There is one week to go before the first major of the year but before the attention heads to Magnolia Lane and the delights of Augusta National there is one more PGA Tour event to be played which is the Shell Houston Open which begins on Thursday.
Those who are already confirmed starters next week may be using this tournament to finalise their preparations but the majority of the players are teeing it up with the intention of winning not just for a title but to take the last spot into The Masters. Jim Herman did just that 12 months ago.
Recent Winners
2016 – Jim Herman
2015 – J-B Holmes
2014 – Matt Jones
2013 – D-A Points
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Phil Mickelson
2010 – Anthony Kim
2009 – Paul Casey
2008 – Johnson Wagner
2007 – Adam Scott
The Course
As ever for this tournament we are at the Golf Club of Houston with the Tournament Course there being the one used for the event. One of the attractions of this tournament for the players is that the organisers understand their position in the calendar and look to set the track up as close as possible to mirror Augusta National making it an excellent prep for next week.
With that in mind the 7,441 yard par 72 is very easy off the tee with relatively little rough to speak of. As with next week the keys around here are finding the greens in regulation, putting on what are large and undulating surfaces and scrambling from the tight run off areas.
Bunkers and water are in play on a number of holes so precise iron play is going to be a feature here. Players who go well around here tend to rank well for par 4 scoring too.
The Field
Although The Masters is just over a week away there is still a very strong field teeing it up this week. It was weakened at the beginning of the week with the withdrawal of Dustin Johnson but with the likes of Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose and Adam Scott all teeing it up there are major champions everywhere you look.
Former champions Jim Herman, JB Holmes, Matt Jones and Johnson Wagner are among those with tee times this week as are class acts in Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed and Billy Horschel. This should be a stellar week of golf.
Market Leaders
With Dustin Johnson now a non-runner Jordan Spieth is the favourite to win the tournament at 7/1. The 2015 Masters champion is local to the event and likes playing the week before The Masters but if his play last week was anything to go by his game isn’t in the shape he would like it in so this could be a week of finding form rather than targeting the title which puts me off him.
Last week’s runner-up Jon Rahm is the 11/1 second favourite. Whether he has another four big days in him after seven rounds in five days last week remains to be seen but he certainly sets up well for the course. He’s too short so soon after last week for my liking though.
Henrik Stenson might still be wondering how he didn’t win this last year but he appears in no such form this year so even at 14/1 I’m happy to pass him over. Rickie Fowler is a 16/1 chance and he has a real chance as do 22/1 pokes Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose. It is 28/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’m all for excellent drivers of the golf ball this week. I think those who can attack these greens with the shorter irons will deliver the best chance of success and with no trouble off the tees we can get after those who cream it off the tee. With that in mind I have two main bets.
Daniel Berger is a man I’ve admired for a while and have often backed him in these previews. He has had two spins around here finishing 25th in 2015 and then fifth last year and he backed up that run last year with a top 10 at Augusta which along with his PGA Tour title win has ensured he will tee it up next week. This is a time of year this excellent driver comes good and we saw good things from him at the Match Play last week when he demolished JB Holmes in the opening round. I fancy he’s primed for a huge week in Houston.
One man not yet in next week is Tony Finau and after sitting out last week in the hope he would sneak into the Match Play late on he should be fresh for a real tilt at this title. Finau is a huge driver of the ball but we’ve seen in recent times that the rest of his game is in good order too. Top five finishes in the Farmers Insurance Open and the Valspar show there is little wrong with Finau’s game and so on a course almost designed to suit him I’m backing him for a big week.
Outsiders
Given that there is a major next week and one last spot into it this tournament has been known to throw up a few surprise winners so there is scope for throwing a few darts deeper into the market.
Cameron Tringale has a decent record around this track and having backed him last week because there were shoots of him coming back to form I have to follow that up with a punt this week. Tringale’s six outings here have resulted in finishes of 73, 8, 16, 4, 5 and 57 and with someone who has the long game he does if the putter can get hot he won’t be far away.
Chris Wood didn’t have the Dell Match Play he would have liked but he concluded that week by taking Kevin Na to the absolute cleaners with a nine hole blitz that even Dustin Johnson would have had no answer to so there is nothing wrong with his game. Wood is a brilliant driver of the ball but the rest of his game is decent too. A lack of experience around the track could hamper him but at 150/1 I’m more than happy to pay to see if he can overcome that.
Johnson Wagner is a former champion around here and he lost in a playoff a couple of years ago in a week which rejuvenated his career. There is clearly something about the whole event which serves him well. He has absolutely no form to speak of but that was the case in 2008 when he won here and 2015 when he was runner-up. At 225/1 I’ll pay to see if he can draw enough inspiration to get in the mix again this week.
Tips
PLACED – Back D.Berger to win Shell Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Tringale to win Shell Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Wood to win Shell Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back T.Finau to win Shell Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Titanbet (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Wagner to win Shell Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 226.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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