There are two tournaments on the European Tour this week with the first of them coming from down under as the Australia PGA Championship is played out on the Gold Coast. This is a title that is becoming more prestigious as it goes along and carries a good deal of profile this week.
Cameron Smith defends the title he won here last year but with the World Cup having been in Australia last week a number of good players have stayed on in Australia to compete against him in this event. That should make for a decent week of golf.
Recent Winners
2017 – Cameron Smith
2016 – Harold Varner III
2015 – Nathan Holman
2014 – Greg Chalmers
2013 – Adam Scott
The Course
We are back for more at the RACV Royal Pines Resort down on the Gold Coast in Queensland this week. This course is really beginning to flourish as a host track but we have seen in the past that when the wind blows it can be a real monster. There are chances for a bit of wind over the weekend which will keep everyone honest.
The course is a par 72 which measures 7,364 yards so it isn’t massively long as it will play firm and fast but there is plenty of water in play and as with most top notch Australian courses there is a large amount of sand in play too so accuracy is a big thing here. The proficiency to play in the wind should not be ignored here either.
The Field
Both of the men who represented Australia in the World Cup last week are here which means that defending champion Cameron Smith is joined by Marc Leishman in the field. Former champion Harold Varner III is also teeing it up in this tournament this week.
Some good youngsters such as Lucas Herbert and Sean Crocker are here along with some experienced Australians such as Wade Ormsby, Jason Scrivener and another former champion in Greg Chalmers. Adrian Otaegui tees it up here while Andrew Johnston adds plenty of profile to the field.
Market Leaders
Marc Leishman starts out in the tournament as a 5/1 favourite and it is hard to argue with that as he would look like the most likely winner when you look at the field but there isn’t really much wiggle room with his price. He either needs to win or he’s not worth backing and with the wind being a big thing this week and adding a fragility to proceedings I’m not sure he is worth the hassle despite his obvious chances.
The same can be said for the second favourite Cameron Smith who is an 11/2 poke to make a successful defence of the title. I’m never one for defending champions per se anyway but particularly not at this price. In fairness to Smith his short game looked the business at the World Cup last week which will serve him well but the price does little or nothing for me.
Harold Varner III has a tremendous record around here. He has won the title in 2016 and has registered a couple of other top 10s so there is clearly something about the Gold Coast that suits him and his game. He is 10/1 to reclaim the crown here but that isn’t really a price that floats my boat even allowing for his strong record here. The field this year looks stronger and I don’t think his price is a true reflection of his chances.
Lucas Herbert is making big strides on the European Tour and you would fancy if his breakthrough is going to come it would come on this side of the world with the courses in Europe not always suiting him. He is a big hitter who can open up any hole with his length off the tee but whether he can put four rounds together is open to debate. That would be my concern when taking 18/1 on him. He’s not quite for me.
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Main Bets
One man stands out in this field to me when I look down it and that is Adrian Otaegui. This course should suit him very nicely and we know he is in excellent touch from his strong showing in Dubai a couple of weeks ago on a course which should have been much too long for him. He was also third on another track that might not have suited in Turkey in the Final Series last month too so he’s in good touch. His accuracy from tee to green should put him in good spots here and if his putter remains hot he might well be the one to beat.
Renato Paratore looked pretty decent at the World Cup last week but was held back slightly by his partner Andrea Pavan not being absolutely at his best. There is no excuses for the young Italian this week though and I wonder if he can take his personal form from that tournament into this week and produce a big showing. We know Paratore can play in the wind and we know he can make a lot of birdies. That is a combination that can serve him well here.
Outsiders
Terry Pilkadaris is seventh on the Australian PGA order of merit despite the fact he has only played in six tournaments this year so when he does tee it up down under he has a decent record. The highlight of his campaign was a runner up spot in New Zealand but since then he was tied second in the Fiji International before a final round to forget. He is the sort of player who should enjoy this course and while he’s a long shot I’m not convinced he’s a 150/1 sort of shot. Given his record in home events I think he is a chance worth taking.
Richard Green has lost his playing rights on the European Tour and there is only one way to get them back now – to win this tournament. That is pressure of course but at least he will be in conditions that he is familiar with and will not lack for motivation. He was in the top six here back in 2015 so we know he can handle the track at its toughest and actually if the wind does blow it might suit him. He’s another long shot at 250/1 but given what he’s playing for he’s a chance worth taking.
Tips
Back A.Otaegui to win Australia PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back R.Paratore to win Australia PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back T.Pilkadaris to win Australia PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Unibet (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back R.Green to win Australia PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-6)
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