The final World Golf Championships event takes place this week when the main tours take the regular stop to China for the HSBC Champions. This tournament is another select field which encompasses the best players in the world for a huge prize pool and plenty of world ranking points.
Hideki Matsuyama proved his class in this tournament last year and he’ll be looking to make a successful defence of his title this week but as ever with a WGC event he faces some stiff competition.
Recent Winners
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama
2015 – Russell Knox
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Dustin Johnson
2012 – Ian Poulter
2011 – Martin Kaymer
2010 – Francesco Molinari
2009 – Phil Mickelson
The Course
Sheshan International Golf Club is the venue for the tournament this week, as it has been since 2013. The one thing we know heading into this tournament is that whoever wins will most likely go low. Winning scores here are often lower than -20.
With that in mind the key requirements are to find plenty of greens in regulation and putt extremely well. The longer hitters do have an advantage in that they can reduce the par 5s to more manageable holes but Russell Knox showed two years ago that there is more than one way to skin this particular cat.
The Field
Usually this field is of the very highest quality but there are some notable absentees this week. There is no Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia or Rickie Fowler which gives the tournament a more open feel.
Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Marc Leishman and Jason Day all give the tournament some strong flavour while the best of Europe are here too in the form of Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Jon Rahm. This tournament will still take some winning even allowing for the high profile absentees.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is the 9/1 favourite this week. That is fair enough but this will be his first tournament since the Presidents Cup so it could be that he is a little rusty and in an event where low scoring is necessary that might not be the ideal situation. If he is on it from the start then he is a worthy favourite but given his inactivity he could be a little on the short side.
Hideki Matsuyama is a 10/1 second favourite. His finished last season in a right slump but broke out of it with a fairly decent run in the CIMB Classic in Malaysia a couple of weeks ago and he will be looking to build on that here. He will have plenty of support and should not be underestimated but he is plenty short enough too.
The Australian pair of Marc Leishman and Jason Day are joined by Jon Rahm as third favourites for the week at 18/1. Leishman is in great form and if he has got over his play-off defeat to Justin Thomas last week he should go very well. The course should suit Rahm but him being a debutant is not ideal at the price he is. The same goes for Day.
Paul Casey and Justin Rose are both 20/1 to win the tournament but neither win nearly enough for me to be interested in either in a field of this kind. It is 22/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Whenever a golf tournament heads to China and Ross Fisher tees it up I am interested and that is especially the case this week given the form he brings into the event with him. He was runner up in his last two outings – the Dunhill Links and the Italian Open – both in very strong fields, and his form here is bang on with three top 10 finishes including two in the last two years. He’s hitting his long shots as well as ever and if the putts drop he should be right there.
Daniel Berger has form figures of 11-2 on this course and he arrives here a significantly better player than he was in either of those renewals which makes me think he can contend. Those form figures came in more stacked fields that the one which opposes him here which is promising. He had a fantastic Presidents Cup and although he wasn’t at the races last week the long journey and getting back into solo golf could have played a part in that. If it did we can forgive him and expect him to go well here.
Outsiders
I wouldn’t normally have three outsiders in a reduced field event such as this one but I’m going to allow myself a third as it is a gut feel at a very big price. The other two are genuine big priced contenders.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat has been in good form on the European Tour recently which culminated in his runner up finish in the Italian Open which he would have won but for one duffed chip on the 71st hole. I can forgive him that though and even though his record around this track isn’t the best his previous form in Asia is very solid. The form he’s in he should be a contender here.
Alex Levy tends to go well in this part of the world. He has two wins and a third in the China Open and lost a play-off in the BMW Masters. If that isn’t enough he was fourth in Shenzhen last year so there is something about China which clicks with the Frenchman. He ran hot at the Alfred Dunhill earlier in the month and with that form behind him he appears a big price here.
Ashun Wu could be anything this week but his greens in regulation record on the European Tour means we should not ignore him completely. He will have home crowds behind him which can never be underestimated and with Haotong Li in the field he may go slightly under the radar to begin with. If he can continue to his greens in the right number and the putter hots up from the off he might deliver something significant.
Tips
Back R.Fisher to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back D.Berger to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betbright (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with LeoVegas (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back A.Levy to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back A.Wu to win HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 401.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back them here:
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