Saturday 24th June
The 5th and final day of an excellent Royal Ascot and, arguably, we have the best day’s racing today. The Wolferton, Hardwicke, Diamond Jubilee and Wokingham all look to be terrific races and they are betting opportunities galore.
2.30 Chesham Stakes
We start off with the 7 furlong race for 2 year olds and this looks a very tricky way to start Day 5. September, from the Aiden O’Brien yard, is the hot favourite off the back of a 5 length maiden win just over 2 weeks ago. On that run, added to the fact she’s O’Brien’s only successful 2 year old debutant this year, she looks hard to beat but there are challengers aplenty.
Masar is Godolphin’s big hope and, at longer prices, I like Hey Gaman and Learn By Heart. However, it really is a lottery beyond the favourite and, with plenty of betting chances today, I’ll watch with interest instead.
3.05 Wolferton Handicap
A competitive renewal of the Wolferton and it could be that the race will revolve around the 2 progressive 4 year olds heading the market. Khairaat could hardly have been more impressive on his rise through the ranks but a 13lb hike in the weights, alongside stronger opposition and a very different track to his win at Chester, make this a tougher challenge. I would, therefore, have liked a bigger price.
Kidmenever was running well at Meydan earlier this year but doesn’t look to be ahead of the handicapper and hasn’t been seen out for 4 months so again doesn’t appeal as being the best value. Central Square and Pacify are not ignored but I’m siding with 2 at bigger prices.
Elbereth is the first of my selections. She has a tough draw but we saw yesterday with Rare Rhythm that a wide berth isn’t the disadvantage it could be on the round course. This season, she opened up with a win at Dundalk before finishing 4th on All Weather Championships Day at Lingfield when trying to out battle Convey took its toll inside the distance.
Her form then took a marked upturn when beating everything bar Somehow in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes. She was readily outpointed by the winner but it was enough for her trainer to send her to the Coronation Cup at Epsom where she finished 4th behind Wednesday’s Prince Of Wales victor, Highland Reel. She was at least 6lb in the handicap behind every one of the 6 horses she beat that day including 120-rated Journey and 119-rated Idaho. Elbereth’s mark remains unchanged at 107 and she gets in here with every chance, considering she has her favoured fast ground and ran very well the only other time she’s been to Ascot.
Our 2nd horse, Restorer, requires a little more imagination. She hails from a lesser yard in good nick and his jockey has already had one big handicap win here this week. He has been running well in Listed races and was 3rd here 2 starts ago at a monster price of 40/1. Last time out, he faced an impossible task at the weights and despite finishing last of 5, he wasn’t disgraced. The step back in trip should suit, the return to Ascot is a plus especially as he’ll be staying on as well as any late on and he should be seen in better light returning to handicap company.
Back Elbereth (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 BetVictor BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
Bet here:
Back Restorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 29.00 Paddy Power BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
Bet here:
3.40 Hardwicke Stakes
Dartmouth won this last year and is 2/1 to repeat the feat. He’s not easily ignored but this is too strong a race for me to be taking such a price so I’ll look further down the field in search of something to take him on with. Some of the opposition need the rain to come but at a decent price, Dal Harraild has a chance albeit he probably doesn’t possess much of a turn of foot. Muntahaa was on the radar but for a poor run behind Dartmouth last time out; the soft ground might be an excuse.
At another big price, Dartmouth’s stable Across The Stars is the one for me. He’s only been since once this season, in the Aston Park, finishing 5th of 6 after pulling too hard and struggling to get home on the genuinely soft ground. He will have come on for that run and a faster pace and better ground will be in his favour. He’s only been to Ascot once and won the King Edward VII 12 months ago so that’s a good pointer. Racing keenly has been a factor throughout his short career but he has a top jockey aboard today and if the fast pace comes and he settles early, I fancy him to outrun big odds.
Back Across The Stars (e/w) in the ‘w/o Dartmouth market’ for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Paddy Power (⅕ odds 1-3)
Bet here:
4.20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes
A super race in store and I can’t really find a betting angle. At one point or another, I fancied the each way chances of Librisa Breeze, The Right Man and Aclaim but I’ll sit this out hoping I haven’t made a mistake by keeping my money in my pocket.
5.00 Wokingham Stakes Handicap
31 handicapper’s over the straight 6 furlongs at Royal Ascot. Does it get any better?
There is no easy answer here but my strategy is straightforward; I want a horse drawn close to the rail that has run well at Ascot before and is in decent form. This leads me to taking one from either side of the track to cover any bias.
Of the high numbers, which you could argue have been favoured this week, I like Normandy Barriere. He hails from a small Northern yard but his trainer has secured one of the best in the business to ride who is actually 3 from 4 on him (2nd in the other race). Our horse loves Ascot having been here 5 times, winning twice and placing on 2 other occasions. He’s done well on the draw front being in stall 26 and comes here at the top of his form, with form figures of 2-1 this term, recording 2 of his 3 best RPRs in the process.
In his career, he’s been since in 10 handicaps on good to firm; his stats could hardly be better, winning 5 and placing on 4 other occasions. He loves big fields, he needs a fast pace to aim at, fast ground is a prerequisite whilst the course & distance is perfect. He might come here off his highest ever mark but a 4lb rise for a good win last time out is not excessive. This lightly raced 5 year old still has improvement in him and I cannot leave him out of my calculations at a decent each way price.
Drawn 2, Amazour is our selection. Most of his form has been on the all weather but he’s selected off the back of a very impressive 3rd at Haydock in a conditions race he had no right to perform in. He was lowest rated of the 8 runners, yet gave 4lb to 6 of his 7 rivals. The 2 in front of him raced prominently throughout and he was the only one to make any ground from off the pace. According to RPRs, that was his best ever run in 21 starts. In fact, he’s recorded 5 of his 6 best RPRs in 5 of his last 6 starts with his mark only going up by 3lbs.
He’s been to Ascot twice, running very well once (the only time on good or better ground). That was in the Britannia 2 years ago which is 2 furlongs further than this, a trip he patently doesn’t stay. He raced off a similar mark to this and finished 6th of 28. He quickened well that day from off the pace and looked right in the hunt until the final 100 yards proved too much. In an open race, he could very well if repeating that impressive Haydock showing.
Back Normandy Barriere (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
Bet here:
Back Amazour (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 Ladbrokes BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
Bet here:
5.35: Queen Alexandra Stakes
The true ‘getting out stakes’ but I’m keeping my discipline and ignoring the longest race of the week. Good luck to anyone still going by this point. A truly great week.
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