We have reached August Bank Holiday weekend which means that it is time for the final Grand Slam of 2017 to begin. The stars of the tennis world descend on New York for the next fortnight for the US Open, for my money the pick of the four Slams.
I always think this is a truest test of the majors. You get no bad bounces and very rarely does extreme heat come into play so the best player over the fortnight usually comes out as the champion. That is what happened for Stan Wawrinka 12 months ago.
Recent Winners
2016 – Stan Wawrinka
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Marin Cilic
2013 – Rafael Nadal
2012 – Andy Murray
2011 – Novak Djokovic
2010 – Rafael Nadal
2009 – Juan Martin del Potro
2008 – Roger Federer
2007 – Roger Federer
The Format
The traditional format of the best of five sets is in operation here as ever. This is one of the Grand Slams that does have a tiebreak in the final set though. The draw has been completed already and the tournament is a knockout event right from the start with the final on the second Sunday.
Top Quarter
Number one seed Rafael Nadal is the headline act in this top quarter of the draw. He will be looking for a third New York title but Grigor Dimitrov poses a significant obstacle in this section. The other seeds are Richard Gasquet, Fabio Fognini, Tomas Berdych, David Goffin, Gael Monfils and Pablo Cuevas so this section is not easy.
It is made tougher by some dangerous outsiders too. Viktor Troicki’s best days may be behind him but he can still play when he’s on it while last week’s runner-up Damir Dzumhur is also housed here. Aljaz Bedene provides a British interest in the quarter.
Second Quarter
All eyes will be on Roger Federer to see if he can come through this quarter. As the second quarter often is this is a tough looking portion of the draw. In terms of seeds Federer needs to negotiate through Feliciano Lopez, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nick Kyrgios, last week’s WS Open winner Roberto Bautista Agut, Juan Martin del Potro, Adrian Mannarino and Dominic Thiem. If he is to set up the dream semi he’ll have to do it the hard way.
There are some tasty players who are not seeded too such as Ivo Karlovic, Fernando Verdasco and Dustin Brown so this will be a tournament in itself almost this quarter.
Third Quarter
This is the section which looks very open in light of the late withdrawal of Andy Murray. Alexander Zverev now heads the seedings in this part of the draw. He faces plenty of big hitters as fellow seeds. Sam Querrey, Karen Khachanov, Mischa Zverev, John Isner, Jack Sock, Gilles Muller and Kevin Anderson are the other seeds here.
The unseeded players are no mugs in this section either. They include Gilles Simon, Benoit Paire, Jordan Thompson, Joao Sousa, Bernard Tomic and Borna Coric among others in a strong looking quarter.
Bottom Quarter
Marin Cilic heads the list of seeds in the bottom quarter with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga seeded to be his main danger. The others who have been seeded here are Robin Haase, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Pablo Carreno Busta, Lucas Pouille and David Ferrer.
There are some great unseeded players in this part of the draw too. Denis Shapovalov was a semi-finalist in Montreal recently while Daniil Medvedev is a huge talent too. Steve Johnson and Nicolas Almagro are both unseeded players in this quarter while Kyle Edmund and Cameron Norrie add more than a smidgeon of British flavour to it.
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Betting
With Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the same half of the draw and Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka all absent there is only one place to focus on outright bets this week and that is the bottom half where we are guaranteed a finalist who is not part of the ‘big 5’.
I took Marin Cilic to win Wimbledon and he went all the way until he ran into an unbeatable Federer but he may not face Federer in the final here and even if he does the gulf between the two is nowhere near as large on this surface. If anything Cilic could even have an edge. There are a lot of big servers in this bottom half of the draw but not many have the ground game that the Croatian does and at 18/1 he’s excellent value to win a second New York crown.
American’s don’t have a great record in this tournament but I can’t resist a little punt on John Isner in the bottom half of the draw too. Since Wimbledon, six weeks ago, Isner has won in Newport and Atlanta and been a semi-finalist in Cincinnati so he’s in very good form right now. Best of five is different but if he keeps serving well he could exploit a weak looking quarter where the Grand Slam credentials of Alex Zverev don’t yet convince me.
Tips
Back M.Cilic to win US Open (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 19.00 with Titanbet (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back J.Isner to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betbright (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
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