The penultimate tournament of the European Tour season takes place this week and many of the top players in Europe head to South Africa for the Nedbank Golf Challenge in Sun City. This is a tournament which used to be an elite invitational event but it has been changed to a full ranking event now.
The Race to Dubai title is very much coming to the boil now ahead of the season finale next week so those contending for that event will be looking to land a significant cheque to make it easier for themselves in Dubai next week.
Recent Winners
2015 – Marc Leishman
2014 – Danny Willett
2013 – Thomas Bjorn
2012 – Martin Kaymer
2011 – Lee Westwood
2010 – Lee Westwood
2009 – Robert Allenby
2008 – Henrik Stenson
2007 – Trevor Immelman
2006 – Jim Furyk
The Course
One of the best things about this tournament and the reason it attracts such good fields every year is the golf course. The Gary Player Country Club in Sun City remains the host of this event. The course in numerical terms is something of a beast as a par 72 which measures no fewer than 7,831 yards. In reality with the humidity and atmosphere it doesn’t play that long.
The course is quite narrow off the tee and recent history suggests that finding the smaller greens is the key to this tournament. Most people tend to fare well in the putting stats which suggests that when found the greens are fairly easy to deal with so this is a test of the long game.
The Field
72 men tee it up this week from a whole range of different countries. We have two current major champions in the field in the form of Henrik Stenson and Danny Willett while six more members of Europe’s Ryder Cup team tee it up.
Three time winner on tour this year Alex Noren bulks up the field as do a strong South African contingent which is headed by Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen. Recent Dunhill Links winner Tyrrell Hatton is in the field too as is last week’s champion Thorbjorn Olesen.
Market Leaders
The market has Henrik Stenson as a massive favourite this week. The Swede is a 7/2 shot to land the title but he’s plenty short enough for a man who has been struggling with injuries and who is about to embark on four days on an enormous course. That said he is something of a course specialist so his position in the market is justified even if he is a touch short.
Charl Schwartzel is the 18/1 second favourite this week. I never like to back him myself when he is well fancied because to me he often flatters to deceive but I’m sure there are those who are fans of his who will fancy him.
Alex Noren is a 20/1 chance which on the form of the last three months certainly can’t be argued with although this track might not suit his strengths. That can’t be said of Ross Fisher, a former runner up here who is well suited to the course.
Former champion Martin Kaymer has been knocking the door down for another win for a while and he is 22/1 to win this week but I think this tournament’s dynamic has changed since he won. It is 25/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
I’m taking two main bets this week with the first of those being a man who could catapult himself right into the overall Race to Dubai contention with a win this week in Rafa Cabrera Bello. The Spaniard should be very well suited to this track with his excellent driving ability off the tee and the number of greens he finds in regulation.
Only two men in the field this week rank higher than Cabrera Bello in greens in regulation and with the ability to get it out there off the tee a positive and a short game which we’ve seen all season is improving beyond all credit I think the Spaniard has to be a leading player.
Another man who I like this week is Matthew Fitzpatrick. I’ve mentioned before how he comes into the reckoning whenever there is a need for tee to green proficiency and few expose the art better than the Sheffield man. I took Fitzpatrick in this tournament 12 months ago when a lack of course experience caught him out but I’m happy to play again.
Fitzy is 11th in greens in regulation on the European Tour this season and we know he drives the ball well. His putting has let him down a little bit this year but these greens aren’t as demanding as some so that is less of a concern to me. All things considered Fitzpatrick’s chance this week is much stronger than his odds suggest.
Outsiders
I’ll throw some money at a couple of long hitters who are overpriced to go well this week. For all the course doesn’t play as long as its yardage there is a reward for those who can get it out there and Scott Hend should be one who can do just that.
We know the Australian is streaky but when he can let himself go off the tee and go on the attack after that he tends to score well. In the KLM Open recently he was second in the field in GIRs and those greens are similarly sized to these so that is a positive. At 80/1 I’ll pay to see if he can put four decent rounds together.
Another man who belts it miles and in turn finds plenty of greens in the right number is Nicolas Colsaerts and I fancy the Belgian for a decent week. Colsaerts often bases himself in Mauritius in the off season so I’m sure he would have sampled South African conditions a fair few times and ranking 12th in GIR on the Tour this year is a positive. We all know the Belgian struggles on the greens but with these greens playing easier than many on the Tour his weakness may not be quite so exposed. He’s worthy of a punt this week.
Tips
Back R.Cabrera Bello to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Hend to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back N.Colsaerts to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2016
