a tie for fifth at The Open. To further highlight his links credentials he was fourth in that crazy Irish Open last year when conditions turned brutal so he can clearly play links golf. His form has tailed off since the USPGA but an extended break had a lot to do with that but he’s had a couple of events to blow the cobwebs away and I’m expecting a big week here.
Robert Karlsson is a former winner of this tournament so we know that he can play links golf. We also saw that in the Paul Lawrie Matchplay last season. He comes in here off the back of a third placed finish in Germany a couple of weeks ago to further confirm from the last couple of months that he is hitting a good patch again and at 60/1 he’s a good bet here.
Anthony Wall highlighted his links credentials when he landed the Paul Lawrie Matchplay a couple of months ago and I remember back at The Open in 2015 he was right in the deep end heading into the final round but couldn’t quite get over the line. He has been struggling with a bad back in recent times but if that holds up he’s shown the links credentials to be included in any staking plan.
Callum Shinkwin belts the ball a million miles and that can be advantageous around these courses as he can clear many of the nasty fairway traps. He showed that was a successful method when he finished in the top 10 of the Scottish Open earlier in the season. There’s usually a long shot gets in the mix unexpectedly in this tournament but at least with links form on his side Shinkwin has that going for him. I’m happy to pay to see how close he goes here.
Tips
Back A.Noren to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Fleetwood to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Karlsson to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Shinkwin to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Paddy Power
Back them here:
WON – Back T.Hatton to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back A.Wall to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
