We have had three compelling days of racing so far amidst the picturesque setting of Cleeve Hill and now we are set for the biggest day of the Cheltenham Festival on Friday. Along with the headline race of the meeting – the Gold Cup – which we’ve previewed separately, there are some cracking races on the card which we hope to land a few winners in to finish the Festival on a high. Here are our thoughts on the support card to the Gold Cup.
1.30: Triumph Hurdle
The Triumph is normally a race for fancied horses and I’ll stick with that theme and focus on the top 4 in the market, especially as 11 of the last 12 winners had started at 10/1 or less. Defi Du Seuil is the favourite having won all 5 of his starts over hurdles but I have ground concerns and am not totally convinced he’s beat anything. In a rough race, he’s a horse I want to take on at the 9/4 available.
Charli Parcs is next in market lists but fell last time out and for a juvenile, that is not a good sign. He looked impressive in winning his first 2 starts and his fall came after coming under pressure for the first time in his career. Again, he’s not for me and I think the best of the English challengers might just be Alan King’s Master Blueeyes who Charli Parcs has already beaten. He’s improved all season and his win last time out was impressive on the best ground he’s faced.
However, Ireland has been responsible for 3 of the last 4 winners and landed a 1-2-3-4 12 months ago so that bodes well for the chances of our selection, Mega Fortune. Noises coming out of Ireland suggest he should win this so I was amazed to see 10/1 being offered. The concerns seem to centre all around the ground but I’m not sure I buy this as an excuse. To me, this horse looks like a stayer in the making and I think the soft ground just helps to bring out his stamina. Stamina is a big requirement in this with a fast pace and a stiff track making it hard for some of these youngsters to last home. He won his 2nd race over hurdles on good ground and, although his best performance came on soft, it’s not enough to put me off. He has a tendency to take a keen hold but is always noted as staying on all the way to the line. Again, the conditions of this race therefore look ideal and I’ll be very surprised if he’s not in the shake up coming over the last.
Tips
PLACED – Back Mega Fortune (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 11.00 BetVictor (⅕ odds 1-3 BOG)
Back him here:
1.30: Supreme Novices Hurdle – Bookies Offers
SKYBET
ALTERNATIVELY YOU CAN BACK MEGA FORTUNE TO WIN THE RACE WITH SKYBET AND GET YOUR MONEY BACK AS A FREE BET IF IT DOESN’T WIN – UP TO £20!!
CLICK THE BANNER BELOW TO BET
2.10: County Hurdle
A 26 runner cavalry charge looks the toughest of all races to solve so you need an angle. 5 year olds have an excellent record in this race and it’s those improving handicappers that should be the focus of any bets. There are 6 runners that fit the age criteria and it’s from those 6 that our 2 bets come. 9 of the 17 winners have been 5 year olds and, of those 9 winners, none have carried more than 10st13lbs to victory. This further reduces the field by 2.
The first selection is bottom weight from last year’s winning stable, that of Dan Skelton. The horse in question is Mohaayed and he gets in with a featherweight of 10st2lbs having run just 3 times over hurdles. He started off finishing 2nd to useful yardstick Elgin before a decent run behind the Neptune hotpot Neon Wolf. He then stepped up to win a novice hurdle at Taunton in tanking fashion and I’m pretty sure the better ground and bigger field with a fast pace guaranteed enhances his chances. With bundles of improvement left in him, he has a decent chance at 20/1.
Crievehill is another similar type having only raced 4 times over sticks. He, too, finished behind Neon Wolf in that Haydock race when a place in front of Mohaayed. It was thought by his trainer that a stiffer track will be in his favour so the switch to Cheltenham is a plus. The big unknown is the going having raced only on easy ground so far but the price of 33/1 is big enough to risk he handles it well enough. Nigel Twiston Davies put a claimer on top to take off 3lbs and that could be significant in a tight handicap. He looks a very big price and cannot be ignored at 33s.
Tips
Back Mohaayed (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Paddy Power (⅕ odds 1-6 BOG)
Back Crievehill (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 Paddy Power (⅕ odds 1-6 BOG)
Back them here:
5.30: Grand Annual
The last race of the meeting and here’s hoping we can sign off with a winner. 6 of the last 7 winners have started at odds of 16/1 or bigger so that’s where I’m heading to find my bets here.
The first selection is the Irish trained Solita, who is the only runner at the Festival for trainer Paul Nolan. She’s a definite spring horse who will love the faster going and the return to handicap company after being beaten into 2nd in a Listed Chase last time. She has been racing over hurdles for much of the season and that can be a pointer in this as the trainer looks to protect her handicap mark. She remains lightly raced over fences with 2 wins from just 5 races and is open to plenty of improvement in what is traditionally a tight looking handicap. She looks overpriced to me and I can’t believe her trainer would bring her over for this if she didn’t stand a solid chance. 33/1 is too big.
The other horse I fancy is Venetia Williams’ Calipto who is having her first run of the season. Admittedly it will be a monumental effort to land this after almost a year off but if any trainer is capable of that, it’s Venetia. She has some very interesting form in that she was 4th in the Triumph Hurdle of 2014 and then 3rd in the 2015 running of the Betfair Hurdle. She has also finished not far behind Garde La Victoire and Tea For Two in a couple of novice chases so that’s very decent form indeed. In addition, she has a very good record when fresh so I think this one could be the one to spring a final race surprise.
Tips
Back Solita (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 William Hill (¼ odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
Back Calipto (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 Boylesports (¼ odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
