Links golf remains the focus of attention on the European Tour for the second week in a row when the Scottish Open begins on Thursday. This is the third Rolex Series event in as many weeks and the fourth of the season and the field for the tournament is as good as you’ll ever find on the Tour.
With The Open next week many of the leading players in the world are descending on Scotland to finish their preparations for that as well as look to nail a sizeable cheque.
Recent Winners
2016 – Alex Noren
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Justin Rose
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Jeev Milkha Singh
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Eduardo Molinari
2009 – Martin Kaymer
2008 – Graeme McDowell
2007 – Gregory Havret
The Course
This is another of those tournaments which gets taken around the country and this year it is the turn of Dundonald Links to play host to it. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,100 yards and if the weather isn’t too bad this will be another birdie fest.
The course was designed by Kyle Phillips who designed Kingsbarns which is used in the Alfred Dunhill Links and it is said that he has modelled this course around that one so the greens are likely to be large and you’ll need to plot your way around it. He also designed The Grove so you’ll need to scramble well and as ever when an event is in Scotland you must pick players who can play in the wind.
The Field
As I said above the field this week is as good as you will find for a European Tour event. There are world class players everywhere you look with Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy bring a star profile to the event.
They are joined by the defending champion Alex Noren, The Open champion Henrik Stenson, American class acts Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar and former Masters winner Adam Scott who has an excellent record in The Open. Throw in some of Europe’s elite and this is going to take some winning.
Market Leaders
This week is a rare breed in that Rory McIlroy is not the favourite to win the golf tournament. That honour goes to Rickie Fowler who is 8/1 to reclaim the title he won two years ago. You would think he has the ideal game for this track so other than him being short in a field of this depth in quality there isn’t a lot not to like about the poster boy of the game.
Rory McIlroy is second favourite at 11/1 and without the pressures of hosting this week you would think he will go much better but his form is not good at the minute and his woes on the greens are becoming an ever increasing concern. Until he looks comfortable on the dancefloors again I can’t go near him.
Henrik Stenson won The Open in Scotland last year and will be aiming for another Scottish success here. He is 16/1 to win the tournament but he is another who doesn’t look to be on the top of his game and you can’t play links golf successfully if you are not as many players found out to their cost in Ireland last week.
Alex Noren is just a couple of points bigger to defend the title. He won the BMW PGA not long ago so we know he can win the big tournaments. He showed that when he won the British Masters last year on a Phillips course at The Grove. I don’t like defending champions as a rule as they have extra commitments but that is the only reason I can find not to back the Swede.
Adam Scott is next at 20/1. You’ll be taking a chance that he can go well relatively fresh but he has an excellent record in The Open which could offer confidence. I would imagine he’s here more with next week in mind than this one.
American pair Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar come after him at 22/1. Both men have had their successes in Scotland and are good players in the wind. It is hard to put anyone off either. It is 25/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
I’m going with a couple of main bets this week in what should be an absolutely belting tournament. Both these players can scramble which is a must and both have good records at either Kingsbarns or The Grove which I think could be significant.
Branden Grace has everything needed to go well here. He is a former winner of the Dunhill Links Championship where he fired a round of 60 at Kingsbarns which could be important here. He has also won his last two tries at the Qatar Masters so we know he loves the windy conditions. He can scramble with the best of them and as well as that 60 at Kingsbarns he has rounds of 64 and 65 there in the last three years. These sorts of course are the ones Grace gobbles up and he’s a decent price here.
Bernd Wiesberger is another who has good records around those two Phillips courses. He was second in the British Masters at The Grove last year and has four consecutive top 15 finishes in the Dunhill Links where his Kingsbarns rounds include a 66 and a 65 in that time. He was also in the play-off in the Irish Open in 2015 in those rotten conditions so if it gets tough he can hold his own. He has a good record on the Scottish links and being the fifth best scrambler on the European Tour will him no harm here either. He’s my other main bet.
Outsiders
I always like links golf to throw a few darts at some outsiders and I am definitely going to do that this week. I’ve found three to have a go at.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat could actually be considered a massive price at 125/1. He won the inaugural Paul Lawrie match play on a Scottish links course and he was in the top 12 at The Grove last year where he slammed in a 64 to finish. He was in the top five in his only entry into the Dunhill Links too which included a 63 at Kingsbarns so he loves playing in Scotland and we know from his efforts in events like Qatar, Thailand and the Olympics that he is a natural in the wind. At the price he is tough to ignore.
Another man who is tough to ignore is Anthony Wall. He is something of a links specialist himself. He was runner up to Alex Noren in the Paul Lawrie match play last year and was going great guns at the halfway stage last week when his tee to green game was immaculate. Wall was in the top 20 at The Grove last year and has rounds at Kingsbarns which include a 65 two years ago. He can shape his shots according to the wind and clearly has an affinity with this style of golf. At 200/1 I’ll take a chance he can get into the mix at halfway and this time stay there.
Joakim Lagergren has entered the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship twice and he has tied for fourth on both occasions. His Kingsbarns rounds in those efforts were 62 and 68. He was inside the top 20 at The Grove last year despite a four over first round. He would have been tied for fourth just by shooting level par in that round so he went well there too. He was runner up in Qatar earlier in the year so we know the Swede can handle the wind and it wasn’t too long ago he was really challenging in Germany heading into Sunday. With his liking for links golf he’s another crazy price worth backing.
Tips
Back B.Grace to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Lagergren to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back B.Wiesberger to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back A.Wall to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
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