One of the biggest days of the year on the European Tour is the final day of the BMW PGA Championship and that takes place at Wentworth on Sunday. With one round to go in the tournament there are a large number of players in with a chance of lifting the big prize so we are set for a wonderful finale.
Saturday Recap
It really hasn’t been my week on the betting front in this tournament as three more match bets lost on Saturday despite two of them making good early starts. Hopefully we can claim something back to show for the week on Sunday.
Andrew Dodt is the man with the bullseye on his back heading into the final round as it is he who holds a one shot lead on eight under par, a shot ahead of Branden Grace who is now the favourite to win the tournament. Lee Westwood and Francesco Molinari sit three off the lead on five under with a group of players on four under which includes Henrik Stenson and Shane Lowry.
Another large group sit five back on three under par and hoping to take advantage of any slip ups ahead of them. Some of Europe’s best are in there including Ross Fisher, Tyrrell Hatton and Andrew Johnston along with Kiradech Aphibarnrat.
Sunday 2 balls
I’ve not been able to get anything right this week so I’m not going to go too mad on the final day but there is one two ball which I simply can’t ignore which will hopefully get us something back for the week.
Maximillian Kieffer vs Graeme Storm
Match tees off at 12.10 BST
These two go into the final round in that group that is on three under par so both will feel a decent finale will give them a chance of the big prize and I expect the Englishman to make the forward move here.
Graeme Storm goes into the week with all of his playing rights secured after his win earlier in the season and that can make a huge difference going into a Sunday. This is a big day for the German but in truth apart from a five hole spree when the course was receptive on Friday, Kieffer looks to be in a false position to me.
Storm isn’t. He stats well on almost everything that is important around here. He has been excellent from tee to green and if he can just hole a couple of putts on Sunday he should be too good for a potentially wayward and definitely under pressure German.
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Outright
The market suggests the winner is going to come from the final group but I’m not convinced that is going to be the case. Since the first changes were made to this course only one of the four winners have come from the final group and there are certainly doubts over whether Dodt can survive in this company if not Grace.
I’m not suggesting that Grace will crack here because he is a regular winner but he hasn’t won for a year so closing it out isn’t a certainty. Whoever wins this thing on Sunday I think they will have had to show a lot of patience in what are going to be potentially tough conditions.
That could play into the hands of Lee Westwood. Westwood heads into Sunday feeling good about life having birdied the final three holes on Saturday and we know he has all the patience in the world. His experience of playing this course in contention on a Sunday should come into play too and if he can stay solid through the tough first three holes he could be the man to take advantage and steal the title away from the front two.
Tips
WON – Back G.Storm to beat M.Kieffer for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
Back L.Westwood to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
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